Car Talk 6: Best of times and Worst of Times

[Desertbreh]

And yes airfare kind of sucks. At $161/nt on the hotel though, that's ok.

[CaleDeRoo]

My mom also loves NOLA and is considering a winter place there. I've never been though.

[Desertbreh]

My mom also loves NOLA and is considering a winter place there. I've never been though.

Left to my own devices I would likely rent a place there every December. It's fucking great that time of year.

[CaleDeRoo]

My mom also loves NOLA and is considering a winter place there. I've never been though.

Left to my own devices I would likely rent a place there every December. It's fucking great that time of year.

I'll give you DFD discount.

[Desertbreh]

Left to my own devices I would likely rent a place there every December. It's fucking great that time of year.

I'll give you DFD discount.

You'll be using it yourself. As a card carrying pool shooting cocktail swilling with a nice bit of muchies later kind of guy, you will find it to your liking.

[D Griff]

When it happens en masse for an entire area, it pushes out lower income people just looking to live. Apartment buildings are being converted to condos for "investors" to buy and turn into STR, and all those renters have nowhere to go. Houses that used to be $100k are $300k min and being sold above ask and being turned into STRs instantly. Those homes before would have sold to a young family or someone buying their first house, now there's no options for those people, so they're leaving.

Who cares about the low income people right? Good riddance?

Well, who are the servers at restaurants? Who comes out to fix your water softener? Who trims trees or does road maintenance? Low income folks are the backbone of the economy, like it or not. In Traverse City, they're being pushed to communities that are 20-30 miles away. So the server making $5/hr (in Michigan, servers can be paid below minimum wage since tips make up for it) is driving 40 miles round trip with $5/gal gas to just be treated like garbage by rich assholes completely out of touch with reality and tipping them 10% or less. OH and since all the low income people are being forced to the same areas, traffic on the few 2-lane roads that go in and out of those areas is SAVAGE from like 6-8am and 4-6pm. So these folks are driving 40-60 miles round trip per day that probably takes over an hour minimum sitting in traffic on 2 lane roads that were never intended to serve so many vehicles.

Many are leaving the area entirely, and I don't blame them. We're going to be a community of rich people with nobody to do any actual work. That's not going to end well at all. And the biggest rub, if there's no servers or service industry workers, tourism is toast. So all these STRs will be worthless and it's by their own doing.

You can blame STRs for a bit of that but don't think prices are 300% up in areas where AirBnB occupies 1% or less of the properties.

Immigration/population growth in desirable markets, inflation are the main influences in those markets. How can it not have impact in a tourism destination like the one you and your wife AirBnB in for years before your move?

You're certainly not wrong, there are many causes but I think it's one of the biggest. Fact is, many companies and people are buying up a lot of the properties and that drives prices up. Some are STR, some just sit, some are turned into traditional rentals but rent prices (at least where I live) are 3X what they were 10 years ago.

though, I don't really have answers. Our entire system is predicated on constant growth which is also destroying the planet and will eventually destroy us along with it. All fun and games for now

[D Griff]

My best friend just went out there to try and "invest" in his next place to stay and work remote... he did pretty well by buying in the outskirts of Austin for 230k... and having a $1200 mortgage. however... he was pretty with the level of dirt/poverty/crime over in NOLA and changed his mind.

He just came back after a 8 day trip where he toured places with a RE Agent.... Is that or is it like French quarter or bust out there?

Btw I couldn't ever figure out why NOLA costs way more to fly to than NY and Hawaii for me. Every time I thought "id like to pay a visit" I realize its $550-800 RT per person and that sours real fast.

I would not live full time in NOLA, or anyplace else in Louisiana because of the insufferable heat PLUS humidity. French Quarter is actually too touristy and has no parking/garages unless super $$$$...would not live there. Most residents live in the burbs.....Metaire and the like. Houses that look like you would expect your NOLA house to look be found in the Irish Channel and the Garden District and a few other areas which are SIMILAR to the FQuarter. Also right next to the FQ is Marigy Treme which I would consider. The reality is a lot of NOLA proper is Johnny P or Griff living.....short on car guy homes.

