Car Talk 5: The Juice is Loose!

[Desertbreh]

+1 Pay area observations are not ROW observations.

Gasoline cars will be around for 50 + years. Just like horses are around today. But this doesn’t mean that a regular “person” will be rolling in a new ICE car in 2030

Great talking point. IDK

[4zilch]

The .gov is forcing EVs...it is the chosen solution for whatever reason and a fully electric vehicle future is eminent. Trucks are tough and will be the last to come along for the reasons you mentioned, but we'll be at 50% EV 5-10 years before you think...2030-2035. By 2045, we'll be nearing all EV. It's going to come fast, internal combustion is dead for better or worse.

Toyota has really lagged with BEV, owning the hybrid space instead. I think that's the right answer for the next 10 or so years for SUVs and trucks, but it's still a losing proposition in the long run.

The perfect answer is a Volt style extended range electric vehicle. Full EV when you can, dump gas in it when you can't. I don't know why the industry hasn't done more of that, I think it's perfect for trucks.

I guess...? I suspect the .gov will back peddle pretty hard in 2030 when they realize that it isn't going to work? And what about all of the existing cars? Cars last 20 years or so, so even if 2045 is 100% EVs for sale, most vehicles on the road will be from the previous decade.

I just find it funny... like who knows anyone who actually owns an EV? I have a pretty large social circle - large family, I keep in touch with friends from high school, college, various workplaces, local cycling community, I regularly talk to hundreds of different people and I know exactly one who owns an EV. Of all of those people, many would never be able to have one in anything similar to the current climate due to living situations and stuff.

I'm not anti-EV by any means, just very skeptical that it will actually happen in any sort of quick way.

I think what he’s saying is vehicles offered for sale. ICE vehicles will be on the road for a long time.

Fwiw, I know a few Tesla and volt/bolt owners and see more EVs on TOTD YoY. IF we get more DC fast chargers in the infrastructure and figure out solid state batteries, the numbers will continue to grow.

I’m moderately skeptical that we’ll be at 100% ev for sale by 2045, I’d venture to guess a plateau at 60-80%, but time (and technology) will tell.

Hydrogen is also finally gaining momentum. Though I don’t think it’s going to be a big player in the consumer market and will probably be relegated to medium and heavy commercial truck where range/weight matters.

Still lots to figure out, buts gonna be interesting to watch.

[ChrisoftheNorth]

More than likely it'll launch as an ICE but the platform will be setup to accept electrification in the very near future. Electrification eats in to profits drastically, so kicking the can for as long as possible is the way. Trucks are last because they're treated differently by the EPA.

I'd be shocked if it was BEV, but a hybrid could be

Last I heard before I left was new Tundra mid 2022 with a turbo V6 replacing the 5.7 that sucks down fuel, and a hybrid turbo V6 available as a “premium” drivetrain option.

2022 for the new 4Runner which will also have a “Prime” variant like the Prius and Rav.

2023 brings the new Taco for MY24 with a V6 hybrid option as the “big” engine.

This is what I'd expect.

[Apex]

Last I heard before I left was new Tundra mid 2022 with a turbo V6 replacing the 5.7 that sucks down fuel, and a hybrid turbo V6 available as a “premium” drivetrain option.

2022 for the new 4Runner which will also have a “Prime” variant like the Prius and Rav.

2023 brings the new Taco for MY24 with a V6 hybrid option as the “big” engine.

This is what I'd expect.

Any word of a Hemi being added to the JT?

[ChrisoftheNorth]

I guess...? I suspect the .gov will back peddle pretty hard in 2030 when they realize that it isn't going to work? And what about all of the existing cars? Cars last 20 years or so, so even if 2045 is 100% EVs for sale, most vehicles on the road will be from the previous decade.

I just find it funny... like who knows anyone who actually owns an EV? I have a pretty large social circle - large family, I keep in touch with friends from high school, college, various workplaces, local cycling community, I regularly talk to hundreds of different people and I know exactly one who owns an EV. Of all of those people, many would never be able to have one in anything similar to the current climate due to living situations and stuff.

I'm not anti-EV by any means, just very skeptical that it will actually happen in any sort of quick way.

I think what he’s saying is vehicles offered for sale. ICE vehicles will be on the road for a long time.

Fwiw, I know a few Tesla and volt/bolt owners and see more EVs on TOTD YoY. IF we get more DC fast chargers in the infrastructure and figure out solid state batteries, the numbers will continue to grow.

