General Economic chit chat/updates.

[golftdibrad1]

bruh, outside cali 100k a year is good frekin money. Also Im sure they are talking about AGI in all this so real salary if your AGI is 125 is more like 150+.

anywho, came across this and i bet you especially will enjoy it re: the student loan thing. Lots of insights there.
https://boriquagato.substack.com/p/cont ... he-schools

Oh I am quite acutely aware of the inflation in the costs of college. Look no further than professors making 500k at Berkeley per year teaching for 5 hrs a week.

I thought the analysis of the 5% vs 10% caps was interesting. How basically school will be an income based repayment plan for 10 year moving forward, and the write-offs from the feds are going to explode over the next 10 years.

[ChrisoftheNorth]

that said there is always a factor in everyones life... I want to the house I DGAF. Same like I did with the tesla. I have no qualms being a bum renter.

I just hate sharing walls with people, but renting a shitbox house could be aite.

Our house is probably worth double what we paid at this point, but it's so damned cheap (mortgage/insurane/taxes/utilities all-in expenses $1,600/mo) I'd feel stupid selling it, even for the decent profit. I'll never be able to afford a place like this again, and I really value having minimal monthly obligations for my own mental freedom.

I should probably look at my 401k's. They're just in target year retirement funds, which a few "pros" have told me is a pretty way to manage if you just want to set it and forget it like I do. I'm not touching a dime of that money for another 25 years, so if it goes down a bit now.

[max225]

that said there is always a factor in everyones life... I want to the house I DGAF. Same like I did with the tesla. I have no qualms being a bum renter.

I just hate sharing walls with people, but renting a shitbox house could be aite.

Our house is probably worth double what we paid at this point, but it's so damned cheap (mortgage/insurane/taxes/utilities all-in expenses $1,600/mo) I'd feel stupid selling it, even for the decent profit. I'll never be able to afford a place like this again, and I really value having minimal monthly obligations for my own mental freedom.

I should probably look at my 401k's. They're just in target year retirement funds, which a few "pros" have told me is a pretty way to manage if you just want to set it and forget it like I do. I'm not touching a dime of that money for another 25 years, so if it goes down a bit now.

Why rent a shitbox.

[ChrisoftheNorth]

I just hate sharing walls with people, but renting a shitbox house could be aite.

Our house is probably worth double what we paid at this point, but it's so damned cheap (mortgage/insurane/taxes/utilities all-in expenses $1,600/mo) I'd feel stupid selling it, even for the decent profit. I'll never be able to afford a place like this again, and I really value having minimal monthly obligations for my own mental freedom.

I should probably look at my 401k's. They're just in target year retirement funds, which a few "pros" have told me is a pretty way to manage if you just want to set it and forget it like I do. I'm not touching a dime of that money for another 25 years, so if it goes down a bit now.

Why rent a shitbox.

To make it cost effective. Depends entirely on location, but here nice houses start ~$4k/mo (yes, it makes zero sense, I'd never rent a house here at those prices, but it's my best reference point).

So $48k/year and say I made $200k on our house (paid $320k for it, it's worth $600ish at most, dumped $80k into it so far), I'd be in the hole renting after 4 years.

[D Griff]

You're making me tempted to take my 45% profit and run Rent is steep too though, like $3K/month for something comparable to our house.

Funny that made me come across this - my old Povmahal dick grabber paradise: https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/530- ... 2037_zpid/

I think we paid $825 for this shit box in 2015.

you have to weigh potential downside in your home value vs rent. The run up in prices is completely All the leading indicators are signaling a MAJOR correction. You can't be focused on this monthly payment. If your house is dropping by 100k a year... you can "afford" to pay 6k a month in rent and still be ahead.
Inventories UP
mortgage demand down
interest rates UP
Defaults/foreclosures UP

Also rents are going to tank soon enough also. They have turned stratospheric.

I understand all of that, but I'm not sure I see it in my case.

My costs are like $900ish/month (insurance, taxes, interest, etc.) and I can't really see it dropping $2K/month on a consistent basis, but maybe it's possible. But then you add in the realtor rape associated with selling ($30K under the BEST possible circumstances for me), moving costs, security deposits. seems like quite a gamble. We are also locked in at a 2.5% rate which we may not be able to access in the future

Your house is also like 4-5+X in value so the numbers are quite different.