I like to visit. Great bars and restaurants, great music. I don't consider it any "grittier" San Francisco, but there are obviously parts to be avoided. If you feel it is your vested right as an American to walk around drunk at 1 a.m. with a $15,000 watch unmolested, it may not be for you. The food is without parallel in America, NY and SF included, IMHO.

I love NOLA and agree with this. It would be a dope place to live right after college or something when you want to go out and party all of the time. It's a tourist destination that is more fun than Las Vegas and feels a bit more cultured a destination than Adult Disneyland in the Desert. There are many neat old neighborhoods with great architecture, awesome live music, food/drink, a great weekend with the bros kind of place.

[Desertbreh]

I would not live full time in NOLA, or anyplace else in Louisiana because of the insufferable heat PLUS humidity. French Quarter is actually too touristy and has no parking/garages unless super $$$$...would not live there. Most residents live in the burbs.....Metaire and the like. Houses that look like you would expect your NOLA house to look be found in the Irish Channel and the Garden District and a few other areas which are SIMILAR to the FQuarter. Also right next to the FQ is Marigy Treme which I would consider. The reality is a lot of NOLA proper is Johnny P or Griff living.....short on car guy homes.

I like to visit. Great bars and restaurants, great music. I don't consider it any "grittier" San Francisco, but there are obviously parts to be avoided. If you feel it is your vested right as an American to walk around drunk at 1 a.m. with a $15,000 watch unmolested, it may not be for you. The food is without parallel in America, NY and SF included, IMHO.

I love NOLA and agree with this. It would be a dope place to live right after college or something when you want to go out and party all of the time. It's a tourist destination that is more fun than Las Vegas and feels a bit more cultured a destination than Adult Disneyland in the Desert. There are many neat old neighborhoods with great architecture, awesome live music, food/drink, a great weekend with the bros kind of place.

+25 Billion on NOLA completely dominating Las Vegas as an "adult" destination. It is worth $1000 in airfare to simply not set foot in Las Vegas. What a shithole.

[Tar]

You can blame STRs for a bit of that but don't think prices are 300% up in areas where AirBnB occupies 1% or less of the properties.

Immigration/population growth in desirable markets, inflation are the main influences in those markets. How can it not have impact in a tourism destination like the one you and your wife AirBnB in for years before your move?

You're certainly not wrong, there are many causes but I think it's one of the biggest. Fact is, many companies and people are buying up a lot of the properties and that drives prices up. Some are STR, some just sit, some are turned into traditional rentals but rent prices (at least where I live) are 3X what they were 10 years ago.

though, I don't really have answers. Our entire system is predicated on constant growth which is also destroying the planet and will eventually destroy us along with it. All fun and games for now

Thanks for sharing your thoughts on this. I disagree with it being one of the biggest, but I don't have stats on what percentage of the housing market falls into this category of ownership.

I sense that people are having a hard time with house and rent appreciation in general, borrowing costs are going up so properties are dropping in value. Even if they drop 25% the poor people being displaced still won't be able to buy the homes, and it's got nothing to do with the odd corporation buying s few of them up to rent or sell when the market recovers. In 2008 the banking sector collapsed because every wannabe home owner actually got their wish, and bought their homes on bad loans that were being doled out. That was the American dream, people were getting so much credit that they could buy a house and a dope car without proof of employment. Once that shit fell apart, so did credit, and almost nobody was able to buy a 90k house that's now worth 350k... So what would y'all like to see happen next?? Give every homeless person a house that some big bad corp bought in 2009/2010 from a bank after it was repossessed?

We forget this shit so quickly, it amazes me.

Also, I bought my place for half of its current market value (at the peak I guess), and I did so because I knew this shit was going to go up. How did I know that it would do so you may ask? Easy... the market influences were there: 1. Low rates 2. High rates of immigration into concentrated areas 3. Inflation expectations 4. Unbridled gov spending. The corp home buying firms are merely a byproduct of shitty government policies.

