Car Talk 5: The Juice is Loose!

[D Griff]

The high Vroom and Carvana quotes were short lived. They went back to being shitty pretty fast, I watched our JL drop by many $k's each week after the highest offer of $39k back in August. It's down to $33k now, to which I'll pass on.

It is annoying as they are much to blame for the insane car prices right now, but have

[ChrisoftheNorth]

The high Vroom and Carvana quotes were short lived. They went back to being shitty pretty fast, I watched our JL drop by many $k's each week after the highest offer of $39k back in August. It's down to $33k now, to which I'll pass on.

It is annoying as they are much to blame for the insane car prices right now, but have

Yea, but I really think current used car prices will be short lived.

[max225]

It is annoying as they are much to blame for the insane car prices right now, but have

Yea, but I really think current used car prices will be short lived.

Depends on new production which is still impacted by covid and whether or not people will work ... tbd. But 110% in used market after 1-2 years being purchased new has gotta stop

[Tar]

House prices here keep going 100k over ask; the madness extends beyond cars in the US. We spoke to the condo board insurance group, and they have raised prices by 30%, so we found a new player in the game trying to earn new business in the sector and willing to give us cheap rates, for now! Fuel prices are making a slow but steady comeback, and I can see taxes going up at every opportunity. Inflation is going to be a shit show, IMO. Truly a haves/have nots case scenario.

[D Griff]

It is annoying as they are much to blame for the insane car prices right now, but have

Yea, but I really think current used car prices will be short lived.

I agree and hope that to be the case. It doesn't seem like C5 prices have been elevated either so I have nothing to gain with this

I don't think we'll be selling the Beep Beep any time in the next five or more years.

[ChrisoftheNorth]

Yea, but I really think current used car prices will be short lived.

Depends on new production which is still impacted by covid and whether or not people will work ... tbd. But 110% in used market after 1-2 years being purchased new has gotta stop

Yea, NFW that's sustainable. New production will catch up...assuming there aren't widespread lockdowns impacting factories.

[max225]

I finally got a Carvana quote to go through on my car today. 2020 86 w/ ~3500 miles == $24309, including a $2,178 "local market" adjustment for putting in a Charlotte, NC ZIP code... I'll drive to Charlotte and get a rental car to take home for $2k.

That's only about $1500 in profit vs the loan balance. So much for used cars being hugely valuable.

What was the otd new? 33?

[ChrisoftheNorth]

House prices here keep going 100k over ask; the madness extends beyond cars in the US. We spoke to the condo board insurance group, and they have raised prices by 30%, so we found a new player in the game trying to earn new business in the sector and willing to give us cheap rates, for now! Fuel prices are making a slow but steady comeback, and I can see taxes going up at every opportunity. Inflation is going to be a shit show, IMO. Truly a haves/have nots case scenario.

I've noticed this as well, though we had some difficulty selling our house in the city for big money, so there's some weakness showing in certain areas. We couldn't afford a house in our new area , it's crazy how much real estate here in the "middle of nowhere" has shot up over the last few months. We got really lucky.

Fuel is still cheap here that's about it. Inflation is absolutely going nuts whether any official agency wants to recognize it or not.

[max225]

House prices here keep going 100k over ask; the madness extends beyond cars in the US. We spoke to the condo board insurance group, and they have raised prices by 30%, so we found a new player in the game trying to earn new business in the sector and willing to give us cheap rates, for now! Fuel prices are making a slow but steady comeback, and I can see taxes going up at every opportunity. Inflation is going to be a shit show, IMO. Truly a haves/have nots case scenario.

It isn’t, it’s called inflation due to the unprecedented stimulus put into the economy. I don’t understand how/why the .gov lies on the CPI but it has got to be 20% this year, yet it’s hovering in the low single digits

[ChrisoftheNorth]

Yea, but I really think current used car prices will be short lived.

I agree and hope that to be the case. It doesn't seem like C5 prices have been elevated either so I have nothing to gain with this

I don't think we'll be selling the Beep Beep any time in the next five or more years.

The Corvette market will always be screwed because there's still so many nice low mile examples selling for reasonable prices. Don't buy a vette to get rich.

