Car Talk 6: Best of times and Worst of Times

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D Griff wrote: Wed Jun 15, 2022 10:51 am
Desertbreh wrote: Wed Jun 15, 2022 10:25 am

Standing water and this problem are just a NO.
:dat:

Although $7K car isn't much these days... that is like one step above non-running.
The issue at hand is that it is likely a 14k car once sorted. And I’d wager that this is essentially a non running vehicle, if it can’t be left outside without turning into the titanic
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Detroit wrote: Wed Jun 15, 2022 11:08 am
D Griff wrote: Wed Jun 15, 2022 10:54 am

:dat:

Hell, I go to the mountains a lot and live in a wonderful state but it's still a good 90minutes each way to any kind of fun roads. Plus, post COVID things are way more crowded so you have to work a bit harder to get off the beaten path.

I love track driving as it's really a learning experience every time, you truly become a better driver, learn the most about vehicle dynamics and tuning. That said, from a fun perspective a canyon drive can be just as good - it's way more chill, great scenery, much less expensive in both fees and consumables.
Yep, a different experience. Track driving has no pedestrians, bicyclists, oncoming traffic, etc other distractions. 100% focused on going around the course as fast as possible. Certainly gets you way more in tune with your vehicle, but it's the focus that I really enjoyed. Getting in the zone with the car pushing 10/10 is just awesome, and those are limits you simply cannot (or should not) find on canyons.

One day I'd love to do track driving again, but there's just so few tracks around to take advantage of. Driving where I am just kinda blows, and while I live in an area with the most twisty roads in the state probably, it's still not as fun as a tight twisty road or track.
That's kind of the thing, once you've done stuff like Angeles Crest and Tail of the Dragon, it's tough to get all that excited about sweeping turn roads found in most areas.
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max225 wrote: Wed Jun 15, 2022 11:23 am
D Griff wrote: Wed Jun 15, 2022 10:51 am

:dat:

Although $7K car isn't much these days... that is like one step above non-running.
The issue at hand is that it is likely a 14k car once sorted. And I’d wager that this is essentially a non running vehicle, if it can’t be left outside without turning into the titanic
:notwrong: :disgust:

Man... I remember :melon: sold his NC Miata for $7K circa 2015 and that thing was pretty much mint, great mods, good spec/color... :sad: times have really changed for car guys.
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D Griff wrote: Wed Jun 15, 2022 12:12 pm
max225 wrote: Wed Jun 15, 2022 11:23 am
The issue at hand is that it is likely a 14k car once sorted. And I’d wager that this is essentially a non running vehicle, if it can’t be left outside without turning into the titanic
:notwrong: :disgust:

Man... I remember :melon: sold his NC Miata for $7K circa 2015 and that thing was pretty much mint, great mods, good spec/color... :sad: times have really changed for car guys.
Yea used vehicles went up just about 40% in 2021 and now another 20% in 2022 YTD. So 7k... is around 12k today... which seems in line. And that's just talking averages, pockets of cars moved a bit different from the average. To be fair pay for most people really went up as well, perhaps not to the full amount but just about everyone here (from what was shared) bonused well, got raises etc.

I personally don't think we're worse off just yet. The LACK of depreciation on cars is actually quite epic, and it allowed myself and others to flip vehicles for a PROFIT. Regardless of the price paid. And those are one off scenarios. It cost me $16k (in maintenance + depreciation) to drive the M3 for 18 months and it was an EPIICC deal with most paying 2x... compared to 0 with the Tacoma for ex...

Does it matter if you pay 20k for a car and it loses 0 in 18 months, vs paying 10k and losing 2-3k... I'll take the 20k scenario anytime.
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max225 wrote: Wed Jun 15, 2022 12:20 pm
D Griff wrote: Wed Jun 15, 2022 12:12 pm

:notwrong: :disgust:

Man... I remember :melon: sold his NC Miata for $7K circa 2015 and that thing was pretty much mint, great mods, good spec/color... :sad: times have really changed for car guys.
Yea used vehicles went up just about 40% in 2021 and now another 20% in 2022 YTD. So 7k... is around 12k today... which seems in line. And that's just talking averages, pockets of cars moved a bit different from the average. To be fair pay for most people really went up as well, perhaps not to the full amount but just about everyone here (from what was shared) bonused well, got raises etc.