Just like stocks/bonds/bitcoins/Mona Lisas, real estate is an investment, it can go up or down. Do we get mad when stock holders see realized gainzz? No, so how is this business so different?

[ChrisoftheNorth]

You're certainly not wrong, there are many causes but I think it's one of the biggest. Fact is, many companies and people are buying up a lot of the properties and that drives prices up. Some are STR, some just sit, some are turned into traditional rentals but rent prices (at least where I live) are 3X what they were 10 years ago.

though, I don't really have answers. Our entire system is predicated on constant growth which is also destroying the planet and will eventually destroy us along with it. All fun and games for now

Thanks for sharing your thoughts on this. I disagree with it being one of the biggest, but I don't have stats on what percentage of the housing market falls into this category of ownership.

I sense that people are having a hard time with house and rent appreciation in general, borrowing costs are going up so properties are dropping in value. Even if they drop 25% the poor people being displaced still won't be able to buy the homes, and it's got nothing to do with the odd corporation buying s few of them up to rent or sell when the market recovers. In 2008 the banking sector collapsed because every wannabe home owner actually got their wish, and bought their homes on bad loans that were being doled out. That was the American dream, people were getting so much credit that they could buy a house and a dope car without proof of employment. Once that shit fell apart, so did credit, and almost nobody was able to buy a 90k house that's now worth 350k... So what would y'all like to see happen next?? Give every homeless person a house that some big bad corp bought in 2009/2010 from a bank after it was repossessed?

We forget this shit so quickly, it amazes me.

Also, I bought my place for half of its current market value (at the peak I guess), and I did so because I knew this shit was going to go up. How did I know that it would do so you may ask? Easy... the market influences were there: 1. Low rates 2. High rates of immigration into concentrated areas 3. Inflation expectations 4. Unbridled gov spending. The corp home buying firms are merely a byproduct of shitty government policies.

Just like stocks/bonds/bitcoins/Mona Lisas, real estate is an investment, it can go up or down. Do we get mad when stock holders see realized gainzz? No, so how is this business so different?

Max mentioned it in his rant, but real estate as an investment just seems inherently wrong. I know it's a product of our economy and there's no real way around it in a mostly free market, but shelter is a core human necessity and allowing the ownership of a core human necessity to excessively transfer to the wealthy and corps is hard for me. No, everyone doesn't "deserve" to buy a home, but at the same time, the opportunity should be there. I couldn't afford my own house now, and probably not anywhere in my area even. In my case, it's just rich people moving here paying whatever it costs to be here, which is fine and again a product of the mostly free market.

But there's a legit housing shortage...a shortage of a basic human necessity...and many have chosen to capitalize on it at the expensive of the working class. That frustrates me. Maybe unnecessarily so, but I don't see how this is going to end well in any way shape or form.

[Tar]

Thanks for sharing your thoughts on this. I disagree with it being one of the biggest, but I don't have stats on what percentage of the housing market falls into this category of ownership.

I sense that people are having a hard time with house and rent appreciation in general, borrowing costs are going up so properties are dropping in value. Even if they drop 25% the poor people being displaced still won't be able to buy the homes, and it's got nothing to do with the odd corporation buying s few of them up to rent or sell when the market recovers. In 2008 the banking sector collapsed because every wannabe home owner actually got their wish, and bought their homes on bad loans that were being doled out. That was the American dream, people were getting so much credit that they could buy a house and a dope car without proof of employment. Once that shit fell apart, so did credit, and almost nobody was able to buy a 90k house that's now worth 350k... So what would y'all like to see happen next?? Give every homeless person a house that some big bad corp bought in 2009/2010 from a bank after it was repossessed?

We forget this shit so quickly, it amazes me.

Also, I bought my place for half of its current market value (at the peak I guess), and I did so because I knew this shit was going to go up. How did I know that it would do so you may ask? Easy... the market influences were there: 1. Low rates 2. High rates of immigration into concentrated areas 3. Inflation expectations 4. Unbridled gov spending. The corp home buying firms are merely a byproduct of shitty government policies.

