General Economic chit chat/updates.

[Johnny_P]

Sell house for max profit. Live in a cardboard box under a railroad bridge filthy rich. Winning at life.

Not going back to rental if I can help it, brah. Moving blows as does dealing with landlords.

[Desertbreh]

I have no idea how student loan "forgiveness" can be equitably applied in a fashion that does not screw a lot of people, (not including Joe Taxpayer). As a guy who paid off 75 grand in student loans and is paying for my kid to go to college it is absolutely a political third rail for me. If you entered into a contract to repay something, then you should repay it, period. If it looks like it's too expensive and you won't be able to repay it, then you should stop right there, head down to Wal Mart and sign up to be a long haul trucker, free training and a six digit salary TO START. /bread.

[D Griff]

I have no idea how student loan "forgiveness" can be equitably applied in a fashion that does not screw a lot of people, (not including Joe Taxpayer). As a guy who paid off 75 grand in student loans and is paying for my kid to go to college it is absolutely a political third rail for me. If you entered into a contract to repay something, then you should repay it, period. If it looks like it's too expensive and you won't be able to repay it, then you should stop right there, head down to Wal Mart and sign up to be a long haul trucker, free training and a six digit salary TO START. /bread.

We still need to add more practical education, including financial, to high school curriculum. Many aren’t lucky enough to have any kind of practical parenting happening at home.

[D Griff]

I’m also totally fine with my tax dollars going to help an 18 year old learn how to be an electrician, carpenter, or something else practical at community college that can be learned fairly quickly and efficiently.

[wap]

I’m also totally fine with my tax dollars going to help an 18 year old learn how to be an electrician, carpenter, or something else practical at community college that can be learned fairly quickly and efficiently.

I'd love to see community-type colleges set up that just teach the trades, along with requirements such as basic accounting, marketing/writing/communication (basically businessy-type stuff), etc, that would help the student to set up and run their own small business. And I'd gladly have that be "free" just like regular K-12 education. The benefits to society would make it totally worth it, IMO.

[max225]

Sell house for max profit. Live in a cardboard box under a railroad bridge filthy rich. Winning at life.

Not going back to rental if I can help it, brah. Moving blows as does dealing with landlords.

the point is to cash out and rent until prices come down and roll right back. I’ll keep updating this thread we shall see if my prediction is

There is NOTHING great about owning a house. Renting is superior other than missing out on re gains which are done.

[max225]

I have no idea how student loan "forgiveness" can be equitably applied in a fashion that does not screw a lot of people, (not including Joe Taxpayer). As a guy who paid off 75 grand in student loans and is paying for my kid to go to college it is absolutely a political third rail for me. If you entered into a contract to repay something, then you should repay it, period. If it looks like it's too expensive and you won't be able to repay it, then you should stop right there, head down to Wal Mart and sign up to be a long haul trucker, free training and a six digit salary TO START. /bread.

Y’all are distracted. ppp audits need to happen. 10k is a joke compared the fraud that happened there. This at least goes to help whoever actually took the time to learn and not roll in a Bentley on your dime

[max225]

Ok... I'll address this.
*Pay in my area is WAY down... yes its highest in the country... but given the stock market moves in the last 9 months most have lost 30-40% of income
**Interest rates have driven the average payment up 40%
***average house price up 40%
**** average house payment from 2020 to 2022 has gone UP 100% with the above two compounding issues. My literal house is 12k a month to own... and its a POS from 1974... granted in a really nice town. I don't see WHO CAN AFFORD SUCH INSANITY.
*****our taxes are insane on higher income folks.. so even if you make say 300k 60% will go to taxes and the general COL is just non sustainable. This is the same everywhere really at the moment, and why I am so concerned about a correction

These are headwinds everywhere. I don't really see what's unique in your area that will be worse than others, other than a 20% drop on $1M is worse than $500k.

In fact, I'd still argue that your area is more sustainable than others. There's absolutely zero reason that houses should start at 500k where I am. There's no jobs, the weather is shit 6mos of the year, local business are still decimated by "employment shortages" so you can't really shop or go out whenever you want, there's zero logical reason for my area to be so expensive. This happened all over the country. I was shocked to look at zillow in some of the truly nowhere places we drove through Nebraska, South Dakota, Minnesota, etc last week to find houses starting around $300k for crapboxes. These areas are gonna TANK because there's no fundamental reason for the prices to be so high.