I personally don't think we're worse off just yet. The LACK of depreciation on cars is actually quite epic, and it allowed myself and others to flip vehicles for a PROFIT. Regardless of the price paid. And those are one off scenarios. It cost me $16k (in maintenance + depreciation) to drive the M3 for 18 months and it was an EPIICC deal with most paying 2x... compared to 0 with the Tacoma for ex...

Does it matter if you pay 20k for a car and it loses 0 in 18 months, vs paying 10k and losing 2-3k... I'll take the 20k scenario anytime.
All very true, it is sort of fucking the lower class people even more though. If you drive a POS $3K car and it goes to shit and blows a motor/trans/whatever it still becomes worth zero and you then have to buy a new shitbox which is clearly at least $7K.

Those who already own shit when inflation hits hard are generally OK. It doesn't sting quite as bad when your house pays you six figures on top of job income.

Our car sitch is quite epic as well - 33K+ 100% FREE miles in the Jeep if you ignore gas and insurance and even with the :plac: Tomfoolery I have essentially had 25K FREE miles in the Beemah as well. It is worth more today than I bought it for round one with only 15K on the clock back in 2018.
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D Griff wrote: Wed Jun 15, 2022 12:37 pm
max225 wrote: Wed Jun 15, 2022 12:20 pm

Yea used vehicles went up just about 40% in 2021 and now another 20% in 2022 YTD. So 7k... is around 12k today... which seems in line. And that's just talking averages, pockets of cars moved a bit different from the average. To be fair pay for most people really went up as well, perhaps not to the full amount but just about everyone here (from what was shared) bonused well, got raises etc.

I personally don't think we're worse off just yet. The LACK of depreciation on cars is actually quite epic, and it allowed myself and others to flip vehicles for a PROFIT. Regardless of the price paid. And those are one off scenarios. It cost me $16k (in maintenance + depreciation) to drive the M3 for 18 months and it was an EPIICC deal with most paying 2x... compared to 0 with the Tacoma for ex...

Does it matter if you pay 20k for a car and it loses 0 in 18 months, vs paying 10k and losing 2-3k... I'll take the 20k scenario anytime.
All very true, it is sort of fucking the lower class people even more though. If you drive a POS $3K car and it goes to shit and blows a motor/trans/whatever it still becomes worth zero and you then have to buy a new shitbox which is clearly at least $7K.

Those who already own shit when inflation hits hard are generally OK. It doesn't sting quite as bad when your house pays you six figures on top of job income.

Our car sitch is quite epic as well - 33K+ 100% FREE miles in the Jeep if you ignore gas and insurance and even with the :plac: Tomfoolery I have essentially had 25K FREE miles in the Beemah as well. It is worth more today than I bought it for round one with only 15K on the clock back in 2018.
Inflation always fucks the bottom the most. It is quite terrifying as to what will happen to the bottom 25% over the next few years unless prices start coming down.
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max225 wrote: Wed Jun 15, 2022 12:45 pm
D Griff wrote: Wed Jun 15, 2022 12:37 pm

All very true, it is sort of fucking the lower class people even more though. If you drive a POS $3K car and it goes to shit and blows a motor/trans/whatever it still becomes worth zero and you then have to buy a new shitbox which is clearly at least $7K.

Those who already own shit when inflation hits hard are generally OK. It doesn't sting quite as bad when your house pays you six figures on top of job income.

Our car sitch is quite epic as well - 33K+ 100% FREE miles in the Jeep if you ignore gas and insurance and even with the :plac: Tomfoolery I have essentially had 25K FREE miles in the Beemah as well. It is worth more today than I bought it for round one with only 15K on the clock back in 2018.
Inflation always fucks the bottom the most. It is quite terrifying as to what will happen to the bottom 25% over the next few years unless prices start coming down.
That's the rub. Prices never come down.
Desertbreh wrote: Tue Oct 10, 2017 6:40 pm My guess would be that Chris took some time off because he has read the dialogue on this page 1,345 times and decided to spend some of his free time doing something besides beating a horse to death.
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https://electrek.co/2022/06/15/tesla-ts ... ss-lineup/

And another price increase ….

