Car Talk 6: Best of times and Worst of Times
Posted: Wed Apr 06, 2022 11:46 pm
It was half. Are you mother fucking Richard Nixon?
On-topic, off-topic, who cares!
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It was half. Are you mother fucking Richard Nixon?
Gas was 6 cents a gallon when I was growing up ok den … staying home it is.Desertbreh wrote: ↑Wed Apr 06, 2022 11:49 pm I'm not taking this Shawshank laundry prison rape going down. Max Voice: It's just inflation, let me show you on my Abacus!
Me: Fuck you, motherfucker. Don't charge me twice what is was fucking yesterday and expect me to be your bitch. It pisses me off.
We fight on.max225 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 07, 2022 12:09 amGas was 6 cents a gallon when I was growing up ok den … staying home it is.Desertbreh wrote: ↑Wed Apr 06, 2022 11:49 pm I'm not taking this Shawshank laundry prison rape going down. Max Voice: It's just inflation, let me show you on my Abacus!
Me: Fuck you, motherfucker. Don't charge me twice what is was fucking yesterday and expect me to be your bitch. It pisses me off.
it was $23,xxx brand new. Sure there has been inflation, but not 100%.
ok, to do this for this environment you really have to compare MSRP to MSRP
Equivalent to an annual inflation rate of 2.133%.Big Brain Bradley wrote: ↑Thu Apr 07, 2022 8:10 amok, to do this for this environment you really have to compare MSRP to MSRP
2011 GTI MSRP=23,695
2022 MSRP=...29k
26%
Yea, and it should be zero. so I was just bring the re: GTI pricingcoogles wrote: ↑Thu Apr 07, 2022 8:45 amEquivalent to an annual inflation rate of 2.133%.Big Brain Bradley wrote: ↑Thu Apr 07, 2022 8:10 am
ok, to do this for this environment you really have to compare MSRP to MSRP
2011 GTI MSRP=23,695
2022 MSRP=...29k
26%
I'd listen to this man on this because the GTI example is an outlier IMHO. Hell some of that may even be hidden 6+% inflation this year of due to a MSRP to MSRP comparison b/c in 2011 no one paid MSRP.Detroit wrote: ↑Thu Apr 07, 2022 8:56 am I'm going to argue that cars are outpacing overall inflation. The average price of a new car is over $40k today. In 2011, it was $25k. So a 60% increase. I know there's a ton of factors that go into avg car prices (like vehicle size trends, mix, etc) but the fact is, there aren't as many GR Corolla type vehicles anymore. And what is left, is quite pricey. So relative to the overall market, $45k really isn't all that much now...just barely over industry average.
I do believe that a base GR Corolla will start in the upper 30's, with the fancy edition in the low $40k...$45k top with accys and whatnot. They're quoting 6-7k production volume in the first year, with no set production cap or run. Assuming that number is a floor and they'll produce more if demand is there, that's quite a bit of volume for a limited market vehicle. I hope they sell every one without issue, but Toyota knows they can't overprice it. Reading more about it, it has a number of tech upgrades that the NEXT gen Corolla will get, which means the current car is future proofed to last a while. Say production runs for 5 years, that's 30-35k minimum of the only things.
Which is significant but $29k is not $45.Big Brain Bradley wrote: ↑Thu Apr 07, 2022 8:10 amok, to do this for this environment you really have to compare MSRP to MSRP
2011 GTI MSRP=23,695
2022 MSRP=...29k
26%
D Griff wrote: ↑Thu Apr 07, 2022 9:26 amWhich is significant but $29k is not $45.Big Brain Bradley wrote: ↑Thu Apr 07, 2022 8:10 am
ok, to do this for this environment you really have to compare MSRP to MSRP
2011 GTI MSRP=23,695
2022 MSRP=...29k
26%
Manufacturers are starting to raise MSRPs + Destination fees to bridge the gap between ATPs. Slowly but surely they are catching up...D Griff wrote: ↑Thu Apr 07, 2022 10:18 am I'm curious to see what the manufacturers do from an MSRP standpoint going into '23 model years though. Let's take a GR86 as an example. MSRP of $28-31K basically, I imagine average transaction price on them is at least 10-20% above that if not more. So, will Toyota say, we should be making this money, not our and raise MSRP significantly?
MSRP vs. MSRP only paints part of the picture. I bought my 2012 GTI in 2011 at a decent discount under MSRP and with $0 down, 60 months at 1.9%. I was no shrewd negotiator at age 22, nor did I have significant credit or income to back up that deal, but I was easily given it.
