Soviet EV and taco chronicles + future ponderings about Fendie

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wap wrote: Wed Oct 05, 2022 10:23 am
Johnny_P wrote: Wed Oct 05, 2022 9:11 am

In order to sell gas in California the gas has to be produced in a facility that meets California emissions standards. Texas and the oil industry in general DGAF about emissions. So gas sold in Cali is more expensive because there’s fewer refineries that meet the standard.
Interesting.
:themoreyouknow:
I have heard this before. I’m trying to understand the actual non bullshit answer from someone in the industry. 3 years ago the gap was less than 50 cents today the gap is over $3… something doesn’t add up.

Neither does “demand” you can’t have a supply and demand Convo with a product that has inelastic demand… people won’t stop buying gas over night.

We’re $3.50 higher than Florida presumably they have had a few “disruptions” as well
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https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/resources/fact-s ... ine-update

Carb says it’s 5-8 cents a gallon.
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max225 wrote: Wed Oct 05, 2022 10:26 am
wap wrote: Wed Oct 05, 2022 10:23 am

Interesting.
:themoreyouknow:
I have heard this before. I’m trying to understand the actual non bullshit answer from someone in the industry. 3 years ago the gap was less than 50 cents today the gap is over $3… something doesn’t add up.

Neither does “demand” you can’t have a supply and demand Convo with a product that has inelastic demand… people won’t stop buying gas over night.

We’re $3.50 higher than Florida presumably they have had a few “disruptions” as well
Delivery charge and carbon tax just like my natural gas bill.
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max225 wrote: Wed Oct 05, 2022 10:35 am https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/resources/fact-s ... ine-update

Carb says it’s 5-8 cents a gallon.
But as JP pointed out, not every refinery can make the stuff, so while on a raw material basis it's 5-8 cents a gallon more, due to limited supply, the cost is higher because...it can be.

The .gov wants to force EV adoption for...reasons. Higher gas prices is a great way to do that.
Desertbreh wrote: Tue Oct 10, 2017 6:40 pm My guess would be that Chris took some time off because he has read the dialogue on this page 1,345 times and decided to spend some of his free time doing something besides beating a horse to death.
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max225 wrote: Wed Oct 05, 2022 10:26 am
wap wrote: Wed Oct 05, 2022 10:23 am

Interesting.
:themoreyouknow:
I have heard this before. I’m trying to understand the actual non bullshit answer from someone in the industry. 3 years ago the gap was less than 50 cents today the gap is over $3… something doesn’t add up.

Neither does “demand” you can’t have a supply and demand Convo with a product that has inelastic demand… people won’t stop buying gas over night.

We’re $3.50 higher than Florida presumably they have had a few “disruptions” as well
Loss of refining in Florida, if there was any, is easily offset by production increases elsewhere in the country. Florida has no restrictions on how fuel is made.

A disruption to a refinery in California has major effects since there are a limited number of suppliers due to restrictions on how fuel is made.

Also demand is not in elastic. People drive significantly more during the summer when school is out vs the winter.
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Johnny_P wrote: Wed Oct 05, 2022 3:13 pm
max225 wrote: Wed Oct 05, 2022 10:26 am

I have heard this before. I’m trying to understand the actual non bullshit answer from someone in the industry. 3 years ago the gap was less than 50 cents today the gap is over $3… something doesn’t add up.

Neither does “demand” you can’t have a supply and demand Convo with a product that has inelastic demand… people won’t stop buying gas over night.

We’re $3.50 higher than Florida presumably they have had a few “disruptions” as well
Loss of refining in Florida, if there was any, is easily offset by production increases elsewhere in the country. Florida has no restrictions on how fuel is made.

A disruption to a refinery in California has major effects since there are a limited number of suppliers due to restrictions on how fuel is made.

Also demand is not in elastic. People drive significantly more during the summer when school is out vs the winter.
Looks pretty steady to me and we use 1/2 of the gas we did in 1995

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafH ... 650061&f=M
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max225 wrote: Wed Oct 05, 2022 3:56 pm
Johnny_P wrote: Wed Oct 05, 2022 3:13 pm

Loss of refining in Florida, if there was any, is easily offset by production increases elsewhere in the country. Florida has no restrictions on how fuel is made.

