DFD

I liked to bump the old thread, so we'll bring it back.


This election has got the markets in a panic along with the likely rate hike. I'm betting heavily on a clinton win with a massive leveraged position, holdings as of this morning are

SWHC
GS
BABA
BIDU
3% cash

weighted in that order and with the majority of my money in SWHC and GS. My thinking is that smith and wesson is undervalued right now and will benefit from increased gun sales if clinton wins. Goldman like most banks is fairly undervalued as well and will benefit from a rate hike not to mention their execs are major clinton contributors. Otherwise the China growth play is a toss up but at least its internation exposure through the election and it has organic growth potential.

For those of you who invest or trade, what are you doing coming into the election, and does anyone have suggestions of tickers that would respond well to a trump win? Or is cash the only safe bet? Is the USD going to take a hit if he wins?

[user not found] wrote:I am discounting possibility of a Trump win but also think if it occurs it will be an across the board smack. Markets will react the same way they did in the UK to Brexit, initial smack, level out and stabilization as he announces his cabinet and takes more normal positions.

For your short term purpose, bonds.

Sent from and

[user not found] wrote:I am discounting possibility of a Trump win but also think if it occurs it will be an across the board smack. Markets will react the same way they did in the UK to Brexit, initial smack, level out and stabilization as he announces his cabinet and takes more normal positions.

For your short term purpose, bonds.

Sent from and

US T bills? 5yr 20yr?

[user not found] wrote:

gravey wrote:

US T bills? 5yr 20yr?

I don't have a good answer since you and I invest differently. The Saudi stuff is interesting.

Sent from and

Fair enough, and hmm, I'll look into it then. I was holding a leveraged bear position on US 20yr in anticipation of the rate hike, maybe I'll just (hold) the long side of that trade. Not looking to hedge since I don't really believe in that. I'll just have stop loss orders on my major holdings in case it drops and then buy in as quick as I can premarket on wednesday morning if it goes to hell.

Most of my investments turned out to be anyway. I'm up like 3-5% doe so I guess it's not all bad.

Johnny_P wrote:Most of my investments turned out to be anyway. I'm up like 3-5% doe so I guess it's not all bad.

Hell yea, better than not. My sister tries to follow some of my advice but doesn't listen when I tell her to sell. I'm up 20% but she's down 10%. Then again my 20% is probably less than most DFDers make in a week.

[user not found] wrote:I am discounting possibility of a Trump win but also think if it occurs it will be an across the board smack. Markets will react the same way they did in the UK to Brexit, initial smack, level out and stabilization as he announces his cabinet and takes more normal positions.

For your short term purpose, bondage.

Sent from and

uhh, this is an investment thread?

Hansgustaf wrote:

[user not found] wrote:I am discounting possibility of a Trump win but also think if it occurs it will be an across the board smack. Markets will react the same way they did in the UK to Brexit, initial smack, level out and stabilization as he announces his cabinet and takes more normal positions.

For your short term purpose, bondage.

Sent from and

uhh, this is an investment thread?

Nah its a daytrading thread, I just label it an investing thread to not have to flame suit up everytime I post

[user not found] wrote:

gravey wrote:
Nah its a daytrading thread, I just label it an investing thread to not have to flame suit up everytime I post

Aka a gambling thread.

Sent from and

I have hefty GE stock from my wife's grandfather who worked for them for 40+ years.

[user not found] wrote:

gravey wrote:
Nah its a daytrading thread, I just label it an investing thread to not have to flame suit up everytime I post

Aka a gambling thread.

Sent from and

Ehh, yes and no. But 90% of my positions are gambles.

Well I started thinking I could use some more risk so I ditched BABA and BIDU in favor of some leveraged short action on the gold miners fund. Should play nice on a HRC win and rate hike.

gonna catch some gravey in the eye tonight

Question for you guys that might be better at money than me.

I have some money I had an the NC retirement system from a previous job. I took it out of there and opened a Vanguard IRA where it now sits in a settlement fund (zero risk, 3.5% interest).

I am going to move it to a 2060 target fund, my question is, should I do this today or wait a few days for a short term crash due to this Trump shit? Does it matter?