I’m moderately skeptical that we’ll be at 100% ev for sale by 2045, I’d venture to guess a plateau at 60-80%, but time (and technology) will tell.

Hydrogen is also finally gaining momentum. Though I don’t think it’s going to be a big player in the consumer market and will probably be relegated to medium and heavy commercial truck where range/weight matters.

Still lots to figure out, buts gonna be interesting to watch.

The country's vehicle fleet won't go full EV for decades. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if in the short term, there's increased demand/value for used ICE vehicles when they can't be purchased anymore. But new sales are gong to shift faster than we think.

Not even Trump with all his bluster did anything to change the .gov EV push. It's unavoidable and happening whether we like it or not. I just hope there's enough investment in infrastructure (charging and power grid) to support the change. AND there needs to be some incentive for people to want these things.

Hydrogen is a fantastic solution, and I really hope it does start to gain some real ground as a commercially viable option for medium to heavy duty fleets.

[ChrisoftheNorth]

This is what I'd expect.

Any word of a Hemi being added to the JT?

The days of big engines in small things are numbered.

[Apex]

Any word of a Hemi being added to the JT?

The days of big engines in small things are numbered.

Make it happen!

[ChrisoftheNorth]

The days of big engines in small things are numbered.

Make it happen!

I don't care nearly enough to try.

[Apex]

Make it happen!

I don't care nearly enough to try.

[Tar]

We've got three homes on our street with Teslas, two have a Model 3, and one has a Model 3 and a S. for a street with about 50 homes, and approximately 26 pools. Bunch of up in hurr.

[max225]

We've got three homes on our street with Teslas, two have a Model 3, and one has a Model 3 and a S. for a street with about 50 homes, and approximately 26 pools. Bunch of up in hurr.

Teslas aren't that expensive tho, most are 40-55k, which is just about average now. I still don't understand how Tesla as "brand" is as high as it is. Nothing that elite about them.

[Tar]

We've got three homes on our street with Teslas, two have a Model 3, and one has a Model 3 and a S. for a street with about 50 homes, and approximately 26 pools. Bunch of up in hurr.

Teslas aren't that expensive tho, most are 40-55k, which is just about average now. I still don't understand how Tesla as "brand" is as high as it is. Nothing that elite about them.

Fair point, it's midrange pricing but still works out to about 70k with the better range, which is double the price of a camry/golf/civic type purchase.

My point is that the volume of Teslas on the road are notably higher then they were a couple of years ago, and people are willing to dish out a little extra to have have one in their stable.

[ChrisoftheNorth]

We've got three homes on our street with Teslas, two have a Model 3, and one has a Model 3 and a S. for a street with about 50 homes, and approximately 26 pools. Bunch of up in hurr.

Teslas aren't that expensive tho, most are 40-55k, which is just about average now. I still don't understand how Tesla as "brand" is as high as it is. Nothing that elite about them.

There was a time when Coors was considered "premium" east of the rockies because it wasn't distributed out here. Hell, the first Smokey and the Bandit movie was based entirely around smuggling Coors across the Mississippi river. Meanwhile, everyone west of the Rockies and used to the beer didn't see what the big deal was.

Scarcity is a powerful branding tool. There's still many states (mine included) where you can't buy a Tesla. Period. You need to leave the state to buy it elsewhere and bring it back. That makes it special and thus premium because not many people are willing to go through that hassle for a car. Owners then brag about the effort they had to go through to get their unique car that nobody else has, which leads to almost all of them having personalized plates and a brand "halo" in these areas. I've heard people at parties brag about the efforts they had to go through to get their cars, or planning to buy one and their plan for transporting it. It's become a bit of a middle finger to the .gov while serving as bragging rights to be rich enough or devoted enough to go through the hassle of getting the thing.

So to you in CA, they're just the new Camry. But in many other areas, Teslas are still somewhat of a unicorn, something you read about online but never see. We have one Tesla in our neighborhood, a Model X.

[max225]

Teslas aren't that expensive tho, most are 40-55k, which is just about average now. I still don't understand how Tesla as "brand" is as high as it is. Nothing that elite about them.

Fair point, it's midrange pricing but still works out to about 70k with the better range, which is double the price of a camry/golf/civic type purchase.

My point is that the volume of Teslas on the road are notably higher then they were a couple of years ago, and people are willing to dish out a little extra to have have one in their stable.

38.5 is the current entry price into a model 3 which is already pretty decently spec'd. Almost no one is buying Model X's and model S's. They are quite dated at the moment.

