Car talk tré: Carpocalypse Now!

[CorvetteWaxer]

Yeah, I was reading that story the other day and it clicked for me too on why I was shocked that dude got his car delivered in 2 days.

Based on his "quality" example, I can only imagine that many of the cars in inventory have similar problems, so there's no way I would take delivery of a car straight from the transport truck without some serious inspection.

How much do you want to bet the delivery drivers try to schedule these drop-offs in the evening/night hours so they can get out of there w/o hearing the complaints?

Most people don't care and know they're buying a poorly built product, but supporting "the cause" or "changing the world" or whatever

This fits with my assessment that "most people" are morans, so I will allow it.

[max225]

Who the fk had the time an engineering resources to develop a good tune for the P car... seems like a gamble I’d never take. Just buy the faster car....

The faster car is the turbo, which loses some of the feel according to the fan boys.

The access port basically ups the boost a couple psi on these bigger turbo on the GTS and adjusts timing. From what I've read, everyone loves this mod and it's been out since about may. I'd wait at least a couple years before I did it. From what I'm seeing I think the GTS will be quick enough for me. I am only concerned if I will be okay with the PDK as the manual car inventory options are few and far between as well as missing some features the PDK has (launch control, over boost button, etc).

Just saw a red one ... in Walnut Creek again ... how common are these things ..

[max225]

Explains why a guy can order a Model 3 and have it delivered in a few short days. They appear to be missing sales and hence have cars avail - Tesla shares tumble 9% as company misses Wall Street vehicle delivery estimates, cuts prices.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/31/tesla-4 ... mbers.html

I sold My model 3 aka my stock in Tesla because I don’t think they can sell 300k a year of those things ... but they are only in the us for now. Europe and china are immensely wealthy and currently untapped

[max225]

Interesting. Seems there is a true “balance” in the force when it comes to market share.

Its a stinging indictment of the makers ignoring what folks might actually need. Stock buybacks and luxing up anything to make a buck since everyone has the last name Gates I guess. Either way folks who need affordable transportation will have tough luck in the used market as new vehicles that become old/lease turn in's etc are not what they want. As I stated earlier the poors dont want an F150 to drive daily nor can they afford it. It makes most if not all auto makers look stupid, yet they can deflect by saying they are only producing what the market 'wants', yet it says otherwise in the market as a whole. Most folks arent rich and are struggling to stay even middle class.

Its diff over here big time. The choice is amazing. I gots zero sympathy for the makers. They market what you think you want and they do a good job of convincing you about that over all. Marketing is very powerful as a 'Force'.

This is pretty misguided overall. Americans want trucks, for whatever retarded reason. F150 has been top selling reason for 50 years now, whether we can afford it or not

[CorvetteWaxer]

The faster car is the turbo, which loses some of the feel according to the fan boys.

The access port basically ups the boost a couple psi on these bigger turbo on the GTS and adjusts timing. From what I've read, everyone loves this mod and it's been out since about may. I'd wait at least a couple years before I did it. From what I'm seeing I think the GTS will be quick enough for me. I am only concerned if I will be okay with the PDK as the manual car inventory options are few and far between as well as missing some features the PDK has (launch control, over boost button, etc).

Just saw a red one ... in Walnut Creek again ... how common are these things ..

More and more common.

My nephew works at a hotel in Walnut Creek and says there's 2 of them that drive by the hotel multiple times a day, a red one and a green one. (assuming we're talking about RS models)

Also seeing on Rennlist that the "plain" GT3's are selling private party for about $175-180K, which upholds the $200K dealer pricepoint since the ones I've seen at the dealer are CPO and have dat extended warranty. At the same time, a guy on there is listing a used 0 mile GT2RS for $479,000.

I saw a video the other day with a guy showing a 911 R on the showroom floor for $200k. This is an old link, but shows where the pricing once was for those cars, and explains exactly why I won't pay a premium for any car: https://carbuzz.com/news/porsche-911-r- ... to-plummet

[max225]

Just saw a red one ... in Walnut Creek again ... how common are these things ..

