Irish wrote: ↑Sun Jul 18, 2021 5:54 pm
What's the demographic on them other than vaccination? Of the 60% of seriously ill that are vaccinated, what are their age groups, co morbidities etc?. Are these single or double jabbed people?
WE are not "about half as likely to fall seriously ill" as we were pre vaccine because there are many other factors that go into that (age, co-morbidities etc) .
The 1.6% versus 4% is for all cases, not just vaccinated. This is a significant overall reduction. But remember that not everyone is vaccinated. So it skews the 1.6% number up.
From your cited article: The highest number of coronavirus cases in nearly four months was diagnosed on Friday – 1,118 people, according to the Health Ministry’s Saturday night report. .....
While the spike in daily cases continues, the increase in serious morbidity has risen in a more limited way. Of those infected, some 58 were in serious condition, according to the ministry – an increase of six people over the weekend.
1118 (total new cases cited by your article) x 56% (Percentage of population jabbed twice *)= 626 fully vaccinated people tested positive
58 (total positives in serious condition) x 56% (fully vaccinated) = 32 fully vaccinated, seriously ill
32 seriously ill /626 x 100 = 5.1% of seriously ill amongst the fully vaccinated portion of the new cases.
Yes this is higher than it should be and I don’t doubt that the variant is playing a big part of that but the "60% of currently seriously ill are vaccinated" reeks of a fear mongering statistic to me. Because the over all number of seriously ill has fallen dramatically. It stands to reason that as more people are vaccinated that the percentage of vaccinated l people that are seriously ill (at any given moment) will be relatively high. If all people were vaccinated, the percentage of "current" seriously ill would be 100%. It may also be that the vaccines are wearing off, Idk....
After writing this last paragraph, I found this
Just one serious COVID patient in Israel is both vaccinated and under 60 — TV Report indicates more than 60% of those hospitalized with coronavirus are fully vaccinated, but almost all are over age 60
By AMY SPIRO Today, 10:50 pm
Only one of 61 Israelis hospitalized with COVID in serious condition is a fully vaccinated individual under the age of 60, Channel 12 news reported Sunday, citing Health Ministry figures.
According to the report, 24 of those in serious condition are unvaccinated, while 37 are fully vaccinated. The lone seriously ill fully vaccinated person under 60 was in the 50-59 age group.
No fully vaccinated individuals under age 50 were in serious condition.
(the numbers are slightly off of my calculations likely because of rounding on my part or on the source article's part, plus the latest article is using slightly higher numbers to begin with)
This is a very deceiving stat. Yes Louisiana has very low vaccination rates (40%) (lagging most of the country). But the vaccine wasn't truly available until MAY... and most cases happened Feb>May as is, as we're coming off that giant thanksgiving/NY wave.
So this comparable is essentially stating "most people died were unvaccinated" that's not But you have compare apples to apples, and not twist the data to force the narrative. There is not much of a correlation/causation here. And it is sad to see data presented in such an incorrect way.
I think most articles are bending data to be on the alarmist side. Because it gets more clicks. Not saying there are things to be concerned about, there certainly are..... but the media sucks.
“If you torture data long enough, it will confess to anything”
-- Ronald Coase, 1991 Nobel Prize in Economics.
Irish wrote: ↑Mon Jul 19, 2021 3:15 pm
I think most articles are bending data to be on the alarmist side. Because it gets more clicks. Not saying there are things to be concerned about, there certainly are..... but the media sucks.
“If you torture data long enough, it will confess to anything”
-- Ronald Coase, 1991 Nobel Prize in Economics.
I think there is plenty to be alarmed about right now. Everything is fully open, we're at record vaccination rates and the cases are spiking. That's a recipe for complete disaster.
Personally I would short cruiseline/Airline stock. That shit is going to tank as global curbs will start to be re-instated.
Irish wrote: ↑Mon Jul 19, 2021 3:15 pm
I think most articles are bending data to be on the alarmist side. Because it gets more clicks. Not saying there are things to be concerned about, there certainly are..... but the media sucks.
“If you torture data long enough, it will confess to anything”
-- Ronald Coase, 1991 Nobel Prize in Economics.
I think there is plenty to be alarmed about right now. Everything is fully open, we're at record vaccination rates and the cases are spiking. That's a recipe for complete disaster.
Personally I would short cruiseline/Airline stock. That shit is going to tank as global curbs will start to be re-instated.
Nice. I have 3 airline flights scheduled in the next 3 months.
Detroit wrote:Buy 911s instead of diamonds.
Johnny_P wrote: ↑Thu Feb 09, 2023 3:21 pm
Earn it and burn it, Val.
max225 wrote: ↑Mon May 01, 2023 5:35 pm
Yes it's a cool car. But prepare the lube/sawdust.
I think there is plenty to be alarmed about right now. Everything is fully open, we're at record vaccination rates and the cases are spiking. That's a recipe for complete disaster.
Personally I would short cruiseline/Airline stock. That shit is going to tank as global curbs will start to be re-instated.
