General Economic chit chat/updates.

[Johnny_P]

Natural gas moves a lot of energy very efficiently. Gotta make up those BTUs somehow. Going to be interesting for sure.

yup. and when you shut off your baseload coal and nuclear (in germany's case) and use NG as the stopgap for electrical power...assuming its just always going to come through the Russian pipe... and mandate heat pumps.... you are still at a ~25% loss in thermal efficiency before transmission losses vs just burning the NG for heat. (NB: combustion as a heat source is nearly 100% efficient, the best combined cycle NG plants are like 50%) Its like they've shot themselves in the foot 3 times.

NG power plants, combined with NG space heating going to electric heat pumps, they’ve increased their required load dramatically in the past years. To just shut it off… your power grid would need to move a lot more than it’s set up to currently.

[max225]

Y'all see Britain's energy debacle??

https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/how-na ... approaches

£10k electricity bills to small restaurant owners causing instant closures! The Russia embargo is going to crush Europe at this rate.

Sucks to suck. But I’m really thinking it’s part of a larger plan we’re not in on as peasants.

[Tar]

Y'all see Britain's energy debacle??

https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/how-na ... approaches

£10k electricity bills to small restaurant owners causing instant closures! The Russia embargo is going to crush Europe at this rate.

Sucks to suck. But I’m really thinking it’s part of a larger plan we’re not in on as peasants.

They can try to do stuff like this but people will show up with pitch forks and torches when they start freezing or starving. I'm on the EU RN

[Tar]

Y'all see Britain's energy debacle??

https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/how-na ... approaches

£10k electricity bills to small restaurant owners causing instant closures! The Russia embargo is going to crush Europe at this rate.

Sucks to suck. But I’m really thinking it’s part of a larger plan we’re not in on as peasants.

DP

[max225]

Sucks to suck. But I’m really thinking it’s part of a larger plan we’re not in on as peasants.

They can try to do stuff like this but people will show up with pitch forks and torches when they start freezing or starving. I'm on the EU RN

They have spun people against each other for decades most are too dumb to look up and are looking at eating their neighbor first

[Tar]

They can try to do stuff like this but people will show up with pitch forks and torches when they start freezing or starving. I'm on the EU RN

They have spun people against each other for decades most are too dumb to look up and are looking at eating their neighbor first

The whole eastern block was commie for a long time. People I talk to here are livid when it comes to human rights violations so I want to believe that it will be
But who knows, you're probably right and they will just bicker with each other until they starve. Why are we like this?

[golftdibrad1]

They can try to do stuff like this but people will show up with pitch forks and torches when they start freezing or starving. I'm on the EU RN

They have spun people against each other for decades most are too dumb to look up and are looking at eating their neighbor first

note to self: Dont be Max's neighbor.

[Tar]

So I figured on the government's plan to raise rates to fuck with the middle class while printing like lunatics on the back end. However, a restricted M2 growth along with rising rates is

I think I'm going to have a talk with the wife unit about selling the cottage. This could bring more ugliness then I thought.




https://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/markets ... b99e27c949

Steve Hanke, a professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University, said that he believes the U.S. is heading for a “whopper” of a recession next year, but it’s not necessarily because of higher benchmark interest rates.

“We will have a recession because we’ve had five months of zero M2 growth–money supply growth, and the Fed isn’t even looking at it,” Hanke said in an interview with CNBC on Monday. “We’re going to have one whopper of a recession in 2023.”

M2 is a measure of the money supply that includes cash, checking and saving deposits, and shares in retail money mutual funds. Widely used as an indicator of the amount of currency in circulation, the M2 measure has stagnated since February 2022, following “an unprecedented growth of money supply” starting with the COVID-19 pandemic in February 2020. (See chart below)

“There had never been sustained inflation in world history – that is inflation above 4% for about two years – that had not been the result of unprecedented growth of money supply, which we had starting with COVID in February of 2020,” Hanke said. “That is why we’re having inflation now, and that’s why, by the way, we will continue to have inflation through 2023 going into probably 2024.”

U.S. inflation eased in July with the Consumer Price Index increasing 8.5% from a year earlier, down from a 41-year high of 9.1% in June, raising hopes that a surge in price level may have peaked.

But according to Hanke, he predicted last year that U.S. inflation would be somewhere between 6% and 9% in 2022. “We hit the bullseye with that model. Now the model is running at between 6% and 8% at the end of this year on a year-over-year basis, and 5% at the end of 2023 going into 2024,” he told CNBC.

See: Fed likely needs to push interest rates above 3.5%, and hold them there until 2024, Williams says

However, Chair Powell reaffirmed in his Jackson Hole speech last Friday that the central bank still plans to continue raising interest rates to return inflation to their 2% target, even if it results in “some pain” for U.S. households and businesses.

“The problem we have is that the Chairman does not understand, even at this point, what the causes of inflation are and were,” Hanke said. “He’s still going on about supply-side glitches. He has failed to tell us that inflation is always caused by excess growth in the money supply, turning the printing presses on.”

Hanke is not the only one predicting a much deeper economic downturn that could last into 2024. Stephen Roach, former chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia and former Federal Reserve economist, warns the U.S. needs a “miracle” to avoid a recession.