More and more common.

My nephew works at a hotel in Walnut Creek and says there's 2 of them that drive by the hotel multiple times a day, a red one and a green one. (assuming we're talking about RS models)

Also seeing on Rennlist that the "plain" GT3's are selling private party for about $175-180K, which upholds the $200K dealer pricepoint since the ones I've seen at the dealer are CPO and have dat extended warranty. At the same time, a guy on there is listing a used 0 mile GT2RS for $479,000.

I saw a video the other day with a guy showing a 911 R on the showroom floor for $200k. This is an old link, but shows where the pricing once was for those cars, and explains exactly why I won't pay a premium for any car: https://carbuzz.com/news/porsche-911-r- ... to-plummet

So fAr prices are super steady new and used though...

[CorvetteWaxer]

More and more common.

My nephew works at a hotel in Walnut Creek and says there's 2 of them that drive by the hotel multiple times a day, a red one and a green one. (assuming we're talking about RS models)

Also seeing on Rennlist that the "plain" GT3's are selling private party for about $175-180K, which upholds the $200K dealer pricepoint since the ones I've seen at the dealer are CPO and have dat extended warranty. At the same time, a guy on there is listing a used 0 mile GT2RS for $479,000.

I saw a video the other day with a guy showing a 911 R on the showroom floor for $200k. This is an old link, but shows where the pricing once was for those cars, and explains exactly why I won't pay a premium for any car: https://carbuzz.com/news/porsche-911-r- ... to-plummet

So fAr prices are super steady new and used though...

For how long?

I sure wouldn't want to be the sucker that paid some dealer over $1M for a 911R, then have Porsche pissed and introduce cars to the market that remove most of the exclusivity of the one I bought.

It is good for a laugh though, knowing some idiot with too much money and not enough brain power is disgusted when they look at their "investment".

[ChrisoftheNorth]

Most people don't care and know they're buying a poorly built product, but supporting "the cause" or "changing the world" or whatever

This fits with my assessment that "most people" are morans, so I will allow it.

[ChrisoftheNorth]

Explains why a guy can order a Model 3 and have it delivered in a few short days. They appear to be missing sales and hence have cars avail - Tesla shares tumble 9% as company misses Wall Street vehicle delivery estimates, cuts prices.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/31/tesla-4 ... mbers.html

I sold My model 3 aka my stock in Tesla because I don’t think they can sell 300k a year of those things ... but they are only in the us for now. Europe and china are immensely wealthy and currently untapped

I really don't think sales volume will be the issue once availability in other markets increases.

[max225]

So fAr prices are super steady new and used though...

For how long?

I sure wouldn't want to be the sucker that paid some dealer over $1M for a 911R, then have Porsche pissed and introduce cars to the market that remove most of the exclusivity of the one I bought.

It is good for a laugh though, knowing some idiot with too much money and not enough brain power is disgusted when they look at their "investment".

I am not one to believe in things like exclusivity. If I can buy the exact same car for 1/5th the price I will. This limited production bullshit I mentioned earlier. There is no reason for 30+ 911 models. I don’t see you getting to play the exclusivity game either, there is no point especially in a Porsche. That brand is not expensive enough to be “exclusive”. They sell way too many vehicles and now golf based suvs for that

[CorvetteWaxer]

For how long?

I sure wouldn't want to be the sucker that paid some dealer over $1M for a 911R, then have Porsche pissed and introduce cars to the market that remove most of the exclusivity of the one I bought.

It is good for a laugh though, knowing some idiot with too much money and not enough brain power is disgusted when they look at their "investment".

I am not one to believe in things like exclusivity. If I can buy the exact same car for 1/5th the price I will. This limited production bullshit I mentioned earlier. There is no reason for 30+ 911 models. I don’t see you getting to play the exclusivity game either, there is no point especially in a Porsche. That brand is not expensive enough to be “exclusive”. They sell way too many vehicles and now golf based suvs for that

Exactly.

