DFD

Dat silent majority is confident in the 80 month financing ... incentives up 13% yoy

Vw up 25% as predicted with the turn ins ...

[user not found] wrote:My outlook is grim.

You guys didn't do well ?

maxtdi wrote:

Dat silent majority is confident in the 80 month financing ... incentives up 13% yoy

Vw up 25% as predicted with the turn ins ...

If it weren't for this, sales would have tanked. We're beyond natural demand at this point, reiterating why now is the best time ever to lease a new vehicle.

My hope is the industry will wise up and let sales fall to natural in January with lower spending. We'll see...

Detroit wrote:

maxtdi wrote:

Dat silent majority is confident in the 80 month financing ... incentives up 13% yoy

Vw up 25% as predicted with the turn ins ...

If it weren't for this, sales would have tanked. We're beyond natural demand at this point, reiterating why now is the best time ever to lease a new vehicle.

My hope is the industry will wise up and let sales fall to natural in January with lower spending. We'll see...

You work for a big 3 auto entity and expect them to encourage a 'natural' state of sales, ie, a rational decline??? You are brave LOL Can I remind you of what drives their agenda =

Davestr wrote:

Detroit wrote: If it weren't for this, sales would have tanked. We're beyond natural demand at this point, reiterating why now is the best time ever to lease a new vehicle.

My hope is the industry will wise up and let sales fall to natural in January with lower spending. We'll see...

You work for a big 3 auto entity and expect them to encourage a 'natural' state of sales, ie, a rational decline??? You are brave LOL Can I remind you of what drives their agenda =

Right, profit. Over producing and throwing piles of cash on the hood does not equal profit. I actually have some faith that my company is smarter than the rest, but we'll see...

Detroit wrote:

Davestr wrote:
You work for a big 3 auto entity and expect them to encourage a 'natural' state of sales, ie, a rational decline??? You are brave LOL Can I remind you of what drives their agenda =

Right, profit. Over producing and throwing piles of cash on the hood does not equal profit. I actually have some faith that my company is smarter than the rest, but we'll see...

Under the King Trump, we are all too big to fail and make Murica great again....its all good mang....just press on and produce....they have a plan for all of us

The issue comes down the units sold. The factory considers the units sold as soon as they are built. Profits are dispensed based on units sold. The dealers are a whole separate entity. They put in their orders, and also need to carry a certain min quantity of each model. If the factories build too many units the Corp shovels them onto dealers whether they like it or not. Usually there is an order count (say 12-20 days if healthy demand and as high as 50 days for a hot model). Sadly cars should be built to orders.

[user not found] wrote:

Tarspin wrote:The issue comes down the units sold. The factory considers the units sold as soon as they are built. Profits are dispensed based on units sold. The dealers are a whole separate entity. They put in their orders, and also need to carry a certain min quantity of each model. If the factories build too many units the Corp shovels them onto dealers whether they like it or not. Usually there is an order count (say 12-20 days if healthy demand and as high as 50 days for a hot model). Sadly cars should be built to orders.

Yep.

We've got an inventory of over 100 cars here, it's ridiculous.

You can't do that with MINIs.

That's a big number of MINI cars.

Tarspin wrote:The issue comes down the units sold. The factory considers the units sold as soon as they are built. Profits are dispensed based on units sold. The dealers are a whole separate entity. They put in their orders, and also need to carry a certain min quantity of each model. If the factories build too many units the Corp shovels them onto dealers whether they like it or not. Usually there is an order count (say 12-20 days if healthy demand and as high as 50 days for a hot model). Sadly cars should be built to orders.

Exactly why I posted what I did in response to Detroit.

The supply chain is very complicated... you build 1000 cars, and they cost $25000 a piece, you build 2000 cars and they cost 20,000 a piece. So they more you make the MORE you can discount. So the discount becomes semi irrelevant. You have to put all pieces in perspective.

If you don't utilize the chain fully you can't make money. That's why the industry failed in 2008, it is NOT set up for low production numbers.

maxtdi wrote:The supply chain is very complicated... you build 1000 cars, and they cost $25000 a piece, you build 2000 cars and they cost 20,000 a piece. So they more you make the MORE you can discount. So the discount becomes semi irrelevant. You have to put all pieces in perspective.

