Kamry XSE impressions and further updates

[razr390]

Max, have you heard about our lord and savior the great State of Tennessee?

No thanks, but my best friend managed to have some luck, he is keeping his bay area pay... and buying a 280k brand new house in Austin, where his gf got a job with Ibm. I am legit it is a nice 2200 sq foot place... BRAND fking NEW.

I was going to suggest Austin. It is like the tech hub of Central USA. Almost all of the big tech players have some presence there.

[ChrisoftheNorth]

Some chicks like to work man. But if yours would like to stay at home, you can literally make it happen.

As to the second bolded, listen to yourself. "Pricing us out with every passing day?" Add these two together, and I'd GTFO.

OR.................Go buy the bitching house in Oaktown..........get married................live the DINK life until crotchfruit initiation, then plan how to GTFO. It's not like the value of those things is going to get sawed in half.

The sawed in half value part is incredibly worrisome. This can't be sustainable...

How can it possibly be sustainable? Once Chinese investment starts to dry up (if it hasn't already), and houses start to hit the market en masse, values will drop. Then once companies realize that you don't have to be there to run a successful tech business (Austin, Charlotte, even PITTSBURG is booming for tech), the high paying jobs will start to dry up. A while back I read a well-written piece that the pay area is following the same trend as Detroit, just super accelerated. Detroit was the pay area of the 1920-40's. Top 5 richest cities in the country, anyone could come here and make a great living, buy a big-ass house, and live the dream.

Then it all collapsed...and it didn't take much for it to happen. Some shifting in the economy and social unrest is all it took. We're heading down that path nationally already, it will happen to the pay area too...when is uncertain, but I certainly wouldn't even consider buying anything anywhere for $1.6M unless it's a cash transaction and you don't care. Now is the time to eliminate as much personal debt as possible to ride out the next incoming. Pay area will be hit the worst.

The thing is, you won the lottery. Just like Troy said, you have a place that's appreciating massively, cash out and simplify somewhere better. You can still make good money and live a ridiculous life when you don't have a mortgage payment in a nice area.

[Tar]

Not sure if it is worth comparing international markets, but here is a quick snap shot of our market to date:

Housing here dipped a bit but it is back up to the previous highs, example being:

Typical detached house in the GTA:

1990: $150k
2000: $300k
2007: $600k
2010: $850k
2015: $1.2M
2017: $1.0M
2019: $1.2M


Currency conversion cuts 25% off the top.

I feel like we have hit a ceiling and will likely stay that way until things get better or worse. I'm betting on worse for anything over $1M

I'm only interested in stuff in the 500k or below range, there is room for upward movement but the high priced stuff not so much.

[ChrisoftheNorth]

Not sure if it is worth comparing international markets, but here is a quick snap shot of our market to date:

Housing here dipped a bit but it is back up to the previous highs, example being:

Typical detached house in the GTA:

1990: $150k
2000: $300k
2007: $600k
2010: $850k
2015: $1.2M
2017: $1.0M
2019: $1.2M


Currency conversion cuts 25% off the top.

I feel like we have hit a ceiling and will likely stay that way until things get better or worse. I'm betting on worse for anything over $1M

I'm only interested in stuff in the 500k or below range, there is room for upward movement but the high priced stuff not so much.

How does the prices in Toronto compare to the rest of Canada? Montreal, Vancouver, Quebec City, etc? If it's on par with other populated metro areas, then it's probably not overheated.

What makes SF unique is how much more expensive it is than MANY other metro areas. SF, NY, Seattle (to an extent) are all pretty overheated when compared to other areas. Texas is cheap AF, so are cities in the SE and midwest areas. Chicago is a major city and you can get a nice house not far from the city without spending $1.6M

[Desertbreh]

The sawed in half value part is incredibly worrisome. This can't be sustainable...