This is probably why most of the Porsche dealers I've talked to are fine not selling me a car... there are too many morans mentioned previously that will.

When this GTS shows up, if I can't get a decent discount on it I will gladly keep my Z a bit longer and look for something else.

I washed the Z yesterday in the cold and wind and actually enjoyed it. That car is still super clean, even with the handful of rock chips on the front and in front of the rear wheels. You only notice them when you're right up on it washing it.

Weird thing though.... I thought the battery was dying last night even though it was on a tender. It seems that the FOB that basically has sat in the safe since I bought the car had a low battery and trying to use it put the car in some lockout mode where even the other FOB didn't work. I had to manually pop the hatch a couple times and set off the alarm trying to figuring it out... then I replaced the battery in the suspicious FOB and all is normal.

[max225]

I am not one to believe in things like exclusivity. If I can buy the exact same car for 1/5th the price I will. This limited production bullshit I mentioned earlier. There is no reason for 30+ 911 models. I don’t see you getting to play the exclusivity game either, there is no point especially in a Porsche. That brand is not expensive enough to be “exclusive”. They sell way too many vehicles and now golf based suvs for that

Exactly.

This is probably why most of the Porsche dealers I've talked to are fine not selling me a car... there are too many morans mentioned previously that will.

When this GTS shows up, if I can't get a decent discount on it I will gladly keep my Z a bit longer and look for something else.

I washed the Z yesterday in the cold and wind and actually enjoyed it. That car is still super clean, even with the handful of rock chips on the front and in front of the rear wheels. You only notice them when you're right up on it washing it.

Weird thing though.... I thought the battery was dying last night even though it was on a tender. It seems that the FOB that basically has sat in the safe since I bought the car had a low battery and trying to use it put the car in some lockout mode where even the other FOB didn't work. I had to manually pop the hatch a couple times and set off the alarm trying to figuring it out... then I replaced the battery in the suspicious FOB and all is normal.

How many miles on that thing ?

Yesterday things got “cold” out here i saw a 37F ice warning on my m3. Can you believe I was on summer tires ? Man the car still ate up the canyons I went through. I did take out a school bus or 3

[CorvetteWaxer]

Exactly.

This is probably why most of the Porsche dealers I've talked to are fine not selling me a car... there are too many morans mentioned previously that will.

When this GTS shows up, if I can't get a decent discount on it I will gladly keep my Z a bit longer and look for something else.

I washed the Z yesterday in the cold and wind and actually enjoyed it. That car is still super clean, even with the handful of rock chips on the front and in front of the rear wheels. You only notice them when you're right up on it washing it.

Weird thing though.... I thought the battery was dying last night even though it was on a tender. It seems that the FOB that basically has sat in the safe since I bought the car had a low battery and trying to use it put the car in some lockout mode where even the other FOB didn't work. I had to manually pop the hatch a couple times and set off the alarm trying to figuring it out... then I replaced the battery in the suspicious FOB and all is normal.

How many miles on that thing ?

Yesterday things got “cold” out here i saw a 37F ice warning on my m3. Can you believe I was on summer tires ? Man the car still ate up the canyons I went through. I did take out a school bus or 3

I am at 9980 miles on it as of now.

Yeah, I was getting strange looks from everyone in my neighborhood because I was out there in a T-Shirt and shorts and sandals as the sun was going down, pretty much soaking wet. A woman was walking her dog and stopped to ask if I was crazy. I told her no, the booze was keeping me warm while showing her my bottle of scotch and told her it was my birthday and a little cold weather wasn't going to stop me. She laughed and wished me a happy new year/birthday and went on her way.