If you don't utilize the chain fully you can't make money. That's why the industry failed in 2008, it is NOT set up for low production numbers.

Yep and nothing has changed since the last crash. Bail outs will MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!!!

Davestr wrote:

maxtdi wrote:The supply chain is very complicated... you build 1000 cars, and they cost $25000 a piece, you build 2000 cars and they cost 20,000 a piece. So they more you make the MORE you can discount. So the discount becomes semi irrelevant. You have to put all pieces in perspective.

If you don't utilize the chain fully you can't make money. That's why the industry failed in 2008, it is NOT set up for low production numbers.

Yep and nothing has changed since the last crash. Bail outs will MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!!!

The argument was... bail out or not bail out... you bail em out .. of course this happens... you don't bail em out... Detroit of today would be worse than Mad-Max.

Personally... as much as I hate the fact that the .gov blew a few billion on the bail out... it saved jobs Carrier style... and kept them here. If we didn't we'd be getting all our cars from china

Since 2000, the United States has hemorrhaged around 5 million manufacturing jobs, according to NBC News. The Carrier workers in Mexico will make $3 an hour, compared with the $20 an hour paid to their U.S. counterparts, according to Reuters.** And the company confirmed on Thursday that it got a multiyear, $7 million package from the state of Indiana in exchange for keeping 1,000 jobs there.

700 Carrier jobs are still leaving. Trump got work to do and in fact wont make much impact on whats been gone for years. The market will still purge inefficiency over time. New plants will be further automated with even fewer jobs. He is fighting the wrong battle - Automation is the enemy for the mid and long term.

maxtdi wrote:

Davestr wrote:
Yep and nothing has changed since the last crash. Bail outs will MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!!!

The argument was... bail out or not bail out... you bail em out .. of course this happens... you don't bail em out... Detroit of today would be worse than Mad-Max.

Personally... as much as I hate the fact that the .gov blew a few billion on the bail out... it saved jobs Carrier style... and kept them here. If we didn't we'd be getting all our cars from china

Yep this

Or Japan

Davestr wrote:Since 2000, the United States has hemorrhaged around 5 million manufacturing jobs, according to NBC News. The Carrier workers in Mexico will make $3 an hour, compared with the $20 an hour paid to their U.S. counterparts, according to Reuters.** And the company confirmed on Thursday that it got a multiyear, $7 million package from the state of Indiana in exchange for keeping 1,000 jobs there.

700 Carrier jobs are still leaving. Trump got work to do and in fact wont make much impact on whats been gone for years. The market will still purge inefficiency over time. New plants will be further automated with even fewer jobs. He is fighting the wrong battle - Automation is the enemy for the mid and long term.

This isn't exactly right though. Focusing on an hourly wage isn't the point.

a company still has to invest millions/billions in foreign entities to make shit happen. Which is why you have China as the richest country on earth now. We have to play the game right.

The outsource mentality has to stop. Cheap global shipping has made a lot of crazy things happen overtime.

maxtdi wrote:

Davestr wrote:Since 2000, the United States has hemorrhaged around 5 million manufacturing jobs, according to NBC News. The Carrier workers in Mexico will make $3 an hour, compared with the $20 an hour paid to their U.S. counterparts, according to Reuters.** And the company confirmed on Thursday that it got a multiyear, $7 million package from the state of Indiana in exchange for keeping 1,000 jobs there.

700 Carrier jobs are still leaving. Trump got work to do and in fact wont make much impact on whats been gone for years. The market will still purge inefficiency over time. New plants will be further automated with even fewer jobs. He is fighting the wrong battle - Automation is the enemy for the mid and long term.

This isn't exactly right though. Focusing on an hourly wage isn't the point.

a company still has to invest millions/billions in foreign entities to make shit happen. Which is why you have China as the richest country on earth now. We have to play the game right.

The outsource mentality has to stop. Cheap global shipping has made a lot of crazy things happen overtime.

Corps will maxi profit and chase labor until labor is replaced and automated. Its a no win situation. I dont see the US Gov taking it too seriously and its impacting China already. We are not focusing on the cause at all. Trade deals might not help but automation is expanding faster than anyone suspects. Good luck putting the brakes on it. Im glad Trump saved a few jobs. Its not even close to being enough and dont get me started on the labor sitting around not being retrained. US Corps dont seem to overtly care and what impetus is coming from the Gov seems to be a ghost. The jobs are gone and are not coming back. Wall St is losing jobs to automation as well. Its ugly.