How can it possibly be sustainable? Once Chinese investment starts to dry up (if it hasn't already), and houses start to hit the market en masse, values will drop. Then once companies realize that you don't have to be there to run a successful tech business (Austin, Charlotte, even PITTSBURG is booming for tech), the high paying jobs will start to dry up. A while back I read a well-written piece that the pay area is following the same trend as Detroit, just super accelerated. Detroit was the pay area of the 1920-40's. Top 5 richest cities in the country, anyone could come here and make a great living, buy a big-ass house, and live the dream.

Then it all collapsed...and it didn't take much for it to happen. Some shifting in the economy and social unrest is all it took. We're heading down that path nationally already, it will happen to the pay area too...when is uncertain, but I certainly wouldn't even consider buying anything anywhere for $1.6M unless it's a cash transaction and you don't care. Now is the time to eliminate as much personal debt as possible to ride out the next incoming. Pay area will be hit the worst.

The thing is, you won the lottery. Just like Troy said, you have a place that's appreciating massively, cash out and simplify somewhere better. You can still make good money and live a ridiculous life when you don't have a mortgage payment in a nice area.

+1. I mean, nobody's asking you to move to HOUSTON. But there has got to be someplace in between that is acceptable.

[Tar]

Not sure if it is worth comparing international markets, but here is a quick snap shot of our market to date:

Housing here dipped a bit but it is back up to the previous highs, example being:

Typical detached house in the GTA:

1990: $150k
2000: $300k
2007: $600k
2010: $850k
2015: $1.2M
2017: $1.0M
2019: $1.2M


Currency conversion cuts 25% off the top.

I feel like we have hit a ceiling and will likely stay that way until things get better or worse. I'm betting on worse for anything over $1M

I'm only interested in stuff in the 500k or below range, there is room for upward movement but the high priced stuff not so much.

How does the prices in Toronto compare to the rest of Canada? Montreal, Vancouver, Quebec City, etc? If it's on par with other populated metro areas, then it's probably not overheated.

What makes SF unique is how much more expensive it is than MANY other metro areas. SF, NY, Seattle (to an extent) are all pretty overheated when compared to other areas. Texas is cheap AF, so are cities in the SE and midwest areas. Chicago is a major city and you can get a nice house not far from the city without spending $1.6M

Vancouver is our SF, Toronto is our NY. Big cities like Toronto compare to surrounding cities like Mississauga, And things start to get cheaper the further out you go. A two hour 100 mile drive gets you real estate for 50%. Vancouver is way more, real estate is probably up 25%, lots of foreign buying, even gas prices are about that much higher.

Montreal is cheaper because it is in Quebec, but city pricing is at least 0.5M for a detached.

Windsor, Thunder Bay, Winnipeg, Edmonton are totally different markets, probably be buying a nice and/or newish house for $250k.

Grand Bend and surrounding seems to have homes floating around the 0.5M.

So I see a big spike in demand for anything around 0.5M or less because people can actually qualify for loans there. The demand for property is there, but who TF can afford a 1M loan?

[ChrisoftheNorth]

How does the prices in Toronto compare to the rest of Canada? Montreal, Vancouver, Quebec City, etc? If it's on par with other populated metro areas, then it's probably not overheated.

What makes SF unique is how much more expensive it is than MANY other metro areas. SF, NY, Seattle (to an extent) are all pretty overheated when compared to other areas. Texas is cheap AF, so are cities in the SE and midwest areas. Chicago is a major city and you can get a nice house not far from the city without spending $1.6M

Vancouver is our SF, Toronto is our NY. Big cities like Toronto compare to surrounding cities like Mississauga, And things start to get cheaper the further out you go. A two hour 100 mile drive gets you real estate for 50%. Vancouver is way more, real estate is probably up 25%, lots of foreign buying, even gas prices are about that much higher.

Montreal is cheaper because it is in Quebec, but city pricing is at least 0.5M for a detached.

Windsor, Thunder Bay, Winnipeg, Edmonton are totally different markets, probably be buying a nice and/or newish house for $250k.

Grand Bend and surrounding seems to have homes floating around the 0.5M.

