2021 :plac: life!

[Tar]

Not sure any are available, that's definitely something I need to consider.

They are expensive right out of the turn gates, but I have connects that will get me dealer cost + 5% on Toyota things; maybe some models are excluded, so I have to do more homework on the subject. List on a Prime (lower trim) is 44k, a $5k gov discount gets it to 39 plus rape fees which bring it back to 42 plus 13% tax. If I can get it at discount I'm probably 40k plus... or 45k OTD, which is still a whopping 20k above what I have on my driveway. It will carry that extra cost as residual value for the next four years (always be worth 20k more then the R), so that's not too big of a deal. I just don't know if there's any point in doing all that unless there's an actual savings sitting in my lap.

Maintenance on the R is up to date with no pending :doom: in sight, and I have extended warr for another 40k... Fueling it up is probably double the cost of a Prime, so I'm probably taking about eliminating two fills at $85/each per month. The only tangible benefit may be on the business side, if the EV thing is really a 100% write off. Not sure how that works yet, but I suspect there's a catch.

You can see how a hyper bloated Carvana/Vroom buying solution really changes the game... If anything severe happens to that business model there could be a significant fall out in the used/new car market for a while. The whole thing makes me really wonder where these companies will be when production of new cars ramps up to 100% in the next few months.

Not to sound like a Debbie downer, but I think you should check in with your contacts. The PRIMEs are the most desirable Toyotas outside of TRD pros, and as they are far more mass market; the mismatch between what you can get and for how much is quite great.

I haven't heard any "at cost" or close to "at cost" deals for almost 12 months now. Perhaps Canada is different but out here this is absolutely unheard of.

I do need to check with my contacts, any at cost isn't confirmed yet. I had the employee deal in my lap on a Rav which we walked away from in favor of keeping the Touareg, but that's over one year ago and I wanna say right around the time chip shortages started becoming a thing for non-toyota manufacturers. Let's say that if this scenario doesn't present itself as illustrated, it just makes the plan even less desirable to me. I really don't need to throw an extra 20k at driving around more efficiently three or four years sooner then planned. It is a $8k fuel bill spread over four years, so not the end of the world I guess. I should find out for sure, maybe I'll drop a call to my local Toyota dealership and ask some questions.

[max225]

Not to sound like a Debbie downer, but I think you should check in with your contacts. The PRIMEs are the most desirable Toyotas outside of TRD pros, and as they are far more mass market; the mismatch between what you can get and for how much is quite great.

I haven't heard any "at cost" or close to "at cost" deals for almost 12 months now. Perhaps Canada is different but out here this is absolutely unheard of.

I do need to check with my contacts, any at cost isn't confirmed yet. I had the employee deal in my lap on a Rav which we walked away from in favor of keeping the Touareg, but that's over one year ago and I wanna say right around the time chip shortages started becoming a thing for non-toyota manufacturers. Let's say that if this scenario doesn't present itself as illustrated, it just makes the plan even less desirable to me. I really don't need to throw an extra 20k at driving around more efficiently three or four years sooner then planned. It is a $8k fuel bill spread over four years, so not the end of the world I guess. I should find out for sure, maybe I'll drop a call to my local Toyota dealership and ask some questions.

Keep us in the loop. Seems like you'll get an answer rather quickly.

Also one un-addressed thing here... RAV-4 is not going to be anywhere near as fun to drive as the R. Yes it'll be quicker straight line but that's it. Braking/handling etc is eh... and interiors on Toyotas are still fairly behind the germans. For ex, the backup/exterior cameras are ABYSMAL, and you see "cost cutting" every day that way. My 16 mini has 3x the resolution of the Tacoma, and even the 2010 TSX has slightly better resolution.
Just something to keep in mind, devil is in the details. Toyota does mechanicals/ease of maintenance amazingly, but the rest is really substellar imo.

[fledonfoot]

Not to sound like a Debbie downer, but I think you should check in with your contacts. The PRIMEs are the most desirable Toyotas outside of TRD pros, and as they are far more mass market; the mismatch between what you can get and for how much is quite great.

I haven't heard any "at cost" or close to "at cost" deals for almost 12 months now. Perhaps Canada is different but out here this is absolutely unheard of.

OEM employee and family discounts still exist for the americans. Toyota and the other probably follow suit, the question is how much flexibility employees have now with sharing their discounts. Stellanus and GM would limit sharing in times of high demand.