Today, I have 15+ years of great credit history, own a home, DINK status and between the two of us make like 6X what I made individually in 2011 and yet if I went in to buy a new GTI I would likely have to pay over MSRP (I'm guessing, particularly given it's an all new version) and would either have to pay cash, or at best, finance at 3-5%.
I still think this will all normalize at some point though, things are already cooling down. My company has a pretty great stock outlook for the first time in 1.5 years, and sadly our competitors are improving as well. We face the same chip/supply chain challenges as auto makers.
Additionally, people are traveling again in full force, dining out in full force, etc. so the boredom buying will likely slow some (I think it already is).
I'm not saying that we will be back to getting 10-20% on the hood this year, but I think getting something at MSRP relatively easily is coming back quickly.
Ima leave this one bolded. This is the MAIN DRIVER of inflation... you're far from alone, I think every single person here is at least 2x their income levels from back then. Yet of course all of us want 2011 pricing. Hell Walmart is paying their truck drivers 110k a year to start. WALMART a place that notoriously underpaid... Things are completely out of control lately. That was not the case back then.Today, I have 15+ years of great credit history, own a home, DINK status and between the two of us make like 6X what I made individually in 2011
max225 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 07, 2022 1:21 pmManufacturers are starting to raise MSRPs + Destination fees to bridge the gap between ATPs. Slowly but surely they are catching up...D Griff wrote: ↑Thu Apr 07, 2022 10:18 am I'm curious to see what the manufacturers do from an MSRP standpoint going into '23 model years though. Let's take a GR86 as an example. MSRP of $28-31K basically, I imagine average transaction price on them is at least 10-20% above that if not more. So, will Toyota say, we should be making this money, not our and raise MSRP significantly?
MSRP vs. MSRP only paints part of the picture. I bought my 2012 GTI in 2011 at a decent discount under MSRP and with $0 down, 60 months at 1.9%. I was no shrewd negotiator at age 22, nor did I have significant credit or income to back up that deal, but I was easily given it.
Today, I have 15+ years of great credit history, own a home, DINK status and between the two of us make like 6X what I made individually in 2011 and yet if I went in to buy a new GTI I would likely have to pay over MSRP (I'm guessing, particularly given it's an all new version) and would either have to pay cash, or at best, finance at 3-5%.
I still think this will all normalize at some point though, things are already cooling down. My company has a pretty great stock outlook for the first time in 1.5 years, and sadly our competitors are improving as well. We face the same chip/supply chain challenges as auto makers.
Additionally, people are traveling again in full force, dining out in full force, etc. so the boredom buying will likely slow some (I think it already is).
I'm not saying that we will be back to getting 10-20% on the hood this year, but I think getting something at MSRP relatively easily is coming back quickly.
Tesla yesterday raised Model 3 prices ANOTHER $1500. I am a fool for not having to purchase one 2 months ago for 5k less... it would have absorbed my taxes and then some.
Ima leave this one bolded. This is the MAIN DRIVER of inflation... you're far from alone, I think every single person here is at least 2x their income levels from back then. Yet of course all of us want 2011 pricing. Hell Walmart is paying their truck drivers 110k a year to start. WALMART a place that notoriously underpaid... Things are completely out of control lately. That was not the case back then.Today, I have 15+ years of great credit history, own a home, DINK status and between the two of us make like 6X what I made individually in 2011
times are changing... it is worth spending your money on physical assets if you can get them at a good price as of today. Inflation is here to stay... for at least another 1-2 years... and it is FAR greater than 7% whether you like it or not.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/walmart-ra ... 1649336400
Link to walmart truck driving. I mean you can be a HIGH SCHOOL DROP OUT AND MAKE 6 figures EASY.... this is unprecedented.
I too considered getting a Freightliner and starting to chase some Lot Lizzards but I feel like 18 hr drives through the fly over states on the reg will get old fast.Detroit wrote: ↑Thu Apr 07, 2022 2:10 pm If I wasn't married, I'd be a truck driver 100%. No joke, it's my perfect job.
I haven't had a meaningful increase in salary for 4 years now. I should have negotiated higher at my current job because I'm underpaid, but when I was searching, full remote jobs that I qualified for were REALLY hard to find, so I took what I could get.
Now that I have the tech experience, my opportunities are bountiful. I don't really want to job hunt again, but I'm going to be stuck at around my salary for as long as I'm at my current place. The most lucrative pay increases come by moving companies, sadly and I doubt that's going to change.