Just like stocks/bonds/bitcoins/Mona Lisas, real estate is an investment, it can go up or down. Do we get mad when stock holders see realized gainzz? No, so how is this business so different?

Max mentioned it in his rant, but real estate as an investment just seems inherently wrong. I know it's a product of our economy and there's no real way around it in a mostly free market, but shelter is a core human necessity and allowing the ownership of a core human necessity to excessively transfer to the wealthy and corps is hard for me. No, everyone doesn't "deserve" to buy a home, but at the same time, the opportunity should be there. I couldn't afford my own house now, and probably not anywhere in my area even. In my case, it's just rich people moving here paying whatever it costs to be here, which is fine and again a product of the mostly free market.

But there's a legit housing shortage...a shortage of a basic human necessity...and many have chosen to capitalize on it at the expensive of the working class. That frustrates me. Maybe unnecessarily so, but I don't see how this is going to end well in any way shape or form.

Yeah it's a tough pill to swallow, and I agree that people need shelter within a living wage. It's sad and I'm worried that it will keep getting worse for everyone but poor people will get hit the hardest. Maybe with lower house prices to come, more people can buy the houses cheaper and offer lower rent as a result? Guess we will see soon enough.

[ChrisoftheNorth]

Max mentioned it in his rant, but real estate as an investment just seems inherently wrong. I know it's a product of our economy and there's no real way around it in a mostly free market, but shelter is a core human necessity and allowing the ownership of a core human necessity to excessively transfer to the wealthy and corps is hard for me. No, everyone doesn't "deserve" to buy a home, but at the same time, the opportunity should be there. I couldn't afford my own house now, and probably not anywhere in my area even. In my case, it's just rich people moving here paying whatever it costs to be here, which is fine and again a product of the mostly free market.

But there's a legit housing shortage...a shortage of a basic human necessity...and many have chosen to capitalize on it at the expensive of the working class. That frustrates me. Maybe unnecessarily so, but I don't see how this is going to end well in any way shape or form.

Yeah it's a tough pill to swallow, and I agree that people need shelter within a living wage. It's sad and I'm worried that it will keep getting worse for everyone but poor people will get hit the hardest. Maybe with lower house prices to come, more people can buy the houses cheaper and offer lower rent as a result? Guess we will see soon enough.

I'm not sure what it's like in Canada, but right now, new builds and housing starts are way below where they need to be to keep up with demand. Up here, everyone blames lack of workers, not money...and I think we as a society are starting to pay the price for forcing every child into college while talking down on trades that we desperately need. Worse, many contractors went belly-up in 08 and found new lines of work, so production capacity is less than before AND we're not increasing it. This is why I don't believe there will be much of a crash, and certainly nothing like 08.

It's simple demand and supply, and with demand increasing (Millennials aging, Gen Z coming into the market, boomers living forever with infinite cash) and supply DECREASING (due to investors, corps, whatever), it's kind of a perfect shitstorm. The only way to "fix" it is to increase supply. Build more houses and apartments, force improved utilization of rental (STR means a lot of properties sit vacant for a lot of their existence vs. a LTR having people living in it all the time), etc.

It's a really tough situation to work out.

[Tar]

Yeah it's a tough pill to swallow, and I agree that people need shelter within a living wage. It's sad and I'm worried that it will keep getting worse for everyone but poor people will get hit the hardest. Maybe with lower house prices to come, more people can buy the houses cheaper and offer lower rent as a result? Guess we will see soon enough.

I'm not sure what it's like in Canada, but right now, new builds and housing starts are way below where they need to be to keep up with demand. Up here, everyone blames lack of workers, not money...and I think we as a society are starting to pay the price for forcing every child into college while talking down on trades that we desperately need. Worse, many contractors went belly-up in 08 and found new lines of work, so production capacity is less than before AND we're not increasing it. This is why I don't believe there will be much of a crash, and certainly nothing like 08.