[max225]

Why rent a shitbox.

To make it cost effective. Depends entirely on location, but here nice houses start ~$4k/mo (yes, it makes zero sense, I'd never rent a house here at those prices, but it's my best reference point).

So $48k/year and say I made $200k on our house (paid $320k for it, it's worth $600ish at most, dumped $80k into it so far), I'd be in the hole renting after 4 years.

Ok I guess I am missing the mark with you guys here. Do you really think rent will stay at 4k a month ? If house prices are in a bubble so are rents. That's kind of the jist here.

Rents/House prices outpaced wage growth 5:1. That is an unsustainable ratio that will soon reach equilibrium, because of basic market fundamentals.

[max225]

you have to weigh potential downside in your home value vs rent. The run up in prices is completely All the leading indicators are signaling a MAJOR correction. You can't be focused on this monthly payment. If your house is dropping by 100k a year... you can "afford" to pay 6k a month in rent and still be ahead.
Inventories UP
mortgage demand down
interest rates UP
Defaults/foreclosures UP

Also rents are going to tank soon enough also. They have turned stratospheric.

I understand all of that, but I'm not sure I see it in my case.

My costs are like $900ish/month (insurance, taxes, interest, etc.) and I can't really see it dropping $2K/month on a consistent basis, but maybe it's possible. But then you add in the realtor rape associated with selling ($30K under the BEST possible circumstances for me), moving costs, security deposits. seems like quite a gamble. We are also locked in at a 2.5% rate which we may not be able to access in the future

Your house is also like 4-5+X in value so the numbers are quite different.

It depends on how you look at things. Your costs are "not" $900 a month, if you take the value of your house into effect. If your house will depreciate by 50k, your "payment" is actually $900 + 4k or $4900 a month. So yes this requires doing some major and figuring out where the market equilibrium is in your area.

The simple math is house prices when you bought your house + real wage growth since... likely around 12% in your area. That's pretty much it... The whole house is an inVesTmeNT card house is going to crumble.

Looking at monthly payments for the house is exactly like looking at monthly payments for a car. That is NOT the real cost/value.

[max225]

that said this is really situational for everyone. If you wanted to unlock capital from the house it seems like now is the time to do it... before it is too late. Clearly if one is emotionally attached to a low payment/houselocation etc.. you can't get away from it. Everything is a function of economics at the end of the day, every situation is different and you got to do what is right for you.

[ChrisoftheNorth]

To make it cost effective. Depends entirely on location, but here nice houses start ~$4k/mo (yes, it makes zero sense, I'd never rent a house here at those prices, but it's my best reference point).

So $48k/year and say I made $200k on our house (paid $320k for it, it's worth $600ish at most, dumped $80k into it so far), I'd be in the hole renting after 4 years.

Ok I guess I am missing the mark with you guys here. Do you really think rent will stay at 4k a month ? If house prices are in a bubble so are rents. That's kind of the jist here.

Rents/House prices outpaced wage growth 5:1. That is an unsustainable ratio that will soon reach equilibrium, because of basic market fundamentals.

If I sold the house tomorrow, I'd need a place to stay tomorrow, and that's $4k/mo. The landlord will never lower rent and likely require a year lease, so I'd have to move again in a year when the lease was up to a cheaper place when available. Then again in a year assuming things gradually come down and not crash. That's a lot of moving that I'm too old for now, and I'm not looking at clearing millions here, so it's just not worth it to me.

You're right that it's all situational. The economics work on paper and could work for some IRL, I just don't see it for me or most TBH.

In your situation where you could clear the entire sales price of my house, that would be worth additional thought.

[max225]

Ok I guess I am missing the mark with you guys here. Do you really think rent will stay at 4k a month ? If house prices are in a bubble so are rents. That's kind of the jist here.

Rents/House prices outpaced wage growth 5:1. That is an unsustainable ratio that will soon reach equilibrium, because of basic market fundamentals.