[Huckleberry]

So the truth about car sales - https://wolfstreet.com/2018/12/29/carma ... s-are-hot/

But have Americans really given up on cars? Nope.
Obviously, when you look around there are still a lot of cars on the streets. Turns out, where cars are hot is in the used vehicle sector – particularly bread-and-butter cars that people can afford.

In 2018, new-vehicle sales will be a tad over 17 million units, retail and fleet combined. But used-vehicle sales will be about 40 million units, sold by franchised dealers (such as Ford or Toyota dealers), independent used-vehicle dealers, and individuals. The used-vehicle retail market is backed by a large and liquid wholesale market where rental cars, lease-turn-ins, repos, etc. are sold at auction to dealers.

The largest auto-auction company in North America, Manheim – running about 8 million used vehicles through its auctions and online venues a year – points out the demand for basic used cars in its auction report for November:

On a year-over-year basis, most major market segments saw price gains in November; but more affordable vehicles continue to see the greatest increase in values. Compact cars and midsize cars outperformed the overall market, while utility vehicles and pickups underperformed the overall market.

In other words, what’s hot in new vehicle sales (SUVs and pickups) is less than lukewarm in the used vehicle auction market. And what is ice-cold in the new-vehicle market (cars) is red-hot in the used-vehicle market.

It'll be interesting to see how much used car prices rise and used truck prices fall in the coming years, especially if the used car supply is going to dwindle while used trucks flood the market.

[max225]

How many miles on that thing ?

Yesterday things got “cold” out here i saw a 37F ice warning on my m3. Can you believe I was on summer tires ? Man the car still ate up the canyons I went through. I did take out a school bus or 3

I am at 9980 miles on it as of now.

Yeah, I was getting strange looks from everyone in my neighborhood because I was out there in a T-Shirt and shorts and sandals as the sun was going down, pretty much soaking wet. A woman was walking her dog and stopped to ask if I was crazy. I told her no, the booze was keeping me warm while showing her my bottle of scotch and told her it was my birthday and a little cold weather wasn't going to stop me. She laughed and wished me a happy new year/birthday and went on her way.

Happy belated ! Was it a bottle of 21?

[max225]

So the truth about car sales - https://wolfstreet.com/2018/12/29/carma ... s-are-hot/

But have Americans really given up on cars? Nope.
Obviously, when you look around there are still a lot of cars on the streets. Turns out, where cars are hot is in the used vehicle sector – particularly bread-and-butter cars that people can afford.

In 2018, new-vehicle sales will be a tad over 17 million units, retail and fleet combined. But used-vehicle sales will be about 40 million units, sold by franchised dealers (such as Ford or Toyota dealers), independent used-vehicle dealers, and individuals. The used-vehicle retail market is backed by a large and liquid wholesale market where rental cars, lease-turn-ins, repos, etc. are sold at auction to dealers.

The largest auto-auction company in North America, Manheim – running about 8 million used vehicles through its auctions and online venues a year – points out the demand for basic used cars in its auction report for November:

On a year-over-year basis, most major market segments saw price gains in November; but more affordable vehicles continue to see the greatest increase in values. Compact cars and midsize cars outperformed the overall market, while utility vehicles and pickups underperformed the overall market.

In other words, what’s hot in new vehicle sales (SUVs and pickups) is less than lukewarm in the used vehicle auction market. And what is ice-cold in the new-vehicle market (cars) is red-hot in the used-vehicle market.

It'll be interesting to see how much used car prices rise and used truck prices fall in the coming years, especially if the used car supply is going to dwindle while used trucks flood the market.

Yep, trucks should and have been historically the cheapest used vehicle one can buy... the current situation will certainly go down this path.

[CorvetteWaxer]

I am at 9980 miles on it as of now.

Yeah, I was getting strange looks from everyone in my neighborhood because I was out there in a T-Shirt and shorts and sandals as the sun was going down, pretty much soaking wet. A woman was walking her dog and stopped to ask if I was crazy. I told her no, the booze was keeping me warm while showing her my bottle of scotch and told her it was my birthday and a little cold weather wasn't going to stop me. She laughed and wished me a happy new year/birthday and went on her way.