A disruption to a refinery in California has major effects since there are a limited number of suppliers due to restrictions on how fuel is made.

Also demand is not in elastic. People drive significantly more during the summer when school is out vs the winter.
Looks pretty steady to me and we use 1/2 of the gas we did in 1995

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafH ... 650061&f=M
Maybe the oil companies are just trying to screw you now that Siri told them you bought a truck 😀
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Johnny_P wrote: Wed Oct 05, 2022 4:18 pm
max225 wrote: Wed Oct 05, 2022 3:56 pm
Looks pretty steady to me and we use 1/2 of the gas we did in 1995

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafH ... 650061&f=M
Maybe the oil companies are just trying to screw you now that Siri told them you bought a truck 😀
:rage: I had to fill up 3 times in the last 7 days. For various reasons and various vehicles. It was annoying.
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max225 wrote: Wed Oct 05, 2022 10:26 am
wap wrote: Wed Oct 05, 2022 10:23 am

Interesting.
:themoreyouknow:
I have heard this before. I’m trying to understand the actual non bullshit answer from someone in the industry. 3 years ago the gap was less than 50 cents today the gap is over $3… something doesn’t add up.

Neither does “demand” you can’t have a supply and demand Convo with a product that has inelastic demand… people won’t stop buying gas over night.

We’re $3.50 higher than Florida presumably they have had a few “disruptions” as well
im sure its nothing to do with the state government *doing something* about the environment.
Desertbreh wrote: Thu Sep 15, 2022 4:28 pm I'm happy for Brad because nobody jerks it to the Miata harder on this forum and that is the Crown Prince of Miatas.
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golftdibrad1 wrote: Thu Oct 06, 2022 12:39 pm
max225 wrote: Wed Oct 05, 2022 10:26 am

I have heard this before. I’m trying to understand the actual non bullshit answer from someone in the industry. 3 years ago the gap was less than 50 cents today the gap is over $3… something doesn’t add up.

Neither does “demand” you can’t have a supply and demand Convo with a product that has inelastic demand… people won’t stop buying gas over night.

We’re $3.50 higher than Florida presumably they have had a few “disruptions” as well
im sure its nothing to do with the state government *doing something* about the environment.
Government doesn't own the oil companies. I am pretty sure we're just in the middle of the usual price gouging. Oil companies are testing the market in cali... I.E how much can we charge before demand completely tanks. Clearly $7 a gallon is not a deterrent just yet. But it does seem to be the ceiling. It has driven insane EV conversion rates at the moment. But people are acting incredibly irrationally... I.E they are buying EVs for 70k and paying $1500 on stretch pay to save $50 at the pump.

Our EV charge rates here have gone stratospheric... it is 58C a KW to supercharge a Tesla during normal hours at public location...That's about $58 to "fill up" a model X/S from 0-100 and go about 300 miles.

that's :fullretard: and saves very little money. Unless of course you're coming from something that gets 10-15mpg
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I'm paying $4.50 for 91 in Colorado.
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Johnny_P wrote: Thu Feb 09, 2023 3:21 pm Earn it and burn it, Val.
max225 wrote: Mon May 01, 2023 5:35 pm Yes it's a cool car. But prepare the lube/sawdust.
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max225 wrote: Thu Oct 06, 2022 2:47 pm
golftdibrad1 wrote: Thu Oct 06, 2022 12:39 pm

im sure its nothing to do with the state government *doing something* about the environment.
Government doesn't own the oil companies. I am pretty sure we're just in the middle of the usual price gouging. Oil companies are testing the market in cali... I.E how much can we charge before demand completely tanks. Clearly $7 a gallon is not a deterrent just yet. But it does seem to be the ceiling. It has driven insane EV conversion rates at the moment. But people are acting incredibly irrationally... I.E they are buying EVs for 70k and paying $1500 on stretch pay to save $50 at the pump.

Our EV charge rates here have gone stratospheric... it is 58C a KW to supercharge a Tesla during normal hours at public location...That's about $58 to "fill up" a model X/S from 0-100 and go about 300 miles.

that's :fullretard: and saves very little money. Unless of course you're coming from something that gets 10-15mpg
IMMA disagree with you there. California's energy policies are atrocious and hostile to producers of all forms of energy, even the shit they want like hydrogen and solar. You therefore have a shortage of energy. It gets more expensive. the demand is highly inelastic.
Hanlon's razor "never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity."


