Auto industry Impact - due to shut down

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Detroit wrote: Tue Apr 21, 2020 11:47 am
max225 wrote: Tue Apr 21, 2020 11:42 am https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/kmx?ltr=1

Carmax stock is down to 65 from mid 90s at the onset...
Ford got slashed in 1/2, why the FK is a used car dealer doing better than a manufacturer, they are equally doomed if anything. Gm is almost down 50% as well...
Used cars might have more upside being more affordable? There's probably also doubt of the long-term viability of the OEMs depending on how long production is down. No production means no cash inflow in a capital intensive business, that's sketch.

Used cars will always be there to sell, and Carmax has a solid brand, reputation, and footprint. I know nothing about their financial position, but if sound I imagine it's a better investment than Fraud.
They sell what the OEMs produce, that means the OEMs can't sell their own shit. It is sort of a bizarre scenario where say an Apple reseller is in a better position than apple itself. Carmax is nothing without the car companies.

Also there is a cratering in used car prices "apparently" so they will have write off a good chunk of their biggest asset, I.e their inventory.

OEMs will be hit on the financing side as a lot of people lease now and the new "low" values will fuck up residuals and make cars "unaffordable". All the lease deals from the last 3-4 years will have to take a write down charge.

Also decreased demand for a bit...

Quite a shitty situation for all. But I don't see Carmax doing all that great... something is seriously wrong with the stock market.
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max225 wrote: Tue Apr 21, 2020 11:51 am
Detroit wrote: Tue Apr 21, 2020 11:47 am
Used cars might have more upside being more affordable? There's probably also doubt of the long-term viability of the OEMs depending on how long production is down. No production means no cash inflow in a capital intensive business, that's sketch.

Used cars will always be there to sell, and Carmax has a solid brand, reputation, and footprint. I know nothing about their financial position, but if sound I imagine it's a better investment than Fraud.
They sell what the OEMs produce, that means the OEMs can't sell their own shit. It is sort of a bizarre scenario where say an Apple reseller is in a better position than apple itself. Carmax is nothing without the car companies.

Also there is a cratering in used car prices "apparently" so they will have write off a good chunk of their biggest asset, I.e their inventory.

OEMs will be hit on the financing side as a lot of people lease now and the new "low" values will fuck up residuals and make cars "unaffordable". All the lease deals from the last 3-4 years will have to take a write down charge.

Also decreased demand for a bit...

Quite a shitty situation for all. But I don't see Carmax doing all that great... something is seriously wrong with the stock market.
Lease residuals could also be propped up by less new car supply from the 1-2 mo production shutdown.

There's just so many unknowns right now, it's impossible to predict what's going to happen. I think that's why the market is continuing the :derp: because nobody really knows what's going to happen.
Desertbreh wrote: Tue Oct 10, 2017 6:40 pm My guess would be that Chris took some time off because he has read the dialogue on this page 1,345 times and decided to spend some of his free time doing something besides beating a horse to death.
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Detroit wrote: Tue Apr 21, 2020 11:54 am
max225 wrote: Tue Apr 21, 2020 11:51 am

They sell what the OEMs produce, that means the OEMs can't sell their own shit. It is sort of a bizarre scenario where say an Apple reseller is in a better position than apple itself. Carmax is nothing without the car companies.

Also there is a cratering in used car prices "apparently" so they will have write off a good chunk of their biggest asset, I.e their inventory.

OEMs will be hit on the financing side as a lot of people lease now and the new "low" values will fuck up residuals and make cars "unaffordable". All the lease deals from the last 3-4 years will have to take a write down charge.

Also decreased demand for a bit...

Quite a shitty situation for all. But I don't see Carmax doing all that great... something is seriously wrong with the stock market.
Lease residuals could also be propped up by less new car supply from the 1-2 mo production shutdown.

There's just so many unknowns right now, it's impossible to predict what's going to happen. I think that's why the market is continuing the :derp: because nobody really knows what's going to happen.
Perhaps we're a bit "ahead" of the curve here pun intended, but this is week 7 for us on lock down... and at least another 4 + to go after which there is a "limited" re-opening which looks like it will be just as restrictive as now (based on the phase 1 .gov roll out) that I have looked at.

So it seems like at least 3 months are on total lock down....+ slow ass recovery as people will be slow to come back, as we're getting quite conditioned to the "AT HOME" life.