So I see a big spike in demand for anything around 0.5M or less because people can actually qualify for loans there. The demand for property is there, but who TF can afford a 1M loan?

Interesting. Very similar to the US then.

I just don't see how these places with exponentially higher housing costs than surrounding areas are sustainable. They'll be really susceptible to economic shifts, especially global ones, and all indicators are pointing to a global downturn being an eventuality. Investing now at what has to be near the peak in any of these areas just seems like way too much risk with minimal reward to me.

Household debt (student loans, cars, whatever) is growing so fast that once the job market shifts, people will stop the housing madness and either move to somewhere they can afford or stay/get back into the rental game. These hot markets stand to lose the most.

I'm bracing for in Detroit even. This place is so screwed...again.

[Tar]

Vancouver is our SF, Toronto is our NY. Big cities like Toronto compare to surrounding cities like Mississauga, And things start to get cheaper the further out you go. A two hour 100 mile drive gets you real estate for 50%. Vancouver is way more, real estate is probably up 25%, lots of foreign buying, even gas prices are about that much higher.

Montreal is cheaper because it is in Quebec, but city pricing is at least 0.5M for a detached.

Windsor, Thunder Bay, Winnipeg, Edmonton are totally different markets, probably be buying a nice and/or newish house for $250k.

Grand Bend and surrounding seems to have homes floating around the 0.5M.

So I see a big spike in demand for anything around 0.5M or less because people can actually qualify for loans there. The demand for property is there, but who TF can afford a 1M loan?

Interesting. Very similar to the US then.

I just don't see how these places with exponentially higher housing costs than surrounding areas are sustainable. They'll be really susceptible to economic shifts, especially global ones, and all indicators are pointing to a global downturn being an eventuality. Investing now at what has to be near the peak in any of these areas just seems like way too much risk with minimal reward to me.

Household debt (student loans, cars, whatever) is growing so fast that once the job market shifts, people will stop the housing madness and either move to somewhere they can afford or stay/get back into the rental game. These hot markets stand to lose the most.

I'm bracing for in Detroit even. This place is so screwed...again.

pricing is being capped by the availability of loans at this point, the first thing banks will do is cut back available credit at the hint of any trouble brewing which scares me.

I can see prices staying sideways for a while if things stay good (like for 10 yrs even), but don't see them going up any sooner then that. Like how, where is the new money coming from??

Long term, the currency devaluation game will continue on forever so house prices will go up, assuming the buyers are there.

Oh the other thing on my mind is that we don't actually have real financial accounting at the global banking and government levels, that shit is all to me. If there was any real accounting process we would all be bankrupt by now.

[max225]

How can it possibly be sustainable? Once Chinese investment starts to dry up (if it hasn't already), and houses start to hit the market en masse, values will drop. Then once companies realize that you don't have to be there to run a successful tech business (Austin, Charlotte, even PITTSBURG is booming for tech), the high paying jobs will start to dry up. A while back I read a well-written piece that the pay area is following the same trend as Detroit, just super accelerated. Detroit was the pay area of the 1920-40's. Top 5 richest cities in the country, anyone could come here and make a great living, buy a big-ass house, and live the dream.

Then it all collapsed...and it didn't take much for it to happen. Some shifting in the economy and social unrest is all it took. We're heading down that path nationally already, it will happen to the pay area too...when is uncertain, but I certainly wouldn't even consider buying anything anywhere for $1.6M unless it's a cash transaction and you don't care. Now is the time to eliminate as much personal debt as possible to ride out the next incoming. Pay area will be hit the worst.

The thing is, you won the lottery. Just like Troy said, you have a place that's appreciating massively, cash out and simplify somewhere better. You can still make good money and live a ridiculous life when you don't have a mortgage payment in a nice area.

+1. I mean, nobody's asking you to move to HOUSTON. But there has got to be someplace in between that is acceptable.