If I sold the house tomorrow, I'd need a place to stay tomorrow, and that's $4k/mo. The landlord will never lower rent and likely require a year lease, so I'd have to move again in a year when the lease was up to a cheaper place when available. Then again in a year assuming things gradually come down and not crash. That's a lot of moving that I'm too old for now, and I'm not looking at clearing millions here, so it's just not worth it to me.

You're right that it's all situational. The economics work on paper and could work for some IRL, I just don't see it for me or most TBH.

In your situation where you could clear the entire sales price of my house, that would be worth additional thought.

Right spot on. It would be a 4k stay for the next year, that's a given. Say you pay the cash up front... The big BET here is that your house will depreciate above that rate and you would get rid of the carrying cost on top of that... Which is your 2.5-5% interest on the loan + prop taxes and maintenance and repair. Because now its someone else's problem.

And the hassle... is true and the rapy agents stealing 7% for 2 hrs of work and a RE sign... So the margin in the house has to be significant enough to offset all of the above.

Those are the offsets... and given individual cases I was still thinking about buying another/bigger property down the line either way. So this was a way to secure some of these "gains" tax free.. to be able to put them towards the new home whenever prices equalize.

Now these are all major BIG bets that are not for the faint of heart. Yet I can justify the bets at least in my mind by solid financial data... But one never knows what would happen either, the unknown is still there... say houses just for whatever reason keep climbing up the un-affordability scale because that's normal... or if the dollar completely disappears... or if another world war happens. We just don't know.

Just a brain dump on how to capitalize on the biggest asset appreciation most of us have been part of.

[Tar]

If I sold the house tomorrow, I'd need a place to stay tomorrow, and that's $4k/mo. The landlord will never lower rent and likely require a year lease, so I'd have to move again in a year when the lease was up to a cheaper place when available. Then again in a year assuming things gradually come down and not crash. That's a lot of moving that I'm too old for now, and I'm not looking at clearing millions here, so it's just not worth it to me.

You're right that it's all situational. The economics work on paper and could work for some IRL, I just don't see it for me or most TBH.

In your situation where you could clear the entire sales price of my house, that would be worth additional thought.

Right spot on. It would be a 4k stay for the next year, that's a given. Say you pay the cash up front... The big BET here is that your house will depreciate above that rate and you would get rid of the carrying cost on top of that... Which is your 2.5-5% interest on the loan + prop taxes and maintenance and repair. Because now its someone else's problem.

And the hassle... is true and the rapy agents stealing 7% for 2 hrs of work and a RE sign... So the margin in the house has to be significant enough to offset all of the above.

Those are the offsets... and given individual cases I was still thinking about buying another/bigger property down the line either way. So this was a way to secure some of these "gains" tax free.. to be able to put them towards the new home whenever prices equalize.

Now these are all major BIG bets that are not for the faint of heart. Yet I can justify the bets at least in my mind by solid financial data... But one never knows what would happen either, the unknown is still there... say houses just for whatever reason keep climbing up the un-affordability scale because that's normal... or if the dollar completely disappears... or if another world war happens. We just don't know.

Just a brain dump on how to capitalize on the biggest asset appreciation most of us have been part of.

I'm farting around with these thoughts about my rental cottage. What give me major pause is the rate hikes, I'm almost convinced that they will pause in September and stop climbing as the economy sputters. We are already 10% off of peak home pricing here, and another 10% just doesn't cover the closing costs on selling and then buying back for me, especially since it would all be capital gainzz profit. If I sold at absolute peak which I also kind of wanted to do, and Nicole and I talked about extensively, then maybe we could be slightly ahead.... But we decided to stick to the long game on the cottage, and as long as possible on our primary res. I'm predicting a 3-5 yr flatline at peak-20%, and then resume its upward trend.

Your case may be different, depending on what kind of circumstances we'll be seeing between now and the absolute bottom. Still, it must make you wonder how far down this worm hole the .gov is willing to go. Just like the era, I doubt that the spending will come to a stop, or the inflation curbing will ever be top priority.

[D Griff]

I understand all of that, but I'm not sure I see it in my case.