“We’ll definitely have a recession as the lagged impacts of this major monetary tightening start to kick in,” Roach told CNBC on Monday. “They haven’t kicked in at all right now.”

Roach said Chairman Powell has no choice but to take a Paul Volcker approach to tightening. Volcker served as the 12th chair of the Federal Reserve from 1979 to 1987. During his tenure, Volcker aggressively hiked interest rates and successfully wrung inflation out of the economy, but at a great cost – tipping the economy into two consecutive recessions with stock market crashes and high unemployment.

“Go back to the type of pain Paul Volcker had to impose on the U.S. economy to ring out inflation. He had to take the unemployment rate above 10%,” said Roach.

The unemployment rate was back to its pre-pandemic level in July and tied for the lowest since 1969. Nonfarm payrolls rose 528,000 in July, and the unemployment rate stood at 3.5%.

However, markets await the August U.S. jobs report which is scheduled for release on Friday. Wall Street estimates the nonfarm payroll will show the economy adding 318,000 jobs in August. The unemployment rate is projected to stay flat at 3.5%, while the average hourly earnings are estimated to rise 0.4% following a 0.5% rise the previous month.

[max225]

I don’t understand this whole “will have a recession” it’s fucking here until the White House decided to change the literal definition of the term.

[Tar]

I don’t understand this whole “will have a recession” it’s fucking here until the White House decided to change the literal definition of the term.

Elections?

[golftdibrad1]

I don’t understand this whole “will have a recession” it’s fucking here until the White House decided to change the literal definition of the term.

Elections?

[Tar]

Elections?

[golftdibrad1]

re: eu power crisis, related

[golftdibrad1]

re: eu power crisis, related

[Johnny_P]

I still wear a mask. Guess I’m just an idiot. Wife’s mother is on immune suppressants so we are trying to be extra cautious. Haven’t gotten the vid despite living in the city.

[wap]

I still wear a mask. Guess I’m just an idiot. Wife’s mother is on immune suppressants so we are trying to be extra cautious. Haven’t gotten the vid despite living in the city.

Same here, in indoor public spaces, not outdoors. My mother is 91 and quite frail so I don't want to potentially give her anything. I also haven't been sick-at all-in 3 years.

[golftdibrad1]

I still wear a mask. Guess I’m just an idiot. Wife’s mother is on immune suppressants so we are trying to be extra cautious. Haven’t gotten the vid despite living in the city.

Doesn't seem very effective at stopping shit to me.

Your a mechanical engineer bud, you are supposed to understand filtration on a basic level.

Here is an expert giving some testimony. Re: using masks as a control to stop asbestos: "I would lose my license to practice if i recommended that as a control" The aerosols that virions ride on are much, much smaller.
https://metatron.substack.com/p/everyth ... know-about

[Johnny_P]

I still wear a mask. Guess I’m just an idiot. Wife’s mother is on immune suppressants so we are trying to be extra cautious. Haven’t gotten the vid despite living in the city.

Doesn't seem very effective at stopping shit to me.

Your a mechanical engineer bud, you are supposed to understand filtration on a basic level.

Here is an expert giving some testimony. Re: using masks as a control to stop asbestos: "I would lose my license to practice if i recommended that as a control" The aerosols that virions ride on are much, much smaller.
https://metatron.substack.com/p/everyth ... know-about

Surgical masks don’t do shit other than catch larger boogers or mucous droplets, agreed. N95 or HEPA respirators have been in use for years for asbestos and lead abatement with proven results. I’ve been using N95s exclusively.

But either way, not trying to argue with you about Covid precautions. You can do what you want and I can do what’s being asked of me by concerned family members. We all have individual choice here.

[golftdibrad1]

N95 or HEPA respirators have been in use for years for asbestos and lead abatement with proven results. I’ve been using N95s exclusively.

Not arguing that point, because they are indeed a type of respirator with some real efficacy.

Cloth or surgical? zero efficacy.

[max225]

Yo can we stick to economic doom and gloom please. Don’t wanna get this boneyarded

[golftdibrad1]

Yo can we stick to economic doom and gloom please. Don’t wanna get this boneyarded

Johnny started it

[Tar]

Yo can we stick to economic doom and gloom please. Don’t wanna get this boneyarded

Johnny started it

Lool, you so extra. I do love that almost nobody GAF anymore. Hope it stays that way.

[max225]

I just hope to keep a spot to talk about the economy... Y'all see Nvidia today (-11%)... That pelosi trade saved her hubby 600k before they hit Nvidia with restrictions.

[golftdibrad1]

Johnny started it

Lool, you so extra. I do love that almost nobody GAF anymore. Hope it stays that way.

The coming world war and economic consequences of it will officially end covid season, and save those responsible from indictment via its distraction.

Although I can't wait to see how the new lower carbon US war machine works.



Anyway, China is about to take Twain, where the microchips come from. Gonna set back tech sector 10 years.

[Tar]

Doom and gloomers, get ready for popcorn. I don't know what the phenomenon is exactly, but numerous houses in my subdivision that weren't selling all of a sudden have sold signs on their lawns. No rhyme or reason, but I'm trying to find out why. Will update if I discover more.