Anything decent is close to or at 1M. Unless you're willing to compromise in terms of being away from the coasts and getting much worse paying jobs. That said, pay is high/real estate is high, nothing new here.

[max225]

Not sure if it is worth comparing international markets, but here is a quick snap shot of our market to date:

Housing here dipped a bit but it is back up to the previous highs, example being:

Typical detached house in the GTA:

1990: $150k
2000: $300k
2007: $600k
2010: $850k
2015: $1.2M
2017: $1.0M
2019: $1.2M


Currency conversion cuts 25% off the top.

I feel like we have hit a ceiling and will likely stay that way until things get better or worse. I'm betting on worse for anything over $1M

I'm only interested in stuff in the 500k or below range, there is room for upward movement but the high priced stuff not so much.

Seems not bad... I have traveled a fair amount and looked at real estate abroad as well..

Moscow 1M for something decent (upper middle class)
Sydney ~1-1.5
Melbourne 1-1.5
London 1.5
New York 1.5
Seattle 1M
Portland ~800k
Austin Proper 800k
Hong Kong is at 1.5-2
SF is at 1.5
San Diego 1
LA 1
Denver 800k

I think that's just where inflation took the global real estate. 1M is not "a lot" anymore that's just what it takes. but such is life.

[ChrisoftheNorth]

Damn. So if you can't afford $1M, just kill yourself.

Noted.

[max225]

Damn. So if you can't afford $1M, just kill yourself.

Noted.

Who said that? I am just saying major metropolitan areas cost a lot of money in any place. There are no "lifehacks" to somehow get a "deal" there is always a compromise. I am sure Fargo is still cheap as are 90% of other cities that are away from the coasts or areas where the economy is rapidly expanding.

[ChrisoftheNorth]

Damn. So if you can't afford $1M, just kill yourself.

Noted.

Who said that? I am just saying major metropolitan areas cost a lot of money in any place. There are no "lifehacks" to somehow get a "deal" there is always a compromise. I am sure Fargo is still cheap as are 90% of other cities that are away from the coasts or areas where the economy is rapidly expanding.

You're saying that the only option is $1M+ in major metro areas. Why is that the only option? There's tons of areas with excellent economic expansion that can offer outstanding quality of life with solid pay and cheap housing. Make a lot of money and pay a lot for housing or make decent money and pay a little for housing. It nets out the same.

BUT you have the rare opportunity to cash out and live a nice easy simple life somewhere great. The relentless drive for MORE AND MORE AND MORE is clouding that, and if that's what you want out of life, than good for you, but shut the fuck up already with the hand wringing over vehicular spending. $60k is a drop in the bucket compared to $1.6M.

[Desertbreh]

+1. I mean, nobody's asking you to move to HOUSTON. But there has got to be someplace in between that is acceptable.

Anything decent is close to or at 1M. Unless you're willing to compromise in terms of being away from the coasts and getting much worse paying jobs. That said, pay is high/real estate is high, nothing new here.

Right but that leaves you a $4K/month nut, which is high but doable for upwardly mobile DINKS like yourself and the AZN Persuasion. 8K/month in MORTGAGE? Come on man, that means total household expenses are like $10K............$120K/year so you have to make $180K........ONE HUNDRED AND EIGHTY FUCKING THOUSAND DOLLARS..........to not get tossed out on the street. Its doable but it's not a great idea.

[Tar]

So the only real argument is whether or not the house prices have evened out with Pay area incomes as a whole? Can people afford to pick up houses worth 2M? 2.5M?

If not then maybe the cap is reached and the cheaper properties are the ones which will benefit most moving forward (based on what we are seeing here). I'd consider an up and coming area that is slowly pushing out the transients/mahtroyz.

[max225]

Who said that? I am just saying major metropolitan areas cost a lot of money in any place. There are no "lifehacks" to somehow get a "deal" there is always a compromise. I am sure Fargo is still cheap as are 90% of other cities that are away from the coasts or areas where the economy is rapidly expanding.