My costs are like $900ish/month (insurance, taxes, interest, etc.) and I can't really see it dropping $2K/month on a consistent basis, but maybe it's possible. But then you add in the realtor rape associated with selling ($30K under the BEST possible circumstances for me), moving costs, security deposits. seems like quite a gamble. We are also locked in at a 2.5% rate which we may not be able to access in the future

Your house is also like 4-5+X in value so the numbers are quite different.

It depends on how you look at things. Your costs are "not" $900 a month, if you take the value of your house into effect. If your house will depreciate by 50k, your "payment" is actually $900 + 4k or $4900 a month. So yes this requires doing some major and figuring out where the market equilibrium is in your area.

The simple math is house prices when you bought your house + real wage growth since... likely around 12% in your area. That's pretty much it... The whole house is an inVesTmeNT card house is going to crumble.

Looking at monthly payments for the house is exactly like looking at monthly payments for a car. That is NOT the real cost/value.

Depreciation is only a cost if you sell at that low point.

I did the whole move every year to different rentals as they try to raise rent by 20% every time shithole game for 10 years and don’t want to do that again on a gamble. It’s a nice thought, we could probably get close to $200k out of our house after real estate fuckery and use that to get a better place if things drop significantly but that’s a big gamble.

[golftdibrad1]

The simple math is house prices when you bought your house + real wage growth since... likely around 12% in your area. That's pretty much it... The whole house is an inVesTmeNT card house is going to crumble.

Looking at monthly payments for the house is exactly like looking at monthly payments for a car. That is NOT the real cost/value.

no one on this board has EVER said that before

Depreciation is only a cost if you sell at that low point.

I did the whole move every year to different rentals as they try to raise rent by 20% every time shithole game for 10 years and don’t want to do that again on a gamble. It’s a nice thought, we could probably get close to $200k out of our house after real estate fuckery and use that to get a better place if things drop significantly but that’s a big gamble.

There is something to be said about stability, fixed expenses, not moving every year or two, putting down roots, etc etc.

I've always said its its a bad idea to look at your primary residence as an investment over the short term. Sure, you might make some, might lose some, but it's the best game in town for most people. It's a hedge against inflation. It's not pissing 100% of your money away on rent, esp if you don't move for a decade or so. Putting all your eggs in the 'house' basket as an investment is a terrible idea. But not playing the house game if can afford to is also a bad idea.

[CaleDeRoo]

Dan I have an extra bedroom

[CaleDeRoo]

Thanks for the reminder though Max. I should try to access all my investment accounts this weekend and make sure they're where they might need to be for the next couple years.

[ChrisoftheNorth]

The simple math is house prices when you bought your house + real wage growth since... likely around 12% in your area. That's pretty much it... The whole house is an inVesTmeNT card house is going to crumble.

Looking at monthly payments for the house is exactly like looking at monthly payments for a car. That is NOT the real cost/value.

no one on this board has EVER said that before

Depreciation is only a cost if you sell at that low point.

I did the whole move every year to different rentals as they try to raise rent by 20% every time shithole game for 10 years and don’t want to do that again on a gamble. It’s a nice thought, we could probably get close to $200k out of our house after real estate fuckery and use that to get a better place if things drop significantly but that’s a big gamble.

There is something to be said about stability, fixed expenses, not moving every year or two, putting down roots, etc etc.

I've always said its its a bad idea to look at your primary residence as an investment over the short term. Sure, you might make some, might lose some, but it's the best game in town for most people. It's a hedge against inflation. It's not pissing 100% of your money away on rent, esp if you don't move for a decade or so. Putting all your eggs in the 'house' basket as an investment is a terrible idea. But not playing the house game if can afford to is also a bad idea.

It's tough because as Max pointed out, some people have epic equity in their houses. Like in CA, he's probably looking at half a mil PLUS in profit, which would be tough to ignore. Those of us morans that live in more modest areas don't get that sort of increase, and makes the case a bit harder to make IMO. Treating the house as a shelter rather than an investment makes more sense for most, but it is all situational.