Wranglers have always maintained excellent value, I'm just not sure how long that will last with the Bronco, Defender, and who knows what else on the horizon.

[D Griff]

Yea, but I really think current used car prices will be short lived.

Depends on new production which is still impacted by covid and whether or not people will work ... tbd. But 110% in used market after 1-2 years being purchased new has gotta stop

I feel like the longer this goes on, the more people will realize their "retail therapy" isn't really possible over the long haul, particularly as .gov bennies are long gone.

We personally realized we were overspending quite a bit as my income is -$50K from the previous year, so we have dialed back to be pretty minimalist. I can't imagine I'm alone in this, and I have certainly partaken in the 'VID buying frenzy with the Jeep, bike shit, dog, etc.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of the useless cars, campers, bikes, boats, you name it, starting to come up for sale over the winter and spring, driving down prices.

We shall see what happens. I think housing is staying until quarantining is fully over.

[max225]

I agree and hope that to be the case. It doesn't seem like C5 prices have been elevated either so I have nothing to gain with this

I don't think we'll be selling the Beep Beep any time in the next five or more years.

The Corvette market will always be screwed because there's still so many nice low mile examples selling for reasonable prices. Don't buy a vette to get rich.

Wranglers have always maintained excellent value, I'm just not sure how long that will last with the Bronco, Defender, and who knows what else on the horizon.

The pandemic is really propping them up, once we have a vaccine and gas prices spike with the new .gov, it’ll be back to 15k for near new JL. Circa 2022.

[Tar]

House prices here keep going 100k over ask; the madness extends beyond cars in the US. We spoke to the condo board insurance group, and they have raised prices by 30%, so we found a new player in the game trying to earn new business in the sector and willing to give us cheap rates, for now! Fuel prices are making a slow but steady comeback, and I can see taxes going up at every opportunity. Inflation is going to be a shit show, IMO. Truly a haves/have nots case scenario.

It isn’t, it’s called inflation due to the unprecedented stimulus put into the economy. I don’t understand how/why the .gov lies on the CPI but it has got to be 20% this year, yet it’s hovering in the low single digits

I don't know why they lie about it as well, maybe to justify keeping rates near zero? I'm weirded out by the whole gov spending spree because the last time that the gov went above and beyond with bailouts Economic brains around the world warned that there is no room to do it again (Feds, Bank of Canada, EU, etc in 2009). So what gives? Is this a fabricated accounting system or are we going to see ? Should we even care? After the '08 bailouts we saw a smooth rise in inflation for years that kept increasing as the economy recovered, but I don't think I can support another 20 to 50% increase in COL unless I find creative new ways to make a living.

[max225]

Depends on new production which is still impacted by covid and whether or not people will work ... tbd. But 110% in used market after 1-2 years being purchased new has gotta stop

I feel like the longer this goes on, the more people will realize their "retail therapy" isn't really possible over the long haul, particularly as .gov bennies are long gone.

We personally realized we were overspending quite a bit as my income is -$50K from the previous year, so we have dialed back to be pretty minimalist. I can't imagine I'm alone in this, and I have certainly partaken in the 'VID buying frenzy with the Jeep, bike shit, dog, etc.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of the useless cars, campers, bikes, boats, you name it, starting to come up for sale over the winter and spring, driving down prices.

We shall see what happens. I think housing is staying until quarantining is fully over.

I think housing will pop, there is a really scary mismatch between rent to own emerging here. You can now rent for $1500 vs own for $4500 in the same fucking location. That balance will begin to shift soon enough.

Either way I’m fully aware than I’m going to fully lose my ass in the next coming years. But it is relative, because I can also live like scrooge mc duck eating ramen while renting a room in a basement on 3 figures a month.

What’s the use in that when you will croak of cancer in the next 2 decades. Life is too damn short, and most of us here are getting pretty old, so it is time to enjoy it while we can.

[D Griff]

I feel like the longer this goes on, the more people will realize their "retail therapy" isn't really possible over the long haul, particularly as .gov bennies are long gone.