You're saying that the only option is $1M+ in major metro areas. Why is that the only option? There's tons of areas with excellent economic expansion that can offer outstanding quality of life with solid pay and cheap housing. Make a lot of money and pay a lot for housing or make decent money and pay a little for housing. It nets out the same.

BUT you have the rare opportunity to cash out and live a nice easy simple life somewhere great. The relentless drive for MORE AND MORE AND MORE is clouding that, and if that's what you want out of life, than good for you, but shut the fuck up already with the hand wringing over vehicular spending. $60k is a drop in the bucket compared to $1.6M.

Money is money. Does this mean I am supposed to go to McDonalds and spend $1000 on burger because I have $100 0 in the bank?
60k is a lot of money. It could sustain me for 2-3 years if shit hits the fan.

This isn't about a drive in MORE AND MORE AND MORE. But literally changing my entire life to get a house somewhere else for "cheap" is a huge undertaking. Obviously there will be upsides and downsides. I would have to start from scratch, get new friends, move away from family, tear my fiance from her family as well. Restart 2 different careers that we have built over a decade. Like you're talking about it as if the whole sitch is as simple as flipping a light switch.

We're not just sitting around here being blessed my Mark Zuckenberg and crew who stuffs our pockets with CASH, looking all teary eyed and happy because "everyone is rich". There are plenty of poor people in this area, sustaining a competitive life is incredibly stressful here, as I am sure it is elsewhere.

I have moved countries 2x and that shit was no fun. Dropping everything to get a 300k house somewhere seems fking retarded at the moment, but It is something I am exploring to make sure I am not endlessly slaving away for nothing here. It isn't easy being in the bay and this type of shit isn't "luck" there is a lot of hard work that goes into all of it.

The whole housing conversation started when the another BMW lease came up, as I stated, it doesn't seem to fit into my life at the moment as I'm possibly getting another residence, and this type of money outlay would be impactful as my mortgage may be going up significantly.

[ChrisoftheNorth]

You're saying that the only option is $1M+ in major metro areas. Why is that the only option? There's tons of areas with excellent economic expansion that can offer outstanding quality of life with solid pay and cheap housing. Make a lot of money and pay a lot for housing or make decent money and pay a little for housing. It nets out the same.

BUT you have the rare opportunity to cash out and live a nice easy simple life somewhere great. The relentless drive for MORE AND MORE AND MORE is clouding that, and if that's what you want out of life, than good for you, but shut the fuck up already with the hand wringing over vehicular spending. $60k is a drop in the bucket compared to $1.6M.

Money is money. Does this mean I am supposed to go to McDonalds and spend $1000 on burger because I have $100 0 in the bank?
60k is a lot of money. It could sustain me for 2-3 years if shit hits the fan.

This isn't about a drive in MORE AND MORE AND MORE. But literally changing my entire life to get a house somewhere else for "cheap" is a huge undertaking. Obviously there will be upsides and downsides. I would have to start from scratch, get new friends, move away from family, tear my fiance from her family as well. Like you're talking about it as if the whole sitch is as simple as flipping a light switch.

I have moved countries 2x and that shit was no fun. Dropping everything to get a 300k house somewhere seems fking retarded at the moment, but It is something I am exploring to make sure I am not endlessly slaving away for nothing here. It isn't easy being in the bay and this type of shit isn't "luck" there is a lot of hard work that goes into all of it.

The whole housing conversation started when the another BMW lease came up, as I stated, it doesn't seem to fit into my life at the moment as I'm possibly getting another residence, and this type of money outlay would be impactful as my mortgage may be going up significantly.

Absolutely! How is it worth it all? That's what you really need to think hard about. Piling on with more debt like Desert laid out isn't going to help anything. Seems like it'll just create more stress...for what?

[ChrisoftheNorth]

Anything decent is close to or at 1M. Unless you're willing to compromise in terms of being away from the coasts and getting much worse paying jobs. That said, pay is high/real estate is high, nothing new here.