Also, I've got a 2.6% 30 year fixed mortgage on our house. That will never happen again, and it's cheaper for me to keep that debt than pay the house off or buy a new house with more than double the interest rate. With less than $200k owed on the note, it's hard for me to off this place. If we wanted to move, we'd move states, but I'd be really tempted to hold onto this place because it's so cheap, has direct deeded access to Lake Michigan (which once the west is completely dry, could be worth something), and can continue to be my get away. I suspect there's a lot of people with these stupid low interest rates that keep them set where they are.

[D Griff]

Dan I have an extra bedroom

somehow I don’t see the wife going for that.

[golftdibrad1]

no one on this board has EVER said that before



There is something to be said about stability, fixed expenses, not moving every year or two, putting down roots, etc etc.

I've always said its its a bad idea to look at your primary residence as an investment over the short term. Sure, you might make some, might lose some, but it's the best game in town for most people. It's a hedge against inflation. It's not pissing 100% of your money away on rent, esp if you don't move for a decade or so. Putting all your eggs in the 'house' basket as an investment is a terrible idea. But not playing the house game if can afford to is also a bad idea.

It's tough because as Max pointed out, some people have epic equity in their houses. Like in CA, he's probably looking at half a mil PLUS in profit, which would be tough to ignore. Those of us morans that live in more modest areas don't get that sort of increase, and makes the case a bit harder to make IMO. Treating the house as a shelter rather than an investment makes more sense for most, but it is all situational.

Also, I've got a 2.6% 30 year fixed mortgage on our house. That will never happen again, and it's cheaper for me to keep that debt than pay the house off or buy a new house with more than double the interest rate. With less than $200k owed on the note, it's hard for me to off this place. If we wanted to move, we'd move states, but I'd be really tempted to hold onto this place because it's so cheap, has direct deeded access to Lake Michigan (which once the west is completely dry, could be worth something), and can continue to be my get away. I suspect there's a lot of people with these stupid low interest rates that keep them set where they are.

yes, i think we are at 2.75% on our house. combined with inflation the bank is almost paying me to live there. I won't be moving again anytime soon, you'd have to drag me away.

[ChrisoftheNorth]

It's tough because as Max pointed out, some people have epic equity in their houses. Like in CA, he's probably looking at half a mil PLUS in profit, which would be tough to ignore. Those of us morans that live in more modest areas don't get that sort of increase, and makes the case a bit harder to make IMO. Treating the house as a shelter rather than an investment makes more sense for most, but it is all situational.

Also, I've got a 2.6% 30 year fixed mortgage on our house. That will never happen again, and it's cheaper for me to keep that debt than pay the house off or buy a new house with more than double the interest rate. With less than $200k owed on the note, it's hard for me to off this place. If we wanted to move, we'd move states, but I'd be really tempted to hold onto this place because it's so cheap, has direct deeded access to Lake Michigan (which once the west is completely dry, could be worth something), and can continue to be my get away. I suspect there's a lot of people with these stupid low interest rates that keep them set where they are.

yes, i think we are at 2.75% on our house. combined with inflation the bank is almost paying me to live there. I won't be moving again anytime soon, you'd have to drag me away.

With inflation over the last year, I've found a lot of comfort in knowing the bank is paying me to live here. I'd need to clear serious cash to consider selling this place, plus I hate moving, done it more than I care to now.

[Tar]

Here's a more Canadian perspective on the real estate :doom: , there is going to be more downward pressure on prices but much of the damage is already done with RE prices being hit with a 17% drop from peak. I gotta say that peak house prices were , and I'm happy about the pullback even as a home owner.

Not a terrible read, and kind of what we were expecting:

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/topstor ... 20f73c6119

Unpredictable interest rate changes can make all the difference. Also, Canadian gov says that the pandemic restricted population growth by 1.5MM people or 2.7% and the Libtards plan to accelerate that influx to catch up. That will keep upward pressure on RE on this side of the border.

[ChrisoftheNorth]

Yea, I think a pull-back is a good thing, as long as it's not a crash. It's nice to see shelves no longer bare and everything not sold out everywhere again.

Then again, IDGAF if housing does crash. That's the nice thing about buying on the low end of the spectrum. Just losing fake money, really.