This is bizarre.
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max225 wrote: Tue Apr 21, 2020 11:57 am
Detroit wrote: Tue Apr 21, 2020 11:54 am
Lease residuals could also be propped up by less new car supply from the 1-2 mo production shutdown.

There's just so many unknowns right now, it's impossible to predict what's going to happen. I think that's why the market is continuing the :derp: because nobody really knows what's going to happen.
Perhaps we're a bit "ahead" of the curve here pun intended, but this is week 7 for us on lock down... and at least another 4 + to go after which there is a "limited" re-opening which looks like it will be just as restrictive as now (based on the phase 1 .gov roll out) that I have looked at.

So it seems like at least 3 months are on total lock down....+ slow ass recovery as people will be slow to come back, as we're getting quite conditioned to the "AT HOME" life.

This is bizarre.
It's really wild isn't it? Our lockdown is supposed to end on May 1, and many I work with are :excited: to go back to the office :butwhy:

I'll be SHOCKED if we're back in the office before June, personally.
Desertbreh wrote: Tue Oct 10, 2017 6:40 pm My guess would be that Chris took some time off because he has read the dialogue on this page 1,345 times and decided to spend some of his free time doing something besides beating a horse to death.
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Detroit wrote: Tue Apr 21, 2020 12:08 pm
max225 wrote: Tue Apr 21, 2020 11:57 am

Perhaps we're a bit "ahead" of the curve here pun intended, but this is week 7 for us on lock down... and at least another 4 + to go after which there is a "limited" re-opening which looks like it will be just as restrictive as now (based on the phase 1 .gov roll out) that I have looked at.

So it seems like at least 3 months are on total lock down....+ slow ass recovery as people will be slow to come back, as we're getting quite conditioned to the "AT HOME" life.

This is bizarre.
It's really wild isn't it? Our lockdown is supposed to end on May 1, and many I work with are :excited: to go back to the office :butwhy:

I'll be SHOCKED if we're back in the office before June, personally.
Chatted with my bossbro the other day about this and his thought was we are easily WFH until 5/15 at the very earliest. And probably more along the lines of June before we go back to the office.

At least this is saving a few miles on my already horrendously overmileage lease. :lol:
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Detroit wrote: Tue Apr 21, 2020 12:08 pm
max225 wrote: Tue Apr 21, 2020 11:57 am

Perhaps we're a bit "ahead" of the curve here pun intended, but this is week 7 for us on lock down... and at least another 4 + to go after which there is a "limited" re-opening which looks like it will be just as restrictive as now (based on the phase 1 .gov roll out) that I have looked at.

So it seems like at least 3 months are on total lock down....+ slow ass recovery as people will be slow to come back, as we're getting quite conditioned to the "AT HOME" life.

This is bizarre.
It's really wild isn't it? Our lockdown is supposed to end on May 1, and many I work with are :excited: to go back to the office :butwhy:

I'll be SHOCKED if we're back in the office before June, personally.
The gov guidlines for phase 1, which is when this is supposed to be lifted state NO MORE THAN 10 PEOPLE in one place... How the FK can anyone make it to work at that point.
And PPE is required, which is not available anywhere.

Fuck I haven't even seen toilet paper in the stores for 8 weeks now... 8 FUCKING WEEKS
This is insane.
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max225 wrote: Tue Apr 21, 2020 12:13 pm
Detroit wrote: Tue Apr 21, 2020 12:08 pm
It's really wild isn't it? Our lockdown is supposed to end on May 1, and many I work with are :excited: to go back to the office :butwhy:

I'll be SHOCKED if we're back in the office before June, personally.
The gov guidlines for phase 1, which is when this is supposed to be lifted state NO MORE THAN 10 PEOPLE in one place... How the FK can anyone make it to work at that point.
And PPE is required, which is not available anywhere.

Fuck I haven't even seen toilet paper in the stores for 8 weeks now... 8 FUCKING WEEKS
This is insane.
:wat:

My wife went to the store yesterday and said they had plenty of TP. We still have a bunch from before all this so :aintcare: but it's crazy supply hasn't caught up out there.

I think different states will react differently. Fortunately, my state was a hotspot so hopefully it'll be more cautious here than other places.
Desertbreh wrote: Tue Oct 10, 2017 6:40 pm My guess would be that Chris took some time off because he has read the dialogue on this page 1,345 times and decided to spend some of his free time doing something besides beating a horse to death.
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Detroit wrote: Tue Apr 21, 2020 12:18 pm
max225 wrote: Tue Apr 21, 2020 12:13 pm

The gov guidlines for phase 1, which is when this is supposed to be lifted state NO MORE THAN 10 PEOPLE in one place... How the FK can anyone make it to work at that point.
And PPE is required, which is not available anywhere.