Toyota offer employee discounts for corporate and production employees only. Nothing for the dealership staff. Dealers will typically go to holdback for employees but it's up to store management.

[Tar]

I do need to check with my contacts, any at cost isn't confirmed yet. I had the employee deal in my lap on a Rav which we walked away from in favor of keeping the Touareg, but that's over one year ago and I wanna say right around the time chip shortages started becoming a thing for non-toyota manufacturers. Let's say that if this scenario doesn't present itself as illustrated, it just makes the plan even less desirable to me. I really don't need to throw an extra 20k at driving around more efficiently three or four years sooner then planned. It is a $8k fuel bill spread over four years, so not the end of the world I guess. I should find out for sure, maybe I'll drop a call to my local Toyota dealership and ask some questions.

Keep us in the loop. Seems like you'll get an answer rather quickly.

Also one un-addressed thing here... RAV-4 is not going to be anywhere near as fun to drive as the R. Yes it'll be quicker straight line but that's it. Braking/handling etc is eh... and interiors on Toyotas are still fairly behind the germans. For ex, the backup/exterior cameras are ABYSMAL, and you see "cost cutting" every day that way. My 16 mini has 3x the resolution of the Tacoma, and even the 2010 TSX has slightly better resolution.
Just something to keep in mind, devil is in the details. Toyota does mechanicals/ease of maintenance amazingly, but the rest is really substellar imo.

Made the first call...
So Prime Ravs are currently being reported to customers here as a two to three year wait. There are eight orders pending already, and many people who plunk down the $1K and wait get placed in a Rav Hybrid with an early buyout that has a track record of early buy backs with positive equity (obviously the case at this time). It's too early to look into the discount programs that I think I still may have some access to, but the dealer I spoke with sells everything at MSRP to people just walking in off the street. A Rav Hybrid is a three to six month wait if ordered now.

The way this would play out is laughable. I'd lease a Rav Hybrid, get me appraisal value for my car now with some factored depreciation on the R based on real world km usage... Then I would drive the lease for two to three years until the Prime becomes available, and the dealer offers me an early out of the lease on the Hybrid.

I'm not entirely sold on this whole idea, the Rav Trail/Adventure we test drove was dece, I liked the padded storage pockets etc and thought it was fairly nicely equipped for the price. I don't really need to be pampered, and my driving enjoyment is practically neutered by strict regulations and a "less then exemplary driving record" according to a government prosecutor that I made a deal with recently. The old adage "cheaper to keep 'er" still holds true.... I'll see you all back in this thread in three or four years

[Tar]

I do need to check with my contacts, any at cost isn't confirmed yet. I had the employee deal in my lap on a Rav which we walked away from in favor of keeping the Touareg, but that's over one year ago and I wanna say right around the time chip shortages started becoming a thing for non-toyota manufacturers. Let's say that if this scenario doesn't present itself as illustrated, it just makes the plan even less desirable to me. I really don't need to throw an extra 20k at driving around more efficiently three or four years sooner then planned. It is a $8k fuel bill spread over four years, so not the end of the world I guess. I should find out for sure, maybe I'll drop a call to my local Toyota dealership and ask some questions.

Keep us in the loop. Seems like you'll get an answer rather quickly.

Also one un-addressed thing here... RAV-4 is not going to be anywhere near as fun to drive as the R. Yes it'll be quicker straight line but that's it. Braking/handling etc is eh... and interiors on Toyotas are still fairly behind the germans. For ex, the backup/exterior cameras are ABYSMAL, and you see "cost cutting" every day that way. My 16 mini has 3x the resolution of the Tacoma, and even the 2010 TSX has slightly better resolution.
Just something to keep in mind, devil is in the details. Toyota does mechanicals/ease of maintenance amazingly, but the rest is really substellar imo.

I do still like the R, an extended warranty, newly refreshed brakes and tires, and generally good upkeep make the car a practical and cheap way to drive a premium vehicle for very little cost over the next four years.

I'm just speculating whether or not keeping it makes the most sense. Thankfully it's an easy decision, even if I wanted to , there's no physical inventory for high demand vehicles right now.

[max225]

Keep us in the loop. Seems like you'll get an answer rather quickly.