Maybe we should have a new one called Brad's Razor - "Never attribute negative outcomes to conspiracy when they can be adequately explained by the unintended consequences of regulatory interference in markets."
Desertbreh wrote: Thu Sep 15, 2022 4:28 pm I'm happy for Brad because nobody jerks it to the Miata harder on this forum and that is the Crown Prince of Miatas.
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golftdibrad1 wrote: Thu Oct 06, 2022 3:26 pm
max225 wrote: Thu Oct 06, 2022 2:47 pm

Government doesn't own the oil companies. I am pretty sure we're just in the middle of the usual price gouging. Oil companies are testing the market in cali... I.E how much can we charge before demand completely tanks. Clearly $7 a gallon is not a deterrent just yet. But it does seem to be the ceiling. It has driven insane EV conversion rates at the moment. But people are acting incredibly irrationally... I.E they are buying EVs for 70k and paying $1500 on stretch pay to save $50 at the pump.

Our EV charge rates here have gone stratospheric... it is 58C a KW to supercharge a Tesla during normal hours at public location...That's about $58 to "fill up" a model X/S from 0-100 and go about 300 miles.

that's :fullretard: and saves very little money. Unless of course you're coming from something that gets 10-15mpg
IMMA disagree with you there. California's energy policies are atrocious and hostile to producers of all forms of energy, even the shit they want like hydrogen and solar. You therefore have a shortage of energy. It gets more expensive. the demand is highly inelastic.
Hanlon's razor "never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity."


Maybe we should have a new one called Brad's Razor - "Never attribute negative outcomes to conspiracy when they can be adequately explained by the unintended consequences of regulatory interference in markets."
I produce my own. I suppose I should just start taking advantage of it.
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"The increase comes as California faces supply shortages following slowdowns and maintenance-related stoppages at five oil refineries that produce a type of fuel blend aimed at reducing air pollution required under state law, leaving California unable to rely on its neighbors for more gas, Severin Borenstein, director of the University of California Berkeley's Energy Institute, told the Los Angeles Times."

https://www.forbes.com/sites/brianbusha ... 5b328350e7

When you have a set number of refineries that make fuel for your state, and 5 of them are offline or producing at a lower level, you have major impacts. That's likely the majority of why your fuel prices are so much higher than the rest of the country.
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golftdibrad1 wrote: Thu Oct 06, 2022 3:26 pm IMMA disagree with you there. California's energy policies are atrocious and hostile to producers of all forms of energy, even the shit they want like hydrogen and solar.
Not wrong. Something has to give though. There has got to be an incentive somewhere to head in one general direction. Like if they could realize that nuclear produces no emissions at the generation site, and approve new reactors, then maybe relax some of the restrictions on it. Which I think is the direction this country needs to go. But we won't because we're not China, we can't just make a decision like that and mandate it.
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Johnny_P wrote: Thu Oct 06, 2022 8:50 pm "The increase comes as California faces supply shortages following slowdowns and maintenance-related stoppages at five oil refineries that produce a type of fuel blend aimed at reducing air pollution required under state law, leaving California unable to rely on its neighbors for more gas, Severin Borenstein, director of the University of California Berkeley's Energy Institute, told the Los Angeles Times."

https://www.forbes.com/sites/brianbusha ... 5b328350e7

When you have a set number of refineries that make fuel for your state, and 5 of them are offline or producing at a lower level, you have major impacts. That's likely the majority of why your fuel prices are so much higher than the rest of the country.
Sure. This explanation would make sense if people actually stopped buying or demand went down enough to offset “5” refineries. I don’t believe this for a second. also a bit well timed to do maintenance all at once…

This would also imply that there are periods of over production when all refineries are pumping out all they can and our prices drop…

:lolgasm: but that doesn’t happen does it. So pointing to supply and demand to justify pricing is foolish
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max225 wrote: Thu Oct 06, 2022 9:00 pm
Johnny_P wrote: Thu Oct 06, 2022 8:50 pm "The increase comes as California faces supply shortages following slowdowns and maintenance-related stoppages at five oil refineries that produce a type of fuel blend aimed at reducing air pollution required under state law, leaving California unable to rely on its neighbors for more gas, Severin Borenstein, director of the University of California Berkeley's Energy Institute, told the Los Angeles Times."