[max225]

It depends on how you look at things. Your costs are "not" $900 a month, if you take the value of your house into effect. If your house will depreciate by 50k, your "payment" is actually $900 + 4k or $4900 a month. So yes this requires doing some major and figuring out where the market equilibrium is in your area.

The simple math is house prices when you bought your house + real wage growth since... likely around 12% in your area. That's pretty much it... The whole house is an inVesTmeNT card house is going to crumble.

Looking at monthly payments for the house is exactly like looking at monthly payments for a car. That is NOT the real cost/value.

Depreciation is only a cost if you sell at that low point.

I did the whole move every year to different rentals as they try to raise rent by 20% every time shithole game for 10 years and don’t want to do that again on a gamble. It’s a nice thought, we could probably get close to $200k out of our house after real estate fuckery and use that to get a better place if things drop significantly but that’s a big gamble.

And profit is profit if you sell at the all time high which by all indications will decrease. I think that's really the key driver here and that applies to all here.

If your house is losing value annually... does it matter how "low" your payment is. Maybe I am a wee bit older than some here... but living as a homeowner from 2009-14 was abysmal. The property lost 50% of value and didn't recover for 10 years... to prior peaks... 10 mfking years... I was locked in.. .couldn't move... lost all equity etc. Even refinancing was hard as I barely had 20% equity after 5+ years of payments. I could have bought 2 properties with the gains if sold at a high and been retired by now if I just didn't close my eyes with blinders...


That said... as far as my personal situation. My woman will likely not want to "move the nice area" so all of this is a moot point.

Given that I live in a zip code of a tiny city with almost no rentals, and we have "the cheapest house on the block" were fucked... I would love to cash out even though I'd have to pay realtors 6 figures for fucking nothing... The gains in the house are like a DECADE OF WORK POST TAX... like that's at the moment... how can I just sit here and watch that crumble. Maybe I am thinking small?! And just it is what it is.... but I feel like unlocking that money and using it for other things would be better than continuing the rat race.

But I just think prop values are inflated beyond belief because properties turned into "investments" which they are not... they usually move slightly higher than inflation... the past couple of years they have outpaced inflation 5X1 which is WAYYYY off normal. Correction is coming just like a correction is coming for the new and used car market. It's just economics.

[ChrisoftheNorth]

Depreciation is only a cost if you sell at that low point.

I did the whole move every year to different rentals as they try to raise rent by 20% every time shithole game for 10 years and don’t want to do that again on a gamble. It’s a nice thought, we could probably get close to $200k out of our house after real estate fuckery and use that to get a better place if things drop significantly but that’s a big gamble.

And profit is profit if you sell at the all time high which by all indications will decrease. I think that's really the key driver here and that applies to all here.

If your house is losing value annually... does it matter how "low" your payment is. Maybe I am a wee bit older than some here... but living as a homeowner from 2009-14 was abysmal. The property lost 50% of value and didn't recover for 10 years... to prior peaks... 10 mfking years... I was locked in.. .couldn't move... lost all equity etc. Even refinancing was hard as I barely had 20% equity after 5+ years of payments. I could have bought 2 properties with the gains if sold at a high and been retired by now if I just didn't close my eyes with blinders...


That said... as far as my personal situation. My woman will likely not want to "move the nice area" so all of this is a moot point.

Given that I live in a zip code of a tiny city with almost no rentals, and we have "the cheapest house on the block" were fucked... I would love to cash out even though I'd have to pay realtors 6 figures for fucking nothing... The gains in the house are like a DECADE OF WORK POST TAX... like that's at the moment... how can I just sit here and watch that crumble. Maybe I am thinking small?! And just it is what it is.... but I feel like unlocking that money and using it for other things would be better than continuing the rat race.

But I just think prop values are inflated beyond belief because properties turned into "investments" which they are not... they usually move slightly higher than inflation... the past couple of years they have outpaced inflation 5X1 which is WAYYYY off normal. Correction is coming just like a correction is coming for the new and used car market. It's just economics.

The question is, what will cause your area to tank? Where I live makes absolutely zero sense, and I agree will tank. Probably hard. But where you are, 09 won't happen again. The market has fundamentally shifted with cash foreign investment, there's a strong labor market with extremely high paying jobs (probably highest in the country?), there's always demand for the weather and location, I think you're letting PTSD from 09 cloud your judgement.