We personally realized we were overspending quite a bit as my income is -$50K from the previous year, so we have dialed back to be pretty minimalist. I can't imagine I'm alone in this, and I have certainly partaken in the 'VID buying frenzy with the Jeep, bike shit, dog, etc.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of the useless cars, campers, bikes, boats, you name it, starting to come up for sale over the winter and spring, driving down prices.

We shall see what happens. I think housing is staying until quarantining is fully over.

I think housing will pop, there is a really scary mismatch between rent to own emerging here. You can now rent for $1500 vs own for $4500 in the same fucking location. That balance will begin to shift soon enough.

Either way I’m fully aware than I’m going to fully lose my ass in the next coming years. But it is relative, because I can also live like scrooge mc duck eating ramen while renting a room in a basement on 3 figures a month.

What’s the use in that when you will croak of cancer in the next 2 decades. Life is too damn short, and most of us here are getting pretty old, so it is time to enjoy it while we can.

I am trying to "live my best life/YOLO/ " as much as possible for reasons you mention.

about house prices really, I'd happily see them plummet even though we own one, they are too damn much currently. That said, here it is pretty even on a monthly basis to rent versus own. We have a house with basically an identical floor plan across the street that rents for $1700, our mortgage is $1750 and our house/lot is nicer/better updated. Given that I think owning is superior financially here, especially as prices have gone up 10+% annually.

[D Griff]

It isn’t, it’s called inflation due to the unprecedented stimulus put into the economy. I don’t understand how/why the .gov lies on the CPI but it has got to be 20% this year, yet it’s hovering in the low single digits

I don't know why they lie about it as well, maybe to justify keeping rates near zero? I'm weirded out by the whole gov spending spree because the last time that the gov went above and beyond with bailouts Economic brains around the world warned that there is no room to do it again (Feds, Bank of Canada, EU, etc in 2009). So what gives? Is this a fabricated accounting system or are we going to see ? Should we even care? After the '08 bailouts we saw a smooth rise in inflation for years that kept increasing as the economy recovered, but I don't think I can support another 20 to 50% increase in COL unless I find creative new ways to make a living.

RE: the bolded... I think no. You could seriously make yourself sick worrying about the world/mankind right now and the future. I think you sort of have to make the best of what you've got and try not to think about it. I still save a lot via the 401K but it has been kind of disturbing seeing our "cash on hand" lose tons of value. I guess it's made up for it in house appreciation but we can't afford any other house now so what does it matter? I 50% expect the 401K thing to before I can ever take advantage too, so in the meantime, I am doing my best trying to just be happy and enjoy the little things.

[max225]

I don't know why they lie about it as well, maybe to justify keeping rates near zero? I'm weirded out by the whole gov spending spree because the last time that the gov went above and beyond with bailouts Economic brains around the world warned that there is no room to do it again (Feds, Bank of Canada, EU, etc in 2009). So what gives? Is this a fabricated accounting system or are we going to see ? Should we even care? After the '08 bailouts we saw a smooth rise in inflation for years that kept increasing as the economy recovered, but I don't think I can support another 20 to 50% increase in COL unless I find creative new ways to make a living.

RE: the bolded... I think no. You could seriously make yourself sick worrying about the world/mankind right now and the future. I think you sort of have to make the best of what you've got and try not to think about it. I still save a lot via the 401K but it has been kind of disturbing seeing our "cash on hand" lose tons of value. I guess it's made up for it in house appreciation but we can't afford any other house now so what does it matter? I 50% expect the 401K thing to before I can ever take advantage too, so in the meantime, I am doing my best trying to just be happy and enjoy the little things.

How many years of your current pay do you have in there ?

[D Griff]

RE: the bolded... I think no. You could seriously make yourself sick worrying about the world/mankind right now and the future. I think you sort of have to make the best of what you've got and try not to think about it. I still save a lot via the 401K but it has been kind of disturbing seeing our "cash on hand" lose tons of value. I guess it's made up for it in house appreciation but we can't afford any other house now so what does it matter? I 50% expect the 401K thing to before I can ever take advantage too, so in the meantime, I am doing my best trying to just be happy and enjoy the little things.

How many years of your current pay do you have in there ?