[coogles]

There was a time when Coors was considered "premium" east of the rockies because it wasn't distributed out here. Hell, the first Smokey and the Bandit movie was based entirely around smuggling Coors across the Mississippi river. Meanwhile, everyone west of the Rockies and used to the beer didn't see what the big deal was.

Scarcity is a powerful branding tool. There's still many states (mine included) where you can't buy a Tesla. Period. You need to leave the state to buy it elsewhere and bring it back. That makes it special and thus premium because not many people are willing to go through that hassle for a car. Owners then brag about the effort they had to go through to get their unique car that nobody else has, which leads to almost all of them having personalized plates and a brand "halo" in these areas. I've heard people at parties brag about the efforts they had to go through to get their cars, or planning to buy one and their plan for transporting it. It's become a bit of a middle finger to the .gov while serving as bragging rights to be rich enough or devoted enough to go through the hassle of getting the thing.

So to you in CA, they're just the new Camry. But in many other areas, Teslas are still somewhat of a unicorn, something you read about online but never see. We have one Tesla in our neighborhood, a Model X.

I see one every once in awhile, but they are far from common.

[max225]

I guess...? I suspect the .gov will back peddle pretty hard in 2030 when they realize that it isn't going to work? And what about all of the existing cars? Cars last 20 years or so, so even if 2045 is 100% EVs for sale, most vehicles on the road will be from the previous decade.

I just find it funny... like who knows anyone who actually owns an EV? I have a pretty large social circle - large family, I keep in touch with friends from high school, college, various workplaces, local cycling community, I regularly talk to hundreds of different people and I know exactly one who owns an EV. Of all of those people, many would never be able to have one in anything similar to the current climate due to living situations and stuff.

I'm not anti-EV by any means, just very skeptical that it will actually happen in any sort of quick way.

I think what he’s saying is vehicles offered for sale. ICE vehicles will be on the road for a long time.

Fwiw, I know a few Tesla and volt/bolt owners and see more EVs on TOTD YoY. IF we get more DC fast chargers in the infrastructure and figure out solid state batteries, the numbers will continue to grow.

I’m moderately skeptical that we’ll be at 100% ev for sale by 2045, I’d venture to guess a plateau at 60-80%, but time (and technology) will tell.

Hydrogen is also finally gaining momentum. Though I don’t think it’s going to be a big player in the consumer market and will probably be relegated to medium and heavy commercial truck where range/weight matters.

Still lots to figure out, buts gonna be interesting to watch.

California has banned ICE (New sales) as of 2035, I think several other states already followed. Also plenty of countries in Europe which are also HUGE manufacturing centers are banning ICE as well around the same time. So that timeline is tight and tons of steps already taken, I believe BMW/VW have clearly stated they stopped spending on ICE. And they are all going on EVs now... I would be shocked if there are many new ICE's on the lot even in the middle of no where. Ford already introduced an electric F150 and we're 12 years out from 2035...

[wap]

There was a time when Coors was considered "premium" east of the rockies because it wasn't distributed out here. Hell, the first Smokey and the Bandit movie was based entirely around smuggling Coors across the Mississippi river. Meanwhile, everyone west of the Rockies and used to the beer didn't see what the big deal was.

Scarcity is a powerful branding tool. There's still many states (mine included) where you can't buy a Tesla. Period. You need to leave the state to buy it elsewhere and bring it back. That makes it special and thus premium because not many people are willing to go through that hassle for a car. Owners then brag about the effort they had to go through to get their unique car that nobody else has, which leads to almost all of them having personalized plates and a brand "halo" in these areas. I've heard people at parties brag about the efforts they had to go through to get their cars, or planning to buy one and their plan for transporting it. It's become a bit of a middle finger to the .gov while serving as bragging rights to be rich enough or devoted enough to go through the hassle of getting the thing.

So to you in CA, they're just the new Camry. But in many other areas, Teslas are still somewhat of a unicorn, something you read about online but never see. We have one Tesla in our neighborhood, a Model X.

I see one every once in awhile, but they are far from common.

Yep. There are 3-4 in my town that I've seen, plus one Taycan a few blocks from me that I almost never see but once saw parked on a street and noticed a Porsche charging plug installed in their garage so I figured it wasn't just visiting.

[ChrisoftheNorth]

I think what he’s saying is vehicles offered for sale. ICE vehicles will be on the road for a long time.

Fwiw, I know a few Tesla and volt/bolt owners and see more EVs on TOTD YoY. IF we get more DC fast chargers in the infrastructure and figure out solid state batteries, the numbers will continue to grow.