How many times do I have to post that the manufacturing situation is WAY different than in 2008? There is no excess capacity. No plants barely surviving. Every plant is at 100% max capacity right now. So, reducing volume doesn't really hurt as much as it did in 2008. Sure, people get laid off, but you're not spending billions shuttering wasted plants. THAT was the problem in 2008.

Yes, the finance game is there where the more you produce, the better you can amortize the cost of such production. But internal accounting (at least at GM) isn't set up entirely like that. Profit is determined on a per unit basis, labor, assembly, shipping, etc is determined based on production volume...which is now set by market size, not the volume required to keep a plant alive. These are two very different accounting methods...the latter being what tanked the industry in 08.

Detroit wrote:

How many times do I have to post that the manufacturing situation is WAY different than in 2008? There is no excess capacity. No plants barely surviving. Every plant is at 100% max capacity right now. So, reducing volume doesn't really hurt as much as it did in 2008. Sure, people get laid off, but you're not spending billions shuttering wasted plants. THAT was the problem in 2008.

Yes, the finance game is there where the more you produce, the better you can amortize the cost of such production. But internal accounting (at least at GM) isn't set up entirely like that. Profit is determined on a per unit basis, labor, assembly, shipping, etc is determined based on production volume...which is now set by market size, not the volume required to keep a plant alive. These are two very different accounting methods...the latter being what tanked the industry in 08.

Um no excess capacity ? Bruh

You're at record levels of auto sales why the fuck would you have excess capacity ... need I remind you sales dipped to 9-10 million from 17 where they are currently ?!

Now I don't think it'll be that bad but this industry can't deal with a 30-40 % contraction period

maxtdi wrote:

Detroit wrote:

How many times do I have to post that the manufacturing situation is WAY different than in 2008? There is no excess capacity. No plants barely surviving. Every plant is at 100% max capacity right now. So, reducing volume doesn't really hurt as much as it did in 2008. Sure, people get laid off, but you're not spending billions shuttering wasted plants. THAT was the problem in 2008.

Yes, the finance game is there where the more you produce, the better you can amortize the cost of such production. But internal accounting (at least at GM) isn't set up entirely like that. Profit is determined on a per unit basis, labor, assembly, shipping, etc is determined based on production volume...which is now set by market size, not the volume required to keep a plant alive. These are two very different accounting methods...the latter being what tanked the industry in 08.

Um no excess capacity ? Bruh

You're at record levels of auto sales why the fuck would you have excess capacity ... need I remind you sales dipped to 9-10 million from 17 where they are currently ?!

Now I don't think it'll be that bad but this industry can't deal with a 30-40 % contraction period

Sure it can.

Close half the plants, fire 1/2 of remaining 5-figure-earning employees, then congratulate yourselves by giving executives 25% raises and more bonuses on top.

A lot of talk about the fake unemployment rate... the government paid 76 billion last year to snap. In 09 that number was half that... also ... 95 million not in labor force is

Oh hi..... shoot they are talking about automation killing jobs.

My fav is always FCA and their madness.... looks like their streak is finally done... Everyone is up and they are down... then again... looks like everyone just blew their load in November with the craziest incentives I have seen so far.

Jeep sales decreased 12 percent to 67,285 units:
Jeep Cherokee sales decreased 36.99 percent to 11,479 units
Jeep Compass sales decreased 24.16 percent to 6,984 units
Jeep Grand Cherokee sales decreased 2.45 percent to 17,230 units
Jeep Patriot sales decreased 13.74 percent to 8,568 units
Jeep Renegade sales increased 30.42 percent to 10,067 units
Jeep Wrangler sales decreased 7.1 percent to 12,957 units

December with be the craziest ever. Then with any luck, it'll contract in January.

And yea, there is no excess capacity. Just a bunch of plants running at max. When things go south, lay off some line workers and it'll be fine.

Hell, look at FCA...they axed their car programs for increased SUV production. Didn't increase capacity, just shifted it. The industry is quite different than it was in 08.