Also one un-addressed thing here... RAV-4 is not going to be anywhere near as fun to drive as the R. Yes it'll be quicker straight line but that's it. Braking/handling etc is eh... and interiors on Toyotas are still fairly behind the germans. For ex, the backup/exterior cameras are ABYSMAL, and you see "cost cutting" every day that way. My 16 mini has 3x the resolution of the Tacoma, and even the 2010 TSX has slightly better resolution.
Just something to keep in mind, devil is in the details. Toyota does mechanicals/ease of maintenance amazingly, but the rest is really substellar imo.

Made the first call...
So Prime Ravs are currently being reported to customers here as a two to three year wait. There are eight orders pending already, and many people who plunk down the $1K and wait get placed in a Rav Hybrid with an early buyout that has a track record of early buy backs with positive equity (obviously the case at this time). It's too early to look into the discount programs that I think I still may have some access to, but the dealer I spoke with sells everything at MSRP to people just walking in off the street. A Rav Hybrid is a three to six month wait if ordered now.

The way this would play out is laughable. I'd lease a Rav Hybrid, get me appraisal value for my car now with some factored depreciation on the R based on real world km usage... Then I would drive the lease for two to three years until the Prime becomes available, and the dealer offers me an early out of the lease on the Hybrid.

I'm not entirely sold on this whole idea, the Rav Trail/Adventure we test drove was dece, I liked the padded storage pockets etc and thought it was fairly nicely equipped for the price. I don't really need to be pampered, and my driving enjoyment is practically neutered by strict regulations and a "less then exemplary driving record" according to a government prosecutor that I made a deal with recently. The old adage "cheaper to keep 'er" still holds true.... I'll see you all back in this thread in three or four years

Yep this sounds about right. As I mentioned they are simply not made in appropriate numbers. Toyota is “fixing” that in 22 supposedly.

Also this sounds like a Porsche level of “buy a GT3” through buying 2 Macans at sticker and build a “relationship” level of bullshit.

Currently you just gotta weigh your options, waiting 3 years for a toyota rav 4 seems to me to be honest.

[Tar]

Not sure any are available, that's definitely something I need to consider.

They are expensive right out of the turn gates, but I have connects that will get me dealer cost + 5% on Toyota things; maybe some models are excluded, so I have to do more homework on the subject. List on a Prime (lower trim) is 44k, a $5k gov discount gets it to 39 plus rape fees which bring it back to 42 plus 13% tax. If I can get it at discount I'm probably 40k plus... or 45k OTD, which is still a whopping 20k above what I have on my driveway. It will carry that extra cost as residual value for the next four years (always be worth 20k more then the R), so that's not too big of a deal. I just don't know if there's any point in doing all that unless there's an actual savings sitting in my lap.

Maintenance on the R is up to date with no pending :doom: in sight, and I have extended warr for another 40k... Fueling it up is probably double the cost of a Prime, so I'm probably taking about eliminating two fills at $85/each per month. The only tangible benefit may be on the business side, if the EV thing is really a 100% write off. Not sure how that works yet, but I suspect there's a catch.

You can see how a hyper bloated Carvana/Vroom buying solution really changes the game... If anything severe happens to that business model there could be a significant fall out in the used/new car market for a while. The whole thing makes me really wonder where these companies will be when production of new cars ramps up to 100% in the next few months.

This Carvana thing will not end well. Take my current case for example, they're offering $5k more than any other service or my local dealer can on the Cucktrek. The offer is so high that I suspect it's an error, but I've had 2 now both within a grand of each other.

That's not at all sustainable, and if they're doing this on a wide scale, when values drop they could be left holding a really hefty bag of underwater vehicles. They're ruining the market with this practice, and I just don't see how it's going to end up ok. I wouldn't be surprised if an OEM or an EV startup or something buys all the vending machine properties for direct distribution after the fall-out.

It might screw things up for new car manufacturers too, I don't know how much stock they hold, but if it all gets let go in fire-sale fashion, then I'll be happy to buy a low cost Toyota for work related bullshit and keep the R. I'd be good for cars until I'm 50 or 55 yrs old.... So that's at least one extra overpriced Rav not getting sold.

[max225]

I mean the whole thing is... I have no idea who all these "consumers/customers" are who are willing and ABLE to pay these insane prices. They are their own worst enemy. There are few reasons for prices to be as high as they are, but it seems like an overall bubble like environment.

I actually think the high USED values are fueling the demand for new cars even further, exacerbating the situation, this is a runaway diesel type of situation. Normally people would be upside-down and not able to afford shit, shockingly as the used prices one up FAR MORE than new, it gave a lot of "equity" to those kicking tires.