Between one and two last I checked

Kind of , but I didn't really put much more than the base to get full match in until a couple of years ago. Most of my 20s I had shit earnings and also had student debt I was paying off. 31 now and significantly better off than a few years ago, despite this year being a huge step backwards in earnings.

[max225]

How many years of your current pay do you have in there ?

Between one and two last I checked

Kind of , but I didn't really put much more than the base to get full match in until a couple of years ago. Most of my 20s I had shit earnings and also had student debt I was paying off. 31 now and significantly better off than a few years ago, despite this year being a huge step backwards in earnings.

So even at a 50% drop, you’re losing 6 months point is life is NOW.
I’m not even counting on my 401k for anything retirement related. Way too far out and too many variables. Also don’t forget 401ks get taxed .

[D Griff]

Between one and two last I checked

Kind of , but I didn't really put much more than the base to get full match in until a couple of years ago. Most of my 20s I had shit earnings and also had student debt I was paying off. 31 now and significantly better off than a few years ago, despite this year being a huge step backwards in earnings.

So even at a 50% drop, you’re losing 6 months point is life is NOW.
I’m not even counting on my 401k for anything retirement related. Way too far out and too many variables. Also don’t forget 401ks get taxed .

Yeah I'm aware. really. I'm not convinced that retirement in the traditional way will be a thing for most of our generation like it was for our parents... no more pensions, massive inflation, and much longer life expectancies. I know multiple and who worked some job from 20-50 and have been collecting pension for decades not doing shit. That isn't the way of the world anymore.

I am glad to have a job now that's pretty flexible and offers a lot of PTO, I am trying to enjoy shit now. Sure, we save, but who knows if that will ever pay off or not. No reason to focus 100% on that.

[Tar]

I don't know why they lie about it as well, maybe to justify keeping rates near zero? I'm weirded out by the whole gov spending spree because the last time that the gov went above and beyond with bailouts Economic brains around the world warned that there is no room to do it again (Feds, Bank of Canada, EU, etc in 2009). So what gives? Is this a fabricated accounting system or are we going to see ? Should we even care? After the '08 bailouts we saw a smooth rise in inflation for years that kept increasing as the economy recovered, but I don't think I can support another 20 to 50% increase in COL unless I find creative new ways to make a living.

RE: the bolded... I think no. You could seriously make yourself sick worrying about the world/mankind right now and the future. I think you sort of have to make the best of what you've got and try not to think about it. I still save a lot via the 401K but it has been kind of disturbing seeing our "cash on hand" lose tons of value. I guess it's made up for it in house appreciation but we can't afford any other house now so what does it matter? I 50% expect the 401K thing to before I can ever take advantage too, so in the meantime, I am doing my best trying to just be happy and enjoy the little things.

I like to have a plan, but things were good for me from 2009 onwards so it will likely be more of the same I guess. Also, life is way better when I'm optimistic and things kind of work off of that. To your point,

[troyguitar]

I finally got a Carvana quote to go through on my car today. 2020 86 w/ ~3500 miles == $24309, including a $2,178 "local market" adjustment for putting in a Charlotte, NC ZIP code... I'll drive to Charlotte and get a rental car to take home for $2k.

That's only about $1500 in profit vs the loan balance. So much for used cars being hugely valuable.

What was the otd new? 33?

$32k. So $8k to drive 3k miles.

[troyguitar]

RE: the bolded... I think no. You could seriously make yourself sick worrying about the world/mankind right now and the future. I think you sort of have to make the best of what you've got and try not to think about it. I still save a lot via the 401K but it has been kind of disturbing seeing our "cash on hand" lose tons of value. I guess it's made up for it in house appreciation but we can't afford any other house now so what does it matter? I 50% expect the 401K thing to before I can ever take advantage too, so in the meantime, I am doing my best trying to just be happy and enjoy the little things.

I like to have a plan, but things were good for me from 2009 onwards so it will likely be more of the same I guess. Also, life is way better when I'm optimistic and things kind of work off of that. To your point,

Easy for a millionaire to be

[Tar]

I think my R is at 50% of my OTD cost, that's I guess.

[max225]

What was the otd new? 33?

$32k. So $8k to drive 3k miles.

That's what happened with my 370z almost penny for penny and I bought that USED