https://www.forbes.com/sites/brianbusha ... 5b328350e7

When you have a set number of refineries that make fuel for your state, and 5 of them are offline or producing at a lower level, you have major impacts. That's likely the majority of why your fuel prices are so much higher than the rest of the country.
Sure. This explanation would make sense if people actually stopped buying or demand went down enough to offset “5” refineries. I don’t believe this for a second. also a bit well timed to do maintenance all at once…

This would also imply that there are periods of over production when all refineries are pumping out all they can and our prices drop…

:lolgasm: but that doesn’t happen does it. So pointing to supply and demand to justify pricing is foolish
That exact scenario caused the first refinery I worked at to close, and a bunch of my friends lost their jobs.

5 refineries offline or at a rate cut is pretty major in a state that only has 10 refineries that produce its fuel.
https://www.energy.ca.gov/data-reports/ ... refineries

As to whey they're all doing maintenance at the same time. No clue. They're not all run by the same company so they're making independent decisions. Its likely the timing/market/pricing was favorable to conduct a maintenance outage. Marathon, PBF, Phillips 66, and probably more on that list do not own upstream facilities. i.e. they do not own oil wells. They purchase crude on the market and refine it into higher value products.
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Putting down 50% of Commifornia's gas producers at the same time for maintenance is political, exasperating and magnifying the crisis is both profitable and motivating citizens to come up with an alternate strategy for getting around. It's obvious that the gov and gas producers don't give a shit about middle class families trying to keep their heads above water. Anyone steering the ship who's even a half decent human would be stripping out taxes and/or bending the rules to allow fuel in from other states.
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Johnny_P wrote: Thu Oct 06, 2022 8:54 pm
golftdibrad1 wrote: Thu Oct 06, 2022 3:26 pm IMMA disagree with you there. California's energy policies are atrocious and hostile to producers of all forms of energy, even the shit they want like hydrogen and solar.
Not wrong. Something has to give though. There has got to be an incentive somewhere to head in one general direction. Like if they could realize that nuclear produces no emissions at the generation site, and approve new reactors, then maybe relax some of the restrictions on it. Which I think is the direction this country needs to go. But we won't because we're not China, we can't just make a decision like that and mandate it.
yup, and even in earthquake prone CA a 4th gen liquid fuel reactor could be made very safely. Just do extra hardening on the drain tanks and even in a catastrophic event one could just bury the whole fucker and stick a DND sign on top the dirt pile.
Desertbreh wrote: Thu Sep 15, 2022 4:28 pm I'm happy for Brad because nobody jerks it to the Miata harder on this forum and that is the Crown Prince of Miatas.
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Tar wrote: Thu Oct 06, 2022 11:30 pm Putting down 50% of Commifornia's gas producers at the same time for maintenance is political, exasperating and magnifying the crisis is both profitable and motivating citizens to come up with an alternate strategy for getting around. It's obvious that the gov and gas producers don't give a shit about middle class families trying to keep their heads above water. Anyone steering the ship who's even a half decent human would be stripping out taxes and/or bending the rules to allow fuel in from other states.
Politics have nothing to do with the outage schedule of a refinery. That’s set based on equipment needs, catalyst performance, and the exact timing is driven by market conditions.

Fuel usage drops once kids go back to school, making it more favorable to conduct an outage and major maintenance in the fall / winter than the summer. It’s likely that they were deferring maintenance until favorable market conditions. That they all took an outage at the same time is actually extremely disadvantageous to them because prices are higher, they would make more money by running the refinery.
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Johnny_P wrote: Fri Oct 07, 2022 9:19 am
Tar wrote: Thu Oct 06, 2022 11:30 pm Putting down 50% of Commifornia's gas producers at the same time for maintenance is political, exasperating and magnifying the crisis is both profitable and motivating citizens to come up with an alternate strategy for getting around. It's obvious that the gov and gas producers don't give a shit about middle class families trying to keep their heads above water. Anyone steering the ship who's even a half decent human would be stripping out taxes and/or bending the rules to allow fuel in from other states.
Politics have nothing to do with the outage schedule of a refinery. That’s set based on equipment needs, catalyst performance, and the exact timing is driven by market conditions.