What a cluster of an environment to be honest. It'll work itself out it always does. This country has more vehicles than people. There is no rhyme or reason for this price appreciation.

[MrH42]

I just checked Carvana to see what I'd get for the Outback...

I bought it in December, 2019. Here's what I paid:

MSRP: $40,200
Discount: -$1,979
Net Sales Price: $38,221
Tax, Title, Doc: $1,222

Total Price: $39,643

16k miles, 2 years later, Carvana offers $37,643. $2k in depreciation, taxes included

Remove tax and title, and it's depreciated $578

[ChrisoftheNorth]

I mean the whole thing is... I have no idea who all these "consumers/customers" are who are willing and ABLE to pay these insane prices. They are their own worst enemy. There are few reasons for prices to be as high as they are, but it seems like an overall bubble like environment.

I actually think the high USED values are fueling the demand for new cars even further, exacerbating the situation, this is a runaway diesel type of situation. Normally people would be upside-down and not able to afford shit, shockingly as the used prices one up FAR MORE than new, it gave a lot of "equity" to those kicking tires.

What a cluster of an environment to be honest. It'll work itself out it always does. This country has more vehicles than people. There is no rhyme or reason for this price appreciation.

This really is a cluster. Anyone with half a brain wouldn't buy a used vehicle right now, they just make zero sense unless you're desperate and even then I'd just buy whatever new thing I could get my hands on with good resale. That absolutely increases demand for new vehicles because used prices are pulling new people into the market (like myself).

Very curious to see how all this shakes out, going to be big time.

[D Griff]

I just checked Carvana to see what I'd get for the Outback...

I bought it in December, 2019. Here's what I paid:

MSRP: $40,200
Discount: -$1,979
Net Sales Price: $38,221
Tax, Title, Doc: $1,222

Total Price: $39,643

16k miles, 2 years later, Carvana offers $37,643. $2k in depreciation, taxes included

Remove tax and title, and it's depreciated $578

Our was a bit higher MSRP/discount but the OTD numbers are almost identical and they are offering essentially just over what we paid before TTL 27K miles later

[MrH42]

If I could move fast enough, I'd consider selling Outback & S2000, buying a new BRZ, and sitting on a mountain of cash until a Ford Lightning becomes available.

[D Griff]

I mean the whole thing is... I have no idea who all these "consumers/customers" are who are willing and ABLE to pay these insane prices. They are their own worst enemy. There are few reasons for prices to be as high as they are, but it seems like an overall bubble like environment.

I actually think the high USED values are fueling the demand for new cars even further, exacerbating the situation, this is a runaway diesel type of situation. Normally people would be upside-down and not able to afford shit, shockingly as the used prices one up FAR MORE than new, it gave a lot of "equity" to those kicking tires.

What a cluster of an environment to be honest. It'll work itself out it always does. This country has more vehicles than people. There is no rhyme or reason for this price appreciation.

It will come to a close pretty soon I think, but what a ride. The temptation to to the 'vana is real but you kind of end up in a meh situation regardless. I think Carvana could wind up in a pretty bad spot if things change at a rapid pace

They own a shit ton of (formerly) depreciating assets and if market demand cools off, they are fucked.

[D Griff]

If I could move fast enough, I'd consider selling Outback & S2000, buying a new BRZ, and sitting on a mountain of cash until a Ford Lightning becomes available.

The trouble is... when will one be able to get a BRZ/GR86? It could be a year or more, particularly if we're talking a 2-3 year wait for a fucking Rav4.

[max225]

I mean the whole thing is... I have no idea who all these "consumers/customers" are who are willing and ABLE to pay these insane prices. They are their own worst enemy. There are few reasons for prices to be as high as they are, but it seems like an overall bubble like environment.

I actually think the high USED values are fueling the demand for new cars even further, exacerbating the situation, this is a runaway diesel type of situation. Normally people would be upside-down and not able to afford shit, shockingly as the used prices one up FAR MORE than new, it gave a lot of "equity" to those kicking tires.

What a cluster of an environment to be honest. It'll work itself out it always does. This country has more vehicles than people. There is no rhyme or reason for this price appreciation.

It will come to a close pretty soon I think, but what a ride. The temptation to to the 'vana is real but you kind of end up in a meh situation regardless. I think Carvana could wind up in a pretty bad spot if things change at a rapid pace

They own a shit ton of (formerly) depreciating assets and if market demand cools off, they are fucked.