It's simple demand and supply, and with demand increasing (Millennials aging, Gen Z coming into the market, boomers living forever with infinite cash) and supply DECREASING (due to investors, corps, whatever), it's kind of a perfect shitstorm. The only way to "fix" it is to increase supply. Build more houses and apartments, force improved utilization of rental (STR means a lot of properties sit vacant for a lot of their existence vs. a LTR having people living in it all the time), etc.

It's a really tough situation to work out.

At the scale and magnitude of the issue at hand, the gov should encourage large condo structures to be built as city blocks and sold through a program at cost, mainly at the outskirts of metropolitan areas, and provide in routes via LRTs or something.... or cut immigration to near zero levels and actually let population decrease happen... Maybe stripping out the STR business could help but it wont fix IMO

[SAWCE]

I'm not sure what it's like in Canada, but right now, new builds and housing starts are way below where they need to be to keep up with demand. Up here, everyone blames lack of workers, not money...and I think we as a society are starting to pay the price for forcing every child into college while talking down on trades that we desperately need. Worse, many contractors went belly-up in 08 and found new lines of work, so production capacity is less than before AND we're not increasing it. This is why I don't believe there will be much of a crash, and certainly nothing like 08.

It's simple demand and supply, and with demand increasing (Millennials aging, Gen Z coming into the market, boomers living forever with infinite cash) and supply DECREASING (due to investors, corps, whatever), it's kind of a perfect shitstorm. The only way to "fix" it is to increase supply. Build more houses and apartments, force improved utilization of rental (STR means a lot of properties sit vacant for a lot of their existence vs. a LTR having people living in it all the time), etc.

It's a really tough situation to work out.

At the scale and magnitude of the issue at hand, the gov should encourage large condo structures to be built as city blocks and sold through a program at cost, mainly at the outskirts of metropolitan areas, and provide in routes via LRTs or something.... or cut immigration to near zero levels and actually let population decrease happen... Maybe stripping out the STR business could help but it wont fix IMO

The gov doesn’t give a fuck about people

[Desertbreh]

At the scale and magnitude of the issue at hand, the gov should encourage large condo structures to be built as city blocks and sold through a program at cost, mainly at the outskirts of metropolitan areas, and provide in routes via LRTs or something.... or cut immigration to near zero levels and actually let population decrease happen... Maybe stripping out the STR business could help but it wont fix IMO

The gov doesn’t give a fuck about people

Straight from the horse's mouth.

[ChrisoftheNorth]

The gov doesn’t give a fuck about people

Straight from the horse's mouth.

[SAWCE]

The gov doesn’t give a fuck about people

Straight from the horse's mouth.

Sad, but true. Once upon a time maybe, but those days are long gone.

[max225]

The gov doesn’t give a fuck about people

Straight from the horse's mouth.

[ChrisoftheNorth]

I'm not sure what it's like in Canada, but right now, new builds and housing starts are way below where they need to be to keep up with demand. Up here, everyone blames lack of workers, not money...and I think we as a society are starting to pay the price for forcing every child into college while talking down on trades that we desperately need. Worse, many contractors went belly-up in 08 and found new lines of work, so production capacity is less than before AND we're not increasing it. This is why I don't believe there will be much of a crash, and certainly nothing like 08.

It's simple demand and supply, and with demand increasing (Millennials aging, Gen Z coming into the market, boomers living forever with infinite cash) and supply DECREASING (due to investors, corps, whatever), it's kind of a perfect shitstorm. The only way to "fix" it is to increase supply. Build more houses and apartments, force improved utilization of rental (STR means a lot of properties sit vacant for a lot of their existence vs. a LTR having people living in it all the time), etc.

It's a really tough situation to work out.