Fuel usage drops once kids go back to school, making it more favorable to conduct an outage and major maintenance in the fall / winter than the summer. It’s likely that they were deferring maintenance until favorable market conditions. That they all took an outage at the same time is actually extremely disadvantageous to them because prices are higher, they would make more money by running the refinery.
Don't they typically run up the tanks as well? So even during an outage they are able to sell fuel. I am in the industry but not in ops, always assumed they would front run production so distribution doesn't drop to zero during the turn around.
Desertbreh wrote: Thu Sep 15, 2022 4:28 pm I'm happy for Brad because nobody jerks it to the Miata harder on this forum and that is the Crown Prince of Miatas.
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Johnny_P wrote: Fri Oct 07, 2022 9:19 am
Tar wrote: Thu Oct 06, 2022 11:30 pm Putting down 50% of Commifornia's gas producers at the same time for maintenance is political, exasperating and magnifying the crisis is both profitable and motivating citizens to come up with an alternate strategy for getting around. It's obvious that the gov and gas producers don't give a shit about middle class families trying to keep their heads above water. Anyone steering the ship who's even a half decent human would be stripping out taxes and/or bending the rules to allow fuel in from other states.
Politics have nothing to do with the outage schedule of a refinery. That’s set based on equipment needs, catalyst performance, and the exact timing is driven by market conditions.

Fuel usage drops once kids go back to school, making it more favorable to conduct an outage and major maintenance in the fall / winter than the summer. It’s likely that they were deferring maintenance until favorable market conditions. That they all took an outage at the same time is actually extremely disadvantageous to them because prices are higher, they would make more money by running the refinery.
So you're saying that it's a well timed fuck up? :idbu:

Look, there are times to do what's right for the environment first, and I value that as much as you do, but there are other times like this 50% reduction fiasco that should allow fuel imports from plants that don't follow the strict protocols of Commiefornia to ensure that the economy doesn't come to a screeching halt. That part is political, and is designed to give Max and his neighbors a hard time and push them into "green" cars.
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The whole Special California Gas refinery outage thing has been going on forever it is just magnfied by the current global uptick. Double Magnfier on the Pay Area, which always leads California in gas prices. Expensive gas is another negative on the ledger books of living in CA. If you don't like it move out, right?
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Johnny_P wrote: Thu Feb 09, 2023 3:21 pm Earn it and burn it, Val.
max225 wrote: Mon May 01, 2023 5:35 pm Yes it's a cool car. But prepare the lube/sawdust.
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Desertbreh wrote: Fri Oct 07, 2022 12:45 pm The whole Special California Gas refinery outage thing has been going on forever it is just magnfied by the current global uptick. Double Magnfier on the Pay Area, which always leads California in gas prices. Expensive gas is another negative on the ledger books of living in CA. If you don't like it move out, right?
LA is usually worse than us. Managed to “score” a deal at $6.19 a gallon after GasBuddy tried to fuck me and took me to a station with $7.29 gas after claiming it was $5.89 :rage:

$103.13 cents to fill up an Acura tsx :disgust: it’s becoming more and more difficult to live in this state.
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golftdibrad1 wrote: Fri Oct 07, 2022 9:39 am
Johnny_P wrote: Fri Oct 07, 2022 9:19 am

Politics have nothing to do with the outage schedule of a refinery. That’s set based on equipment needs, catalyst performance, and the exact timing is driven by market conditions.

Fuel usage drops once kids go back to school, making it more favorable to conduct an outage and major maintenance in the fall / winter than the summer. It’s likely that they were deferring maintenance until favorable market conditions. That they all took an outage at the same time is actually extremely disadvantageous to them because prices are higher, they would make more money by running the refinery.
Don't they typically run up the tanks as well? So even during an outage they are able to sell fuel. I am in the industry but not in ops, always assumed they would front run production so distribution doesn't drop to zero during the turn around.
The tanks don’t typically hold very much but yeah if they have the storage they’ll build up some inventory prior.
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