That S that I bought in December for 80k is now 105k. Madness
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max225 wrote: Thu Jun 16, 2022 9:55 am https://electrek.co/2022/06/15/tesla-ts ... ss-lineup/

And another price increase ….

That S that I bought in December for 80k is now 105k. Madness
I wonder what will happen if demand ever drops?
Desertbreh wrote: Tue Oct 10, 2017 6:40 pm My guess would be that Chris took some time off because he has read the dialogue on this page 1,345 times and decided to spend some of his free time doing something besides beating a horse to death.
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Detroit wrote: Thu Jun 16, 2022 9:59 am
max225 wrote: Thu Jun 16, 2022 9:55 am https://electrek.co/2022/06/15/tesla-ts ... ss-lineup/

And another price increase ….

That S that I bought in December for 80k is now 105k. Madness
I wonder what will happen if demand ever drops?
They used to offer things like “free colors” or “wheel upgrades”. Prolly that first. But tesla in it’s history never really had price cuts. But it is a newish company
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max225 wrote: Thu Jun 16, 2022 10:01 am
Detroit wrote: Thu Jun 16, 2022 9:59 am
I wonder what will happen if demand ever drops?
They used to offer things like “free colors” or “wheel upgrades”. Prolly that first. But tesla in it’s history never really had price cuts. But it is a newish company
Price cuts do nothing but piss people off. It's why incentives exist and OEMs don't usually take drastic MSRP pricing action. It's easy to price up as Tesla's doing when demand is infinite, but I really question how many people are willing to drop six figures on a car in the next few years. As long as everyone's rich forever it doesn't matter, and I guess the Tesla payment is more important than many other things to most people.
Desertbreh wrote: Tue Oct 10, 2017 6:40 pm My guess would be that Chris took some time off because he has read the dialogue on this page 1,345 times and decided to spend some of his free time doing something besides beating a horse to death.
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Detroit wrote: Thu Jun 16, 2022 10:27 am
max225 wrote: Thu Jun 16, 2022 10:01 am

They used to offer things like “free colors” or “wheel upgrades”. Prolly that first. But tesla in it’s history never really had price cuts. But it is a newish company
Price cuts do nothing but piss people off. It's why incentives exist and OEMs don't usually take drastic MSRP pricing action. It's easy to price up as Tesla's doing when demand is infinite, but I really question how many people are willing to drop six figures on a car in the next few years. As long as everyone's rich forever it doesn't matter, and I guess the Tesla payment is more important than many other things to most people.
Their volume (95%) sellers are 3, and Y and those are around 56-72k the price of a rav 4 prime with markup. IF you can get that pos
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max225 wrote: Thu Jun 16, 2022 10:31 am
Detroit wrote: Thu Jun 16, 2022 10:27 am
Price cuts do nothing but piss people off. It's why incentives exist and OEMs don't usually take drastic MSRP pricing action. It's easy to price up as Tesla's doing when demand is infinite, but I really question how many people are willing to drop six figures on a car in the next few years. As long as everyone's rich forever it doesn't matter, and I guess the Tesla payment is more important than many other things to most people.
Their volume (95%) sellers are 3, and Y and those are around 56-72k the price of a rav 4 prime with markup. IF you can get that pos
Have price changes on those models been more restrained? I still have a hard time believing that there's a bunch of future demand in this price range even. That's not a Tesla problem, but an industry wide problem.
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Detroit wrote: Thu Jun 16, 2022 10:39 am
max225 wrote: Thu Jun 16, 2022 10:31 am

Their volume (95%) sellers are 3, and Y and those are around 56-72k the price of a rav 4 prime with markup. IF you can get that pos
Have price changes on those models been more restrained? I still have a hard time believing that there's a bunch of future demand in this price range even. That's not a Tesla problem, but an industry wide problem.
No the price increases as a % of prior msrp are all in the 25/30% range in line with what happened with the rest of the oems + stealer shartups
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My dooms day car market prediction is that once lay offs hit people will flood the market with their 2nd and 3rd vehicles etc.