I’m moderately skeptical that we’ll be at 100% ev for sale by 2045, I’d venture to guess a plateau at 60-80%, but time (and technology) will tell.

Hydrogen is also finally gaining momentum. Though I don’t think it’s going to be a big player in the consumer market and will probably be relegated to medium and heavy commercial truck where range/weight matters.

Still lots to figure out, buts gonna be interesting to watch.

California has banned ICE (New sales) as of 2035, I think several other states already followed. Also plenty of countries in Europe which are also HUGE manufacturing centers are banning ICE as well around the same time. So that timeline is tight and tons of steps already taken, I believe BMW/VW have clearly stated they stopped spending on ICE. And they are all going on EVs now... I would be shocked if there are many new ICE's on the lot even in the middle of no where. Ford already introduced an electric F150 and we're 12 years out from 2035...

There will be no more major development on ICE powertrains...ever again from anyone. Which is a shame because I think there's still room for efficiency improvements, but whatever the .gov has forced the market here, for better or worse.

[Tar]

Fair point, it's midrange pricing but still works out to about 70k with the better range, which is double the price of a camry/golf/civic type purchase.

My point is that the volume of Teslas on the road are notably higher then they were a couple of years ago, and people are willing to dish out a little extra to have have one in their stable.

38.5 is the current entry price into a model 3 which is already pretty decently spec'd. Almost no one is buying Model X's and model S's. They are quite dated at the moment.

The S badly needs a rework to move in volume. I suspect everyone wants to sit up high nowadays.

[max225]

https://autos.yahoo.com/toyota-land-cru ... 00978.html

This powertrain in the taco would be amazing

[Desertbreh]

We've got three homes on our street with Teslas, two have a Model 3, and one has a Model 3 and a S. for a street with about 50 homes, and approximately 26 pools. Bunch of up in hurr.

Teslas aren't that expensive tho, most are 40-55k, which is just about average now. I still don't understand how Tesla as "brand" is as high as it is. Nothing that elite about them.

Unpopular opinion, Teslas can go suck it except maybe for the P100 Model S......and that's only because it's

1. Model X is ugly ass tupperware, winged doors and all. And dated? Do you even refresh bro?
2. Model S has been here longer than a WK2. BORING
3. Model 3. This car is mostly driven by douchenozzles who hate fucking cars. And they are POOR douchenozzles because they cannot afford a P100 Model S. Is there stigma for driving a Widebody Hellcat Challenger? YES, 9 out of 10 times you aspire be in a Mexican gang. Not much different with a Model 3.

Plus the owner of the company is such a raging egomaniac that DT looks humble by comparison. No thanks.

[max225]

Teslas aren't that expensive tho, most are 40-55k, which is just about average now. I still don't understand how Tesla as "brand" is as high as it is. Nothing that elite about them.

Unpopular opinion, Teslas can go suck it except maybe for the P100 Model S......and that's only because it's

1. Model X is ugly ass tupperware, winged doors and all. And dated? Do you even refresh bro?
2. Model S has been here longer than a WK2. BORING
3. Model 3. This car is mostly driven by douchenozzles who hate fucking cars. And they are POOR douchenozzles because they cannot afford a P100 Model S. Is there stigma for driving a Widebody Hellcat Challenger? YES, 9 out of 10 times you aspire be in a Mexican gang. Not much different with a Model 3.

Plus the owner of the company is such a raging egomaniac that DT looks humble by comparison. No thanks.

I do think the biggest 's drive 3s and Ys... its like mostly Indian Bro grammers... azn females that pilot them into oblivion which is probably ok. Since the safety of them prevents quite a few accidents...

[Johnny_P]

New Kia Sportage looks nice. Interior is bangin. If they offer the turbo hybrid that the Tucson has it will be a legit contender for next car.

[fledonfoot]

https://autos.yahoo.com/toyota-land-cru ... 00978.html

This powertrain in the taco would be amazing

It’s going in the Tundra and sequoia.

[max225]

https://autos.yahoo.com/toyota-land-cru ... 00978.html

This powertrain in the taco would be amazing

It’s going in the Tundra and sequoia.

Yep, they are replacing the 5.7 with that claiming that it will get "better mpg" i am sure. While I doubt it'll cause a big change in the real world vs the fake EPA #s. Similar to what ford did by replacing their 5.4 with the 2.7/3.5 eco boosts. Man Toyota is really over a decade behind everyone else when it comes to powertrains.