Right but that leaves you a $4K/month nut, which is high but doable for upwardly mobile DINKS like yourself and the AZN Persuasion. 8K/month in MORTGAGE? Come on man, that means total household expenses are like $10K............$120K/year so you have to make $180K........ONE HUNDRED AND EIGHTY FUCKING THOUSAND DOLLARS..........to not get tossed out on the street. Its doable but it's not a great idea.

Insanity IMO.

[max225]

Money is money. Does this mean I am supposed to go to McDonalds and spend $1000 on burger because I have $100 0 in the bank?
60k is a lot of money. It could sustain me for 2-3 years if shit hits the fan.

This isn't about a drive in MORE AND MORE AND MORE. But literally changing my entire life to get a house somewhere else for "cheap" is a huge undertaking. Obviously there will be upsides and downsides. I would have to start from scratch, get new friends, move away from family, tear my fiance from her family as well. Like you're talking about it as if the whole sitch is as simple as flipping a light switch.

I have moved countries 2x and that shit was no fun. Dropping everything to get a 300k house somewhere seems fking retarded at the moment, but It is something I am exploring to make sure I am not endlessly slaving away for nothing here. It isn't easy being in the bay and this type of shit isn't "luck" there is a lot of hard work that goes into all of it.

The whole housing conversation started when the another BMW lease came up, as I stated, it doesn't seem to fit into my life at the moment as I'm possibly getting another residence, and this type of money outlay would be impactful as my mortgage may be going up significantly.

Absolutely! How is it worth it all? That's what you really need to think hard about. Piling on with more debt like Desert laid out isn't going to help anything. Seems like it'll just create more stress...for what?

I think I mentioned about 4 times now that I really don't like where I live... so yes a lot of options are still on the table but they are not easy decisions. Getting a nicer place seems like a decent decision but I am obviously quite weary of the macro economic conditions at this moment.

[ChrisoftheNorth]

Absolutely! How is it worth it all? That's what you really need to think hard about. Piling on with more debt like Desert laid out isn't going to help anything. Seems like it'll just create more stress...for what?

I think I mentioned about 4 times now that I really don't like where I live... so yes a lot of options are still on the table but they are not easy decisions. Getting a nicer place seems like a decent decision but I am obviously quite weary of the macro economic conditions at this moment.

You have. Digging in deeper when you're not 100% sold on a place isn't a path to long term happiness. We're just trying to help be a voice of reason bro.

[max225]

So the only real argument is whether or not the house prices have evened out with Pay area incomes as a whole? Can people afford to pick up houses worth 2M? 2.5M?

If not then maybe the cap is reached and the cheaper properties are the ones which will benefit most moving forward (based on what we are seeing here). I'd consider an up and coming area that is slowly pushing out the transients/mahtroyz.

Bay Area has some really terrible hoods and plenty of terrible people... The issue with shit areas are, the second the economy drops, they lose way more value than the higher priced units. I have learned that lesson the hard way. My house yo-yo'ed like crazy during the recession.

It depends on what "people" you speak of. I'd say most "normal"(College educated, 5-10 years work experience, working in top 50 companies) people here can "afford" 700-1.2M anything above that is luck status, you'd have to be some kind of exec or had some luck during an IPO. But there are a lot of people like that here.

[max225]

I think I mentioned about 4 times now that I really don't like where I live... so yes a lot of options are still on the table but they are not easy decisions. Getting a nicer place seems like a decent decision but I am obviously quite weary of the macro economic conditions at this moment.

You have. Digging in deeper when you're not 100% sold on a place isn't a path to long term happiness. We're just trying to help be a voice of reason bro.

Bears an existential question then... staying in a place for sake of not paying more to save money is the right move when you don't like said place? What's the end game?

[Desertbreh]

We just want you to have a happy life dude.

[max225]

We just want you to have a happy life dude.

So what's the answer broski. We got the pay to buy a house that we both like in this area.... What SHOULD WE DO?

[Apex]