I’m thinking lay offs as a first wave will happen mid July (2nd quarter earnings) and mid October (3rd quarter). As companies will seek to improve finances through spending cuts, and it’ll be the first 2 quarters of full cost inflation and down on revenue.

given where the economy has gone the car market will get there by the end of the year or maybe even fall.
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max225 wrote: Thu Jun 16, 2022 10:42 am My dooms day car market prediction is that once lay offs hit people will flood the market with their 2nd and 3rd vehicles etc.

I’m thinking lay offs as a first wave will happen mid July (2nd quarter earnings) and mid October (3rd quarter). As companies will seek to improve finances through spending cuts, and it’ll be the first 2 quarters of full cost inflation and down on revenue.

given where the economy has gone the car market will get there by the end of the year or maybe even fall.
I question how many disposable 2nd and 3rd vehicles are out there. With used values and difficulty buying new, I think impulse car purchases have been minimal. Most people I know only have vehicles they need, and I know a number of people holding onto older vehicles for longer than normal because they can't buy new.

My prediction is demand for $75k+ priced vehicles will crater, and it's those vehicles that will flood the market as people off them because they can't afford the payment after being laid off. I think the sub-$75k market will stay strong, particularly sub-$50k will likely grow. Since there's really nothing there today, that's where :popcorn: will start.

Which puts premium-only brands such as Tesla at a significant disadvantage.
Desertbreh wrote: Tue Oct 10, 2017 6:40 pm My guess would be that Chris took some time off because he has read the dialogue on this page 1,345 times and decided to spend some of his free time doing something besides beating a horse to death.
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:iono: sooo many people are buying up 'fun cars' and shit now. More than ever I'd say. I have multiple colleagues who have either upped their main vehicles or added additional. To many "OMG my car is worth 40% more" is a perfectly good reason to buy a car that's another 50% or whatever above that.

I think it'll be a bubble to burst kind of like housing 15 years ago... 'cheap' cars will stay high as many will try to downgrade or sell off extra stuff, so demand on the lower end will be strong. Expensive/unnecessary shit like :truk: /high end sports cars may drop as people attempt to get out of them.

:iono: I think Max is right... like I'm sitting here looking at flights for work. I have a trip to Dallas six weeks out and it's $950 RT. Fucking Dallas. American hub to American hub. Used to be $250 any day when I was in my last travel job 2014-2018. At what point is the company like... the total cost of this person is insane and they just dump me? Margins are down too in electronics across the board even with prices raised.
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Detroit wrote: Thu Jun 16, 2022 10:53 am
max225 wrote: Thu Jun 16, 2022 10:42 am My dooms day car market prediction is that once lay offs hit people will flood the market with their 2nd and 3rd vehicles etc.

I’m thinking lay offs as a first wave will happen mid July (2nd quarter earnings) and mid October (3rd quarter). As companies will seek to improve finances through spending cuts, and it’ll be the first 2 quarters of full cost inflation and down on revenue.

given where the economy has gone the car market will get there by the end of the year or maybe even fall.
I question how many disposable 2nd and 3rd vehicles are out there. With used values and difficulty buying new, I think impulse car purchases have been minimal. Most people I know only have vehicles they need, and I know a number of people holding onto older vehicles for longer than normal because they can't buy new.

My prediction is demand for $75k+ priced vehicles will crater, and it's those vehicles that will flood the market as people off them because they can't afford the payment after being laid off. I think the sub-$75k market will stay strong, particularly sub-$50k will likely grow. Since there's really nothing there today, that's where :popcorn: will start.