Nice. I have 3 airline flights scheduled in the next 3 months.
I think there is plenty to be alarmed about right now. Everything is fully open, we're at record vaccination rates and the cases are spiking. That's a recipe for complete disaster.
Personally I would short cruiseline/Airline stock. That shit is going to tank as global curbs will start to be re-instated.
Nice. I have 3 airline flights scheduled in the next 3 months.
I put a hard pass on airline travel for this year with the wife because I fully expected a variant to come through a wipe everything out again. Seems like that could very likely happen, plus people are getting pretty shitty in general toward each other now, and being locked in a tube with a bunch of just doesn't appeal to me in the least. If we go somewhere, we're driving. That includes out west or anywhere.
Desertbreh wrote: ↑Tue Oct 10, 2017 6:40 pm
My guess would be that Chris took some time off because he has read the dialogue on this page 1,345 times and decided to spend some of his free time doing something besides beating a horse to death.
Nice. I have 3 airline flights scheduled in the next 3 months.
I put a hard pass on airline travel for this year with the wife because I fully expected a variant to come through a wipe everything out again. Seems like that could very likely happen, plus people are getting pretty shitty in general toward each other now, and being locked in a tube with a bunch of just doesn't appeal to me in the least. If we go somewhere, we're driving. That includes out west or anywhere.
[/quote
Well the last flight is to SF for a work related conference and I expect the whole thing to get annihilated and then put online again as it should have been in the first place..........that will make me
The first two.........one is to Hawaii and one is a hunting trip. On the latter I will just drive if I need to. I fly in the front of the bus these days but yeah, much
Detroit wrote:Buy 911s instead of diamonds.
Johnny_P wrote: ↑Thu Feb 09, 2023 3:21 pm
Earn it and burn it, Val.
max225 wrote: ↑Mon May 01, 2023 5:35 pm
Yes it's a cool car. But prepare the lube/sawdust.
So here is my prediction for the timeline...
Get everyone vaccinated (March 21-June 21)
Blame unvaccinated for surge (June 21)
Refuse to acknowledge vaccine shortfalls (June-Sep 21)
Skew data to show that vaccines help 90%+ as this is the only solution for now (June 21) Pin vaxxed and unvaxxed against one another in order to avoid talking about real issues at hand <<<we are here
Start rolling back "open" statuses as hospitals will start becoming overwhelmed (End of July/August while red states will continue to fight this)
Acknowledge that vaccines may not be effective but still blame unvaccinated (Sep/oct 21)
Bring out Pfizer/BioNtech news that that a solution is in the works (Sep/Oct 21)
Bring back even more restrictive lock downs because things are spiraling out of control while still blaming unvaccinated (Holidays 21)
Continue to egg on the population against eachother instead of admitting that early prevention in (Jun/July and admittance that vaccines are infective should have resulted in more lock downs). (Nov>Dec 21)
Booster shot availability for the rich/famous/politicians (December 21)
Peak variant and subsequent declines due to everyone having had it + vaccines (dec-March)
Booster shot availability for the common man (March 2022)
Back to normal for 2 months
New variant and rinse and repeat
Desertbreh wrote: ↑Tue Jul 20, 2021 2:02 pm
You're a ray of sunshine, Marshal Zhukov.
I can't ever quit you.
No Max, but I don't sit there and focus on things that are beyond my control.
I'm trying to enjoy my life as much as I can while doing what I need to do to protect myself.
Whether a month from COVID, or 50 years from now, one day my card will be punched.
4zilch wrote: ↑Mon Apr 12, 2021 8:46 am
I'm a fucking failure.
Desertbreh wrote: ↑Tue Jul 20, 2021 2:02 pm
You're a ray of sunshine, Marshal Zhukov.
Yea, but I think it's a pretty accurate forecast of events. I'd be surprised if it differed by much more than a month here and there.
Desertbreh wrote: ↑Tue Oct 10, 2017 6:40 pm
My guess would be that Chris took some time off because he has read the dialogue on this page 1,345 times and decided to spend some of his free time doing something besides beating a horse to death.
Desertbreh wrote: ↑Tue Jul 20, 2021 2:02 pm
You're a ray of sunshine, Marshal Zhukov.
I can't ever quit you.
No Max, but I don't sit there and focus on things that are beyond my control.
I'm trying to enjoy my life as much as I can while doing what I need to do to protect myself.
Whether a month from COVID, or 50 years from now, one day my card will be punched.
There are things you can do to control whether or not you will get the Vid. Plenty of precautions to be taken.
But feel free to continue to shitpost, I’ll just keep ignoring those comments. Others may want to learn a thing or two from these things as they are developing rapidly at the moment.
, Irish! 
But you have compare apples to apples, and not twist the data to force the narrative. There is not much of a correlation/causation here. And it is sad to see data presented in such an incorrect way.
just doesn't appeal to me in the least. If we go somewhere, we're driving. That includes out west or anywhere.
