Irish wrote: ↑Fri Jul 16, 2021 1:11 pm
max225 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 16, 2021 11:02 am
You do realize that
most died well before they are vaccinated. That death rate calc is completely incorrect.
In order to properly calc this you need to look at since full vaccination (say June 15th) how many with vaccine got breakthrough vs unvaccinated.
How many hospitalized vs unvaccinated. This data is NOT here yet, comparing that to a years worth of data of no one who was vaccinated and BEFORE DELTA is WRONG, it tells you nothing.
I did however post it from israel, where there are now more vaccinated people getting Covid than those who are unvaccinated.
This makes sense because most are vaccinated now... it also points to a grimmer picture that the vaccine efficacy against delta is insufficient without additional measures.
The cited death rate number of 733 was for fully vaccinated people......NOT people who died before they were vaccinated.
I'm not sure what you are saying here. I thought we were talking from a perspective of our behavior after being vaccinated. Breakthrough infection does not equal death or even hospitalization.
True, its early..... but I would be curious to see numbers on the death and hospitalization rate of breaktrough Delta Variant
Let me explain.
Most cases happened from March-2020>February 2021. 80% of the cases or so. Then another 2-4 week lag for deaths... So Obviously that happened to be the time frame when no one was vaccinated (63 MIL doses administered by Feb 21, data here
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracke ... ion-trends 336M doses admintisered as of now... 6X the rate ... so approximately 10% of the population was vaccinated by feb when most of the deaths were done).
So quoting a "death rate" from that time and comparing it from a time when 60% of the country was vaccinated with a nearly irradiated variant is false.
I am trying to point out not that the vaccines are infective period. Which is a FALSE statement. They are HIGHLY effective against everything prior to Delta as indicated by the evidence of decrease in cases and deaths commensurate with the increase in vaccinations.
However This is NEW news... Staring JUNE we're seeing incredibly high numbers of BREAKTHROUGH cases that avoid the vaccine. The side effects of which are still not KNOWN. It is improper to take the entire prior covid situation and devide it through the 2 weeks of breakthrough data. Because it is now a DIFFERENT COVID that does not respond well to vaccines.
My prediction and you can quote me on this later. It will NOT be a spike as bad as prior (Nov>FEB) however it will be significant enough and it will cause MANY hospitalizations and deaths at nearly the same rates as before but not to the same level.
Prior numbers
I.e if 1000 people get sick
10 people get hospitalized
2 people die
Current spike
500 people get sick
4 hospitalized
1 death
Let me know if the above example makes sense.