Which puts premium-only brands such as Tesla at a significant disadvantage.
Pretty much :dat: other than I disagree on the impulse thing. I think people are still in that 'I should #YOLO because the world almost ended in 2020" mindset.
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D Griff wrote: Thu Jun 16, 2022 1:27 pm
Detroit wrote: Thu Jun 16, 2022 10:53 am
I question how many disposable 2nd and 3rd vehicles are out there. With used values and difficulty buying new, I think impulse car purchases have been minimal. Most people I know only have vehicles they need, and I know a number of people holding onto older vehicles for longer than normal because they can't buy new.

My prediction is demand for $75k+ priced vehicles will crater, and it's those vehicles that will flood the market as people off them because they can't afford the payment after being laid off. I think the sub-$75k market will stay strong, particularly sub-$50k will likely grow. Since there's really nothing there today, that's where :popcorn: will start.

Which puts premium-only brands such as Tesla at a significant disadvantage.
Pretty much :dat: other than I disagree on the impulse thing. I think people are still in that 'I should #YOLO because the world almost ended in 2020" mindset.
Well, you can only buy what's available, which isn't much. Sure, what is available is being snapped up instantly, but I think the overall impact to industry volume and values at large will be minimal from people offing extra vehicles.

Yesterday, I told my Toyota sales dude to just call me if he gets anything interesting with a manual transmission in (86, Supra, GRCorolla). He said they just don't get those sort of vehicles in, but he'd let me know in the off chance they do. I'll just keep rolling in one vehicle, but I'd like to have a second at some point (which is future demand). I guess I'm in the minority and everyone just :triggered: :troywax: on anything they can get.
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D Griff wrote: Thu Jun 16, 2022 1:26 pm :iono: sooo many people are buying up 'fun cars' and shit now. More than ever I'd say. I have multiple colleagues who have either upped their main vehicles or added additional. To many "OMG my car is worth 40% more" is a perfectly good reason to buy a car that's another 50% or whatever above that.

I think it'll be a bubble to burst kind of like housing 15 years ago... 'cheap' cars will stay high as many will try to downgrade or sell off extra stuff, so demand on the lower end will be strong. Expensive/unnecessary shit like :truk: /high end sports cars may drop as people attempt to get out of them.

:iono: I think Max is right... like I'm sitting here looking at flights for work. I have a trip to Dallas six weeks out and it's $950 RT. Fucking Dallas. American hub to American hub. Used to be $250 any day when I was in my last travel job 2014-2018. At what point is the company like... the total cost of this person is insane and they just dump me? Margins are down too in electronics across the board even with prices raised.
My company cut travel. I used to have a requirement for quarterly in person meetings, now it'll just be "as needed". They scheduled a meeting for the week of the 4th of July :ayfkm: but made it optional for people to come in the office (these sorts of meetings used to be mandatory). I told my boss I've got friends visiting and whatnot around the holiday, and it was completely NBD that I'm not coming in.

That said, they could just as easily can me and keep people close to the office only. I could use a break anyway, so I'm :aintcare: with it all.
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D Griff wrote: Thu Jun 16, 2022 1:26 pm :iono: sooo many people are buying up 'fun cars' and shit now. More than ever I'd say. I have multiple colleagues who have either upped their main vehicles or added additional. To many "OMG my car is worth 40% more" is a perfectly good reason to buy a car that's another 50% or whatever above that.

I think it'll be a bubble to burst kind of like housing 15 years ago... 'cheap' cars will stay high as many will try to downgrade or sell off extra stuff, so demand on the lower end will be strong. Expensive/unnecessary shit like :truk: /high end sports cars may drop as people attempt to get out of them.

:iono: I think Max is right... like I'm sitting here looking at flights for work. I have a trip to Dallas six weeks out and it's $950 RT. Fucking Dallas. American hub to American hub. Used to be $250 any day when I was in my last travel job 2014-2018. At what point is the company like... the total cost of this person is insane and they just dump me? Margins are down too in electronics across the board even with prices raised.
The cars will move in the same pattern as the stock market. Because of the money/paperwork involved in the transaction it just takes longer to see an immediate result. Same thing will happen to housing but even later than cars.

stocks<Cars<houses all move into correction soon enough.