Fuck I haven't even seen toilet paper in the stores for 8 weeks now... 8 FUCKING WEEKS
This is insane.
:wat:

My wife went to the store yesterday and said they had plenty of TP. We still have a bunch from before all this so :aintcare: but it's crazy supply hasn't caught up out there.

I think different states will react differently. Fortunately, my state was a hotspot so hopefully it'll be more cautious here than other places.
Yea... you have to ask friends or relatives to see if they saw any in the store, my dad scored some on senior day, and my friend sister went at 8am after waiting in 30 min life to get in.

I started with 12 rolls 8 weeks ago, and still have 6 left I think... so It's not like I am wiping my ass with stray cats. But this has gotten completely ridiculous.

Shit is :disgust:
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We got a nice pack of 3 ply over the weekend. :fancy: That’s another 12 rolls or something so we’re good for awhile.
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Apex wrote: Tue Apr 21, 2020 12:12 pm
Detroit wrote: Tue Apr 21, 2020 12:08 pm
It's really wild isn't it? Our lockdown is supposed to end on May 1, and many I work with are :excited: to go back to the office :butwhy:

I'll be SHOCKED if we're back in the office before June, personally.
Chatted with my bossbro the other day about this and his thought was we are easily WFH until 5/15 at the very earliest. And probably more along the lines of June before we go back to the office.

At least this is saving a few miles on my already horrendously overmileage lease. :lol:
I imagine offices will open up with limited staff/alternating days. Also, they may just have the :derp: s who say they can't work as well at home come back in and leave the productive members of the team in WFH for a while.

This coming from someone with no business background.
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Apex wrote: Tue Apr 21, 2020 12:22 pm We got a nice pack of 3 ply over the weekend. :fancy: That’s another 12 rolls or something so we’re good for awhile.
12 rolls of 3-ply is 36 rolls man...
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fledonfoot wrote: Tue Apr 21, 2020 1:05 pm
Apex wrote: Tue Apr 21, 2020 12:22 pm We got a nice pack of 3 ply over the weekend. :fancy: That’s another 12 rolls or something so we’re good for awhile.
12 rolls of 3-ply is 36 rolls man...
Ain’t nobody got time for single ply.
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Detroit wrote: Tue Apr 21, 2020 12:08 pm
max225 wrote: Tue Apr 21, 2020 11:57 am

Perhaps we're a bit "ahead" of the curve here pun intended, but this is week 7 for us on lock down... and at least another 4 + to go after which there is a "limited" re-opening which looks like it will be just as restrictive as now (based on the phase 1 .gov roll out) that I have looked at.

So it seems like at least 3 months are on total lock down....+ slow ass recovery as people will be slow to come back, as we're getting quite conditioned to the "AT HOME" life.

This is bizarre.
It's really wild isn't it? Our lockdown is supposed to end on May 1, and many I work with are :excited: to go back to the office :butwhy:

I'll be SHOCKED if we're back in the office before June, personally.
Well ask Georgia :lol:
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4zilch wrote: Sat Apr 18, 2020 6:41 am I mean it’s the equivalent of a 1day/week furlough. Personally I’d rather just take two weeks unpaid vacation but it’s not really something that’s feasible from an organizational perspective.

I did elect to take Monday’s off, and with the majority of people taking fridays off means that I can pretty much fuck off on Fridays too. Truthfully right now there’s just not enough work to keep me busy, which sounds nice, but is honestly more alarming than anything.
Same with me, while it may be kind of a retreat, certainly there is no piece of mind in addition to that, god knows what can happen within a few months.
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MexicanYarisTK wrote: Tue Apr 21, 2020 3:11 pm
Detroit wrote: Tue Apr 21, 2020 12:08 pm
It's really wild isn't it? Our lockdown is supposed to end on May 1, and many I work with are :excited: to go back to the office :butwhy:

I'll be SHOCKED if we're back in the office before June, personally.
Well ask Georgia :lol:
:lolol:

Their governor is a certified :derp:
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Wocka Wocka wrote: Tue Apr 21, 2020 3:16 pm
MexicanYarisTK wrote: Tue Apr 21, 2020 3:11 pm

Well ask Georgia :lol:
:lolol:

Their governor is a certified :derp:
:thisisfine:
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MexicanYarisTK wrote: Tue Apr 21, 2020 3:17 pm
Wocka Wocka wrote: Tue Apr 21, 2020 3:16 pm

:lolol:

Their governor is a certified :derp:
:thisisfine:
:dat:
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[user not found] wrote: Tue Apr 21, 2020 3:25 pm Used car wholesale values down 10-12% but retail values down 1% on average.