You mentioned maybe buying a larger house, which cashing out now, renting until prices normalize, then buying a bigger place with your proceeds could make sense. That's about it unless you want to leave your area entirely and live like a king somewhere generally more affordable. That's the way, but then you're forgoing future gainz and whatnot.

[max225]

And profit is profit if you sell at the all time high which by all indications will decrease. I think that's really the key driver here and that applies to all here.

If your house is losing value annually... does it matter how "low" your payment is. Maybe I am a wee bit older than some here... but living as a homeowner from 2009-14 was abysmal. The property lost 50% of value and didn't recover for 10 years... to prior peaks... 10 mfking years... I was locked in.. .couldn't move... lost all equity etc. Even refinancing was hard as I barely had 20% equity after 5+ years of payments. I could have bought 2 properties with the gains if sold at a high and been retired by now if I just didn't close my eyes with blinders...


That said... as far as my personal situation. My woman will likely not want to "move the nice area" so all of this is a moot point.

Given that I live in a zip code of a tiny city with almost no rentals, and we have "the cheapest house on the block" were fucked... I would love to cash out even though I'd have to pay realtors 6 figures for fucking nothing... The gains in the house are like a DECADE OF WORK POST TAX... like that's at the moment... how can I just sit here and watch that crumble. Maybe I am thinking small?! And just it is what it is.... but I feel like unlocking that money and using it for other things would be better than continuing the rat race.

But I just think prop values are inflated beyond belief because properties turned into "investments" which they are not... they usually move slightly higher than inflation... the past couple of years they have outpaced inflation 5X1 which is WAYYYY off normal. Correction is coming just like a correction is coming for the new and used car market. It's just economics.

The question is, what will cause your area to tank?

Ok... I'll address this.
*Pay in my area is WAY down... yes its highest in the country... but given the stock market moves in the last 9 months most have lost 30-40% of income
**Interest rates have driven the average payment up 40%
***average house price up 40%
**** average house payment from 2020 to 2022 has gone UP 100% with the above two compounding issues. My literal house is 12k a month to own... and its a POS from 1974... granted in a really nice town. I don't see WHO CAN AFFORD SUCH INSANITY.
*****our taxes are insane on higher income folks.. so even if you make say 300k 60% will go to taxes and the general COL is just non sustainable. This is the same everywhere really at the moment, and why I am so concerned about a correction

[ChrisoftheNorth]

The question is, what will cause your area to tank?

Ok... I'll address this.
*Pay in my area is WAY down... yes its highest in the country... but given the stock market moves in the last 9 months most have lost 30-40% of income
**Interest rates have driven the average payment up 40%
***average house price up 40%
**** average house payment from 2020 to 2022 has gone UP 100% with the above two compounding issues. My literal house is 12k a month to own... and its a POS from 1974... granted in a really nice town. I don't see WHO CAN AFFORD SUCH INSANITY.
*****our taxes are insane on higher income folks.. so even if you make say 300k 60% will go to taxes and the general COL is just non sustainable. This is the same everywhere really at the moment, and why I am so concerned about a correction

These are headwinds everywhere. I don't really see what's unique in your area that will be worse than others, other than a 20% drop on $1M is worse than $500k.

In fact, I'd still argue that your area is more sustainable than others. There's absolutely zero reason that houses should start at 500k where I am. There's no jobs, the weather is shit 6mos of the year, local business are still decimated by "employment shortages" so you can't really shop or go out whenever you want, there's zero logical reason for my area to be so expensive. This happened all over the country. I was shocked to look at zillow in some of the truly nowhere places we drove through Nebraska, South Dakota, Minnesota, etc last week to find houses starting around $300k for crapboxes. These areas are gonna TANK because there's no fundamental reason for the prices to be so high.

You don't have those problems. Kind of like the car market where buying cars with traditionally high resale value makes the most sense right now to mitigate exposure to value crash risk. Your area has always been in high demand with high house values, and that didn't change in the last few years, so probably never will.