I might buy some GM today.

[user not found] wrote:

D Griff wrote:Question for you guys that might be better at money than me.

I have some money I had an the NC retirement system from a previous job. I took it out of there and opened a Vanguard IRA where it now sits in a settlement fund (zero risk, 3.5% interest).

I am going to move it to a 2060 target fund, my question is, should I do this today or wait a few days for a short term crash due to this Trump shit? Does it matter?

Over the long term it doesn't matter. You'll get a marginal deal by doing it today.

I, personally, would do it today but we are talking minimal difference over the long haul.

That's exactly what I thought, thanks for the confirmation. I bought the fund. Hopefully my future kids get an extra $50 one day

[user not found] wrote:

Detroit wrote:I might buy some GM today.

I worry about free trade doe

So will many.

Luckily, other than NAFTA, the industry is relatively domestic-focused...GM in particular. GM has been posting phenomenal financials quarter after quarter with 5% returns as dividends. And I'm confident that performance will continue despite a downturn. It's a great stock to hold, and today should be one of the cheapest days to get in.

Detroit wrote:

[user not found] wrote: I worry about free trade doe

So will many.

Luckily, other than NAFTA, the industry is relatively domestic-focused...GM in particular. GM has been posting phenomenal financials quarter after quarter with 5% returns as dividends. And I'm confident that performance will continue despite a downturn. It's a great stock to hold, and today should be one of the cheapest days to get in.

I'll have to watch it, I just remember trying to buy BCS on the first day of the brexit crash and watching it drop another 20% on monday after I put all of my money in it. I'll look for a bottom on GM

Needless to say I fucked myself really hard on this one. Heres to hoping my recentlybacquired NUGT position gets me back to 25%

gravey wrote:

Detroit wrote: So will many.

Luckily, other than NAFTA, the industry is relatively domestic-focused...GM in particular. GM has been posting phenomenal financials quarter after quarter with 5% returns as dividends. And I'm confident that performance will continue despite a downturn. It's a great stock to hold, and today should be one of the cheapest days to get in.

I'll have to watch it, I just remember trying to buy BCS on the first day of the brexit crash and watching it drop another 20% on monday after I put all of my money in it. I'll look for a bottom on GM

If GM get much below $29, it's a buy IMO.

But as I said, GM is a stock you want to go long on. If you're not prepared for that, don't buy.

Detroit wrote:

gravey wrote:
I'll have to watch it, I just remember trying to buy BCS on the first day of the brexit crash and watching it drop another 20% on monday after I put all of my money in it. I'll look for a bottom on GM

If GM get much below $29, it's a buy IMO.

But as I said, GM is a stock you want to go long on. If you're not prepared for that, don't buy.

I agree, I'd have to see it lower than that to trade it. Like you said, its a long play, and right now I'm focusing on shorts since I don't feel confident in any specific sector enough yet to go long

Already got gm and Ford here. Not doing too well today.

[user not found] wrote:Market has stabilized already. Waiver in January will occur again.

I was shocked at the market today. We'll have to see what happens at the closing bell, but not what I expected.

rockchops wrote:Already got gm and Ford here. Not doing too well today.

is exactly how I feel right now. Erased a 26% gain overnight. This kids is why you don't daytrade.

[user not found] wrote:

Apex wrote: I was shocked at the market today. We'll have to see what happens at the closing bell, but not what I expected.

Both his acceptance and get concession speech helped a ton.

Last night's reaction was to uncertainty.

I'll have to find the transcript of the acceptance speech. I'm curious to see what was said.

Apex wrote:

[user not found] wrote: Both his acceptance and get concession speech helped a ton.

Last night's reaction was to uncertainty.

I'll have to find the transcript of the acceptance speech. I'm curious to see what was said.

This'th

Well, I damn near lost everything yesterday, probably going to take some time off from trading, but I poured most of what I have left into SWHC because I fundamentally believe they're fair value is above $30 a share disregard whos in office. Avg cost down to $24.76 after selling most at open yesterday and buying in this morning. Not really sure what else to hold longer term, still trying to make sense of the wreckage after having the financial equivalent of a flash grenade go off in my face.