Perfect storm is brewing:

New OEMs are signaling more builds
Runway pricing putting new cars out of reach for a lot of people
Everyone who wanted/needed a car essentially got one over the past year and is now upside down, with reduced buying capacity
Gas prices reaching all time highs for 1/4 of the country
Inflationary pressure on common goods depressing budgets allotted for vehicles
Record inventories sitting in these hyped up .com companies who will be in dire need of capital.

I would be utterly shocked if there isn’t a 20-30% price correction in 2022.

[max225]

If I could move fast enough, I'd consider selling Outback & S2000, buying a new BRZ, and sitting on a mountain of cash until a Ford Lightning becomes available.

The trouble is... when will one be able to get a BRZ/GR86? It could be a year or more, particularly if we're talking a 2-3 year wait for a fucking Rav4.

It’s a rav 4 prime. Super limited production unlike the 400k rav general populous. Brz will likely be attainable within the year

[Tar]

Camry SE Hybrid with some optional add ons is coming to my local dealer in two months. Just for shits and giggles Im going to have them appraise the R.

[Tar]

Used market retail is $30-32k, now Camry coming in is 36. Tax is saved on the differential, so it will be interesting to see what they draft up.

[max225]

Historically speaking a Camry hybrid is rapidly depreciating though …

You should weigh any “fuel savings” as against a 50% depreciation over the next 5 years …

[Tar]

Historically speaking a Camry hybrid is rapidly depreciating though …

For sure, the appeal is comfort/fuel efficiency/more space for the two kids/trunk space/lasts forever with minimal fuss. It is the proper tool for the job with me going to Grand Bend, service work travels, etc.

[Tar]

Historically speaking a Camry hybrid is rapidly depreciating though …

You should weigh any “fuel savings” as against a 50% depreciation over the next 5 years …

I need to weigh the depreciation against the R depreciation as well... they are both likely going down by 3k/yr IMO.. maybe not but should check out the used market on both cars

[max225]

Historically speaking a Camry hybrid is rapidly depreciating though …

You should weigh any “fuel savings” as against a 50% depreciation over the next 5 years …

I need to weigh the depreciation against the R depreciation as well... they are both likely going down by 3k/yr IMO.. maybe not but should check out the used market on both cars

Depends on how you want to look at it… In some way yes. Current golf R values will likely drop by 3k a year. But there is a price floor for R golfs around 15/20k camrys free fall to $5000.

However a new Camry will need $0 maintenance for 2 years and maybe $100 in year 3.

[Tar]

A shop guy that i deal with is wanting to make me a deal on my R. 30k and he's going to throw me his turo for a couple months so he can have it sooner. The spread is 7k after tax, I think I might make this deal. I kind of like the hybrid/large sedan concept

Edit: two hrs later and he is still msg me about it, has plans right away to add intercooler, 100% catless, intake, tune, dsg tune. It will unceremoniously be turned into a shop project. His turo is a Fiat 500 on Blizzak snows

I get to beat on it when it's all kitted out as an added bonus.

[wap]

A shop guy that i deal with is wanting to make me a deal on my R. 30k and he's going to throw me his turo for a couple months so he can have it sooner. The spread is 7k after tax, I think I might make this deal. I kind of like the hybrid/large sedan concept

Edit: two hrs later and he is still msg me about it, has plans right away to add intercooler, 100% catless, intake, tune, dsg tune. It will unceremoniously be turned into a shop project. His turo is a Fiat 500 on Blizzak snows

I get to beat on it when it's all kitted out as an added bonus.

for your but in4impressionsonthe500

[Tar]

A shop guy that i deal with is wanting to make me a deal on my R. 30k and he's going to throw me his turo for a couple months so he can have it sooner. The spread is 7k after tax, I think I might make this deal. I kind of like the hybrid/large sedan concept

Edit: two hrs later and he is still msg me about it, has plans right away to add intercooler, 100% catless, intake, tune, dsg tune. It will unceremoniously be turned into a shop project. His turo is a Fiat 500 on Blizzak snows

I get to beat on it when it's all kitted out as an added bonus.

for your but in4impressionsonthe500

Yeah man, the has been a good car, tough to pass up the offers on it
Who knows, I might still drive it into the ground for 4 more years and am confident that it will take the miles like a tank.