At the scale and magnitude of the issue at hand, the gov should encourage large condo structures to be built as city blocks and sold through a program at cost, mainly at the outskirts of metropolitan areas, and provide in routes via LRTs or something.... or cut immigration to near zero levels and actually let population decrease happen... Maybe stripping out the STR business could help but it wont fix IMO

Then you end up with "tha projects" and a pretty miserable existence, but a core basic human necessity is met. The .gov sucks at doing anything, but it can regulate. I'd rather see more free market type adjustments like:

- Subsidies for building materials for low income housing (single family, multi-family, whatever)
- Grants/free programs for trade school
- Increased taxes on corps/groups running STRs
- Increased taxes on LTR income for single family houses (Max's buddy that buys houses just to rent to others)

The US is hellbent on increasing population for some reason (overturn of Roe) so while it would be effective, there will never be steps toward decreasing population. Immigration is already pretty tight here. Not zero, but it's nowhere near Canada's open door policy.

[D Griff]

At the scale and magnitude of the issue at hand, the gov should encourage large condo structures to be built as city blocks and sold through a program at cost, mainly at the outskirts of metropolitan areas, and provide in routes via LRTs or something.... or cut immigration to near zero levels and actually let population decrease happen... Maybe stripping out the STR business could help but it wont fix IMO

Then you end up with "tha projects" and a pretty miserable existence, but a core basic human necessity is met. The .gov sucks at doing anything, but it can regulate. I'd rather see more free market type adjustments like:

- Subsidies for building materials for low income housing (single family, multi-family, whatever)
- Grants/free programs for trade school
- Increased taxes on corps/groups running STRs
- Increased taxes on LTR income for single family houses (Max's buddy that buys houses just to rent to others)

The US is hellbent on increasing population for some reason (overturn of Roe) so while it would be effective, there will never be steps toward decreasing population. Immigration is already pretty tight here. Not zero, but it's nowhere near Canada's open door policy.

Well said on all, IMO. Immigration is a nonissue here from my POV. We also have way more inhabitable metro areas than Canada so it’s not so concentrated in one or two core markets.

[D Griff]

The population increase love here is fucking astonishing and disgusting though. Many intelligent people are finally realizing having six kids isn’t sustainable and fucks everyone and then their efforts are overrun by the fucking gov forcing unwanted kids to be born to shit tweaked out parents. Quite odd.

[max225]

The population increase love here is fucking astonishing and disgusting though. Many intelligent people are finally realizing having six kids isn’t sustainable and fucks everyone and then their efforts are overrun by the fucking gov forcing unwanted kids to be born to shit tweaked out parents. Quite odd.

What population increase? The average American woman gives birth below replacement rate. Only reason population is going up is “immigration”

[max225]

Also there is NO shortage of real estate. That’s all artificially driven up by speculation.

There also needs to be a giant repurposing of office space into residential space. Offices are a giant waste at the moment. We should not build more sfh, that’s a luxury this planet can not afford.

[Tar]

At the scale and magnitude of the issue at hand, the gov should encourage large condo structures to be built as city blocks and sold through a program at cost, mainly at the outskirts of metropolitan areas, and provide in routes via LRTs or something.... or cut immigration to near zero levels and actually let population decrease happen... Maybe stripping out the STR business could help but it wont fix IMO

Then you end up with "tha projects" and a pretty miserable existence, but a core basic human necessity is met. The .gov sucks at doing anything, but it can regulate. I'd rather see more free market type adjustments like:

- Subsidies for building materials for low income housing (single family, multi-family, whatever)
- Grants/free programs for trade school
- Increased taxes on corps/groups running STRs
- Increased taxes on LTR income for single family houses (Max's buddy that buys houses just to rent to others)

The US is hellbent on increasing population for some reason (overturn of Roe) so while it would be effective, there will never be steps toward decreasing population. Immigration is already pretty tight here. Not zero, but it's nowhere near Canada's open door policy.

All good programs

The bolded one brings me pause... Although it potentially achieves less interest in rentals/rental income I can see it ultimately reducing the number of available units, exasperating the market further. So the end result is slightly lower house prices but no change to rental unit supply, or possibly even a decrease in available units.

[max225]

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2 ... n-the-u-s/
Question came up around this...