I've been pretty fortunate at this place, I've gotten a couple of promotions and meaningful raises. One big key is being in a major growth segment of the company. The team I'm on was originally five people and now nearly 20. My boss also likes getting people money.Detroit wrote: ↑Thu Apr 07, 2022 2:10 pm If I wasn't married, I'd be a truck driver 100%. No joke, it's my perfect job.
I haven't had a meaningful increase in salary for 4 years now. I should have negotiated higher at my current job because I'm underpaid, but when I was searching, full remote jobs that I qualified for were REALLY hard to find, so I took what I could get.
Now that I have the tech experience, my opportunities are bountiful. I don't really want to job hunt again, but I'm going to be stuck at around my salary for as long as I'm at my current place. The most lucrative pay increases come by moving companies, sadly and I doubt that's going to change.
Setting MSRP is HARD. You can never decrease it, so you have to spend incentives to drop the price if needed. So raising MSRP needs to be done cautiously. I don't think we'll see huge MSRP jumps from established OEMs. Instead, we'll see a continued shift in the trim mix to be more premium. So the base MSRP went up by $1k, but you can't buy a base really, you have to buy the premium trim thing, and that went up by $3k. Avg in the middle.D Griff wrote: ↑Thu Apr 07, 2022 10:18 am I'm curious to see what the manufacturers do from an MSRP standpoint going into '23 model years though. Let's take a GR86 as an example. MSRP of $28-31K basically, I imagine average transaction price on them is at least 10-20% above that if not more. So, will Toyota say, we should be making this money, not our and raise MSRP significantly?
MSRP vs. MSRP only paints part of the picture. I bought my 2012 GTI in 2011 at a decent discount under MSRP and with $0 down, 60 months at 1.9%. I was no shrewd negotiator at age 22, nor did I have significant credit or income to back up that deal, but I was easily given it.
Today, I have 15+ years of great credit history, own a home, DINK status and between the two of us make like 6X what I made individually in 2011 and yet if I went in to buy a new GTI I would likely have to pay over MSRP (I'm guessing, particularly given it's an all new version) and would either have to pay cash, or at best, finance at 3-5%.
I still think this will all normalize at some point though, things are already cooling down. My company has a pretty great stock outlook for the first time in 1.5 years, and sadly our competitors are improving as well. We face the same chip/supply chain challenges as auto makers.
Additionally, people are traveling again in full force, dining out in full force, etc. so the boredom buying will likely slow some (I think it already is).
I'm not saying that we will be back to getting 10-20% on the hood this year, but I think getting something at MSRP relatively easily is coming back quickly.
It was nice when it was only 30% of the job, it's very relaxing but does get boring. I think long haul over time would get old indeed.max225 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 07, 2022 2:13 pmI too considered getting a Freightliner and starting to chase some Lot Lizzards but I feel like 18 hr drives through the fly over states on the reg will get old fast.Detroit wrote: ↑Thu Apr 07, 2022 2:10 pm If I wasn't married, I'd be a truck driver 100%. No joke, it's my perfect job.
I haven't had a meaningful increase in salary for 4 years now. I should have negotiated higher at my current job because I'm underpaid, but when I was searching, full remote jobs that I qualified for were REALLY hard to find, so I took what I could get.
Now that I have the tech experience, my opportunities are bountiful. I don't really want to job hunt again, but I'm going to be stuck at around my salary for as long as I'm at my current place. The most lucrative pay increases come by moving companies, sadly and I doubt that's going to change.
110K with ZERO EDUCATION is kind of like Prudhoe Bay oilfield jobs in the 70s. Why go to college? It won't take you too long on your abacus to figure out how getting an apartment in Omaha, NE, getting this Wally World jerb at 21, then staying single, using birth control and driving the shit out of a Kenworth for 10 years could pretty much set you up for the long haul.
I'm built for life on the road. I've driven across the country more times than I can count now...even flyover country has its merits.max225 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 07, 2022 2:13 pmI too considered getting a Freightliner and starting to chase some Lot Lizzards but I feel like 18 hr drives through the fly over states on the reg will get old fast.Detroit wrote: ↑Thu Apr 07, 2022 2:10 pm If I wasn't married, I'd be a truck driver 100%. No joke, it's my perfect job.
I haven't had a meaningful increase in salary for 4 years now. I should have negotiated higher at my current job because I'm underpaid, but when I was searching, full remote jobs that I qualified for were REALLY hard to find, so I took what I could get.
Now that I have the tech experience, my opportunities are bountiful. I don't really want to job hunt again, but I'm going to be stuck at around my salary for as long as I'm at my current place. The most lucrative pay increases come by moving companies, sadly and I doubt that's going to change.