:derp:
Interesting...

Probably not a ton of data to work from on either statistic right now.
Desertbreh wrote: Tue Oct 10, 2017 6:40 pm My guess would be that Chris took some time off because he has read the dialogue on this page 1,345 times and decided to spend some of his free time doing something besides beating a horse to death.
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[user not found] wrote: Tue Apr 21, 2020 3:37 pm
Detroit wrote: Tue Apr 21, 2020 3:30 pm
Interesting...

Probably not a ton of data to work from on either statistic right now.
I mean, take my Trailcock trade appraisal for example. $25k offer vs. $29-30k book value. Can't imagine I'm alone.
Those values are usually set on auction prices no? Can't imagine a lot of vehicles crossing the blocks the last few weeks.

So "wholesale" right now is probably set mostly by how much risk a :dillerman: is willing to take on, i.e. not much...but they're still going to try to get top dollar for it on sale.

Vehicle values will be screwed for a while from this, and we won't know the extent until shit starts to reopen.
Desertbreh wrote: Tue Oct 10, 2017 6:40 pm My guess would be that Chris took some time off because he has read the dialogue on this page 1,345 times and decided to spend some of his free time doing something besides beating a horse to death.
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[user not found] wrote: Tue Apr 21, 2020 3:25 pm Used car wholesale values down 10-12% but retail values down 1% on average.

:derp:
Yea not seeing much on the retail Side yet but 5/10 FJs “sold” for over 30k in the last 2 weeks (in a 500mile radius from me), and kbb was around 25/29 for all, small data point but it’s a datapoint.

I would think cars like nissans and Mitsubishi’s those targeting those lovely subprime borrowers are absolutely taking a cactus gang bang right now with no lube
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Germany premium marque Porsche has announced that sales worldwide for the first quarter slid by percent for the first quarter of 2020 compared to the same period last year.

Porsche revealed that in the first three months of the year, they have sold 53,125 cars worldwide, slightly lower 55,700 units rolled out back in 2019.

The brand’s total deliveries dipped due to the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Despite the slowndown in overall sales figures, the Stuttgart-based
Porsche sold 8,482 units of its iconic 911 sports car in the first three months of the year, a 16 percent rise from the same period in 20
As I said before, the :waxer: 's are still waxin so don't be looking for P car deals... other than Poorshas
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Detroit wrote: Tue Apr 21, 2020 3:41 pm
[user not found] wrote: Tue Apr 21, 2020 3:37 pm

I mean, take my Trailcock trade appraisal for example. $25k offer vs. $29-30k book value. Can't imagine I'm alone.
Those values are usually set on auction prices no? Can't imagine a lot of vehicles crossing the blocks the last few weeks.

So "wholesale" right now is probably set mostly by how much risk a :dillerman: is willing to take on, i.e. not much...but they're still going to try to get top dollar for it on sale.

Vehicle values will be screwed for a while from this, and we won't know the extent until shit starts to reopen.
:dat: is why Vroom offered me $9K for my 31K mile Beemah I'm sure. They're only going to risk taking on a vehicle they know they will make a solid mint on.
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D Griff wrote: Wed Apr 22, 2020 5:30 pm
Detroit wrote: Tue Apr 21, 2020 3:41 pm
Those values are usually set on auction prices no? Can't imagine a lot of vehicles crossing the blocks the last few weeks.

So "wholesale" right now is probably set mostly by how much risk a :dillerman: is willing to take on, i.e. not much...but they're still going to try to get top dollar for it on sale.

Vehicle values will be screwed for a while from this, and we won't know the extent until shit starts to reopen.
:dat: is why Vroom offered me $9K for my 31K mile Beemah I'm sure. They're only going to risk taking on a vehicle they know they will make a solid mint on.
Same with my GTI $5k, but in the normal fine would, it should I get $8k for sale.
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