Happy belated ! Was it a bottle of 21?

Thank you, It was the 25 year that my boss got me for Christmas.

[Apex]

Happy belated ! Was it a bottle of 21?

Thank you, It was the 25 year that my boss got me for Christmas.

Happy belated !

[ChrisoftheNorth]

Gas is under $2/gallon here. I had to fill up the Volt today, which was weird.

I paid under $20 to fill the thing up. While I was excited that it was so cheap, it made me realize that the car is now worthless.

[CorvetteWaxer]

Gas is under $2/gallon here. I had to fill up the Volt today, which was weird.

I paid under $20 to fill the thing up. While I was excited that it was so cheap, it made me realize that the car is now worthless.

Move back here. I'm still paying over $3.50 for 91 octane.

[CorvetteWaxer]

Thank you, It was the 25 year that my boss got me for Christmas.

Happy belated !

Thanks, man.

[ChrisoftheNorth]

Gas is under $2/gallon here. I had to fill up the Volt today, which was weird.

I paid under $20 to fill the thing up. While I was excited that it was so cheap, it made me realize that the car is now worthless.

Move back here. I'm still paying over $3.50 for 91 octane.

93 was $2.79 while 87 was $1.99. The delta is crazy, but still cheaper than $3.50.

I'd need triple my current salary for CA to even remotely make sense again. That's not happening.

[CorvetteWaxer]

Move back here. I'm still paying over $3.50 for 91 octane.

93 was $2.79 while 87 was $1.99. The delta is crazy, but still cheaper than $3.50.

I'd need triple my current salary for CA to even remotely make sense again. That's not happening.

It was worth a shot.

So.......

What do you think will happen with Tesla sales now that it's 2019 and the tax incentive is reduced?

EDIT: Ah.. so Tesla is trying to absorb about 50% of the incentive reduction: https://electrek.co/2019/01/02/tesla-re ... t-model-3/

[Davestr]

Explains why a guy can order a Model 3 and have it delivered in a few short days. They appear to be missing sales and hence have cars avail - Tesla shares tumble 9% as company misses Wall Street vehicle delivery estimates, cuts prices.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/31/tesla-4 ... mbers.html

Yeah, I was reading that story the other day and it clicked for me too on why I was shocked that dude got his car delivered in 2 days.

Based on his "quality" example, I can only imagine that many of the cars in inventory have similar problems, so there's no way I would take delivery of a car straight from the transport truck without some serious inspection.

How much do you want to bet the delivery drivers try to schedule these drop-offs in the evening/night hours so they can get out of there w/o hearing the complaints?

Your delivery theory sounds like something a guy who digs tunnels to save LA would LOL

[ChrisoftheNorth]

93 was $2.79 while 87 was $1.99. The delta is crazy, but still cheaper than $3.50.

I'd need triple my current salary for CA to even remotely make sense again. That's not happening.

It was worth a shot.

So.......

What do you think will happen with Tesla sales now that it's 2019 and the tax incentive is reduced?

EDIT: Ah.. so Tesla is trying to absorb about 50% of the incentive reduction: https://electrek.co/2019/01/02/tesla-re ... t-model-3/

I think demand is going to wane a bit, regardless of the tax break expiration. Gas is way too cheap for EVs to make sense, and US car buyers are too short sighted to realize that gas will go up at some point. I'm probably just going to keep the Volt forever.

But as Max pointed out, Europe is a huge untapped market for Tesla, as is China. I imagine Tesla can make up volume losses in the US with exports to Europe and China, assuming doesn't completely that opportunity.

Tesla's real test is servicing all this volume now out there. I still think Musk has completely underestimated the costs associated with service and service parts distribution for the scale of vehicles they now have in the market. Considering how fast the Model 3 was developed, and how many it cranked out in short order, one costly bad component could be big trouble for the company.