You don't have those problems. Kind of like the car market where buying cars with traditionally high resale value makes the most sense right now to mitigate exposure to value crash risk. Your area has always been in high demand with high house values, and that didn't change in the last few years, so probably never will.

What unique is I’m in an area where profitable companies aren’t a thing … 75% of corps are cash flow negative here running on hopes and dreams. Coupled with epic fiscal tightening that’s a recipe for some major implosion.


There is nothing wrong with the rest of what you said but I’m really starting to feel like 2008 all over again. There are just way too many red flags.

[razr390]

Sell house for max profit. Live in a cardboard box under a railroad bridge filthy rich. Winning at life.

Not going back to rental if I can help it, brah. Moving blows as does dealing with landlords.

the point is to cash out and rent until prices come down and roll right back. I’ll keep updating this thread we shall see if my prediction is

There is NOTHING great about owning a house. Renting is superior other than missing out on re gains which are done.

We are renting a house right now and seem to be aligning with the view that renting until we “settle down” might be the best move especially in this market. Dealing with a huge down payment, HOA’s, prop taxes, remodeling/repairs/renovations is not sexy to us at this point in our lives.

We don’t even know whether we are gonna be in San Antonio for the long haul.

[Desertbreh]

Sell house for max profit. Live in a cardboard box under a railroad bridge filthy rich. Winning at life.

Not going back to rental if I can help it, brah. Moving blows as does dealing with landlords.

the point is to cash out and rent until prices come down and roll right back. I’ll keep updating this thread we shall see if my prediction is

There is NOTHING great about owning a house. Renting is superior other than missing out on re gains which are done.

Yeah dude you are clearly not a man

[Desertbreh]

I have no idea how student loan "forgiveness" can be equitably applied in a fashion that does not screw a lot of people, (not including Joe Taxpayer). As a guy who paid off 75 grand in student loans and is paying for my kid to go to college it is absolutely a political third rail for me. If you entered into a contract to repay something, then you should repay it, period. If it looks like it's too expensive and you won't be able to repay it, then you should stop right there, head down to Wal Mart and sign up to be a long haul trucker, free training and a six digit salary TO START. /bread.

Y’all are distracted. ppp audits need to happen. 10k is a joke compared the fraud that happened there. This at least goes to help whoever actually took the time to learn and not roll in a Bentley on your dime

Can't disagree with that.

[CaleDeRoo]

Can I go sign up for college and get this bread?

[max225]

Can I go sign up for college and get this bread?

Yea you go to a college then end up being a failure needing a hand out.

Literally about this college loan shit. Most people who have loans have 6 figures or close to it … this is a spit in the bucket.

[ChrisoftheNorth]

the point is to cash out and rent until prices come down and roll right back. I’ll keep updating this thread we shall see if my prediction is

There is NOTHING great about owning a house. Renting is superior other than missing out on re gains which are done.

We are renting a house right now and seem to be aligning with the view that renting until we “settle down” might be the best move especially in this market. Dealing with a huge down payment, HOA’s, prop taxes, remodeling/repairs/renovations is not sexy to us at this point in our lives.

We don’t even know whether we are gonna be in San Antonio for the long haul.

You guys should be in zero rush to buy. IIRC, you've got a great place for a solid price, and that's a good thing to ride out what's coming. Especially as your family figures out what/where works best, just keep doing what you're doing.

[ChrisoftheNorth]

These are headwinds everywhere. I don't really see what's unique in your area that will be worse than others, other than a 20% drop on $1M is worse than $500k.

In fact, I'd still argue that your area is more sustainable than others. There's absolutely zero reason that houses should start at 500k where I am. There's no jobs, the weather is shit 6mos of the year, local business are still decimated by "employment shortages" so you can't really shop or go out whenever you want, there's zero logical reason for my area to be so expensive. This happened all over the country. I was shocked to look at zillow in some of the truly nowhere places we drove through Nebraska, South Dakota, Minnesota, etc last week to find houses starting around $300k for crapboxes. These areas are gonna TANK because there's no fundamental reason for the prices to be so high.

You don't have those problems. Kind of like the car market where buying cars with traditionally high resale value makes the most sense right now to mitigate exposure to value crash risk. Your area has always been in high demand with high house values, and that didn't change in the last few years, so probably never will.