Cheap will be cheaper and new will sit on lot... and incentives will come back.

:yeahok: never gonna happen cuz "everyone NEEDS a NEW CAR" no they do not... and with interest rates about to rise and jobs contracting ... that "NEED" is about to go out the fking window. Lets not forget how FEW cars were sold in 09, and that GM/Chrysler went belly UP. Fraud managed to stay afloat by selling off both kidneys.... lol

2020 was a fun experiment in Macro economics, but the outcome was entirely and utterly predictable.
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Detroit wrote: Thu Jun 16, 2022 2:14 pm
D Griff wrote: Thu Jun 16, 2022 1:27 pm

Pretty much :dat: other than I disagree on the impulse thing. I think people are still in that 'I should #YOLO because the world almost ended in 2020" mindset.
Well, you can only buy what's available, which isn't much. Sure, what is available is being snapped up instantly, but I think the overall impact to industry volume and values at large will be minimal from people offing extra vehicles.

Yesterday, I told my Toyota sales dude to just call me if he gets anything interesting with a manual transmission in (86, Supra, GRCorolla). He said they just don't get those sort of vehicles in, but he'd let me know in the off chance they do. I'll just keep rolling in one vehicle, but I'd like to have a second at some point (which is future demand). I guess I'm in the minority and everyone just :triggered: :troywax: on anything they can get.
Patience is a rare virtue :lolol:

I am kind of similar, I would like something different than the cuck wagon but I have zero interest in playing the games of 2022. I will sit it out, if I'm sitting it out for a year or more from now, that is fine. I can't see dealing with all of the headaches of trying to find something new at MSRP or dealing with the used market when I already have a cheap, paid off, functional/decent car in hand.

Should things get better, I may pull the trigger. Hell if things really go to shit like Max predicts and I'm somehow still gainfully employed, it may open up opportunities that are out of reach today like an Evora or Cayman or something.
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The part that is hard to disassociate is the whole "I am going to be fine while everyone else is selling caymans at a discount" it will be just as relatively expensive as it is now. Because all of our owned assets/incomes etc would have contracted at a similar pace. If that makes any sense. I learned a lot during the 08-12 "recession". Man I just hope it won't be THAT bad...
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max225 wrote: Thu Jun 16, 2022 2:56 pm The part that is hard to disassociate is the whole "I am going to be fine while everyone else is selling caymans at a discount" it will be just as relatively expensive as it is now. Because all of our owned assets/incomes etc would have contracted at a similar pace. If that makes any sense. I learned a lot during the 08-12 "recession". Man I just hope it won't be THAT bad...
This is certainly true... but I also hope that playing this whole thing fairly conservatively could pay off somewhat.

Say my house takes a dump in value, :aintcare: , I'm not moving, have a dirt cheap interest rate, have already paid off 25-30% of original purchase price which was before it mysteriously jumped 60-70% in 2.5 years.

If the Beemah drops back down, well, I own it outright, I am :aintcare: if I get $15K or 20K for it really, that would have little impact on whether or not I could afford a new car.

Bought a Jeep at $5K under MSRP and worst case scenario it will be worth like $10K under MSRP, we will still be right side up and really have no reason to dump it.

:iono: I feel like (as Eric puts it) 'Joe American' who bought an RV, a beach condo, and $90K CUMMINS RAM during this shitshow is the guy who really gets fucked. I hope I am right about this, but it will probably be the classic story of those who did the dumbest shit getting rewarded.
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D Griff
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And for those of us regular poors who aren't paid in Bay Area stock options, we're either in or out. Like unless I get canned, my income won't really change that hugely. Given I'm in sales mine does to an extent, but not 50% or whatever, and :tits: is 100% consistent.

My commissions this year are already kind of shit, so I'm now used to it. I got like a 30% base pay raise with this new role and I'll be lucky to break even against 2021, so I don't see that changing all that much into 2023 unless I'm shit canned entirely, at which point, yeah, certainly no Cayman.
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