What unique is I’m in an area where profitable companies aren’t a thing … 75% of corps are cash flow negative here running on hopes and dreams. Coupled with epic fiscal tightening that’s a recipe for some major implosion.


There is nothing wrong with the rest of what you said but I’m really starting to feel like 2008 all over again. There are just way too many red flags.

Oh, interesting. It's been over a decade since tech companies needed to actually make money to be successful, and the grow or die mindset might finally be done if things don't just keep growing forever with infinite demand.

Still, I think we're a far way off from 08.

[Tar]

08 had unbridled real estate paper USA side. The downturn hit us too but we had appropriate banking policy and didn't see much of a real estate downturn. About same as what just happened now and then it stayed level for 2-3 yrs before it started climbing again.

[golftdibrad1]

I have no idea how student loan "forgiveness" can be equitably applied in a fashion that does not screw a lot of people, (not including Joe Taxpayer). As a guy who paid off 75 grand in student loans and is paying for my kid to go to college it is absolutely a political third rail for me. If you entered into a contract to repay something, then you should repay it, period. If it looks like it's too expensive and you won't be able to repay it, then you should stop right there, head down to Wal Mart and sign up to be a long haul trucker, free training and a six digit salary TO START. /bread.

IDK if i addressed my feels on this on the board, but basically i could get behind some forgiveness if they did something to fix the underlying issues with rising costs.

They did not.

We still need to add more practical education, including financial, to high school curriculum. Many aren’t lucky enough to have any kind of practical parenting happening at home.

We have an overtraining epidemic in this country, especially in the white collar world.

[golftdibrad1]

Q - What did the Germans use to light their homes before candles?
A - Electricity

ALT: Inelastic demand, a pictorial.

ALT ALT: At least they can use the decay heat from the shut down nuclear plants for warmth, right?

ALT ALT ALT: I sure hope the germans are good at building fires (pun intended)

[Tar]

Q - What did the Germans use to light their homes before candles?
A - Electricity

ALT: Inelastic demand, a pictorial.

ALT ALT: At least they can use the decay heat from the shut down nuclear plants for warmth, right?

ALT ALT ALT: I sure hope the germans are good at building fires (pun intended)

They have wind mills and solar panels, it'll be fine.

[golftdibrad1]

Q - What did the Germans use to light their homes before candles?
A - Electricity

ALT: Inelastic demand, a pictorial.

ALT ALT: At least they can use the decay heat from the shut down nuclear plants for warmth, right?

ALT ALT ALT: I sure hope the germans are good at building fires (pun intended)

They have wind mills and solar panels, it'll be fine.

[max225]

Whats a german power base? and

[Tar]

Y'all see Britain's energy debacle??

https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/how-na ... approaches

£10k electricity bills to small restaurant owners causing instant closures! The Russia embargo is going to crush Europe at this rate.

[golftdibrad1]

Whats a german power base? and

wholesale electricity futures. Like oil futures for electrons.

Y'all see Britain's energy debacle??

https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/how-na ... approaches

£10k electricity bills to small restaurant owners causing instant closures! The Russia embargo is going to crush Europe at this rate.

Same fundamental issue I posted above. Winter is going to be VERY interesting for europe.

[Johnny_P]

Whats a german power base? and

wholesale electricity futures. Like oil futures for electrons.

Y'all see Britain's energy debacle??

https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/how-na ... approaches

£10k electricity bills to small restaurant owners causing instant closures! The Russia embargo is going to crush Europe at this rate.

Same fundamental issue I posted above. Winter is going to be VERY interesting for europe.

Natural gas moves a lot of energy very efficiently. Gotta make up those BTUs somehow. Going to be interesting for sure.

[golftdibrad1]

Winter is going to be VERY interesting for europe.

Natural gas moves a lot of energy very efficiently. Gotta make up those BTUs somehow. Going to be interesting for sure.

yup. and when you shut off your baseload coal and nuclear (in germany's case) and use NG as the stopgap for electrical power...assuming its just always going to come through the Russian pipe... and mandate heat pumps.... you are still at a ~25% loss in thermal efficiency before transmission losses vs just burning the NG for heat. (NB: combustion as a heat source is nearly 100% efficient, the best combined cycle NG plants are like 50%) Its like they